Riding profile

Taillon

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Taillon: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Taillon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 22% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lionel Carmant

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
17.1
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 41.3%
  • PLQ 21.8%
  • CAQ 19.9%
  • QS 9.5%
  • PCQ 6.4%
  • Other 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ CAQ QS
HereTaillon 41.3%21.8%19.9%9.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +11.2 27.2% −5.4 20.3% −0.4 8.3% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
21.2 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lionel Carmant Elected CAQ 14,635 41.5 —
Andrée-Anne Bouvette-Turcot PQ 7,160 20.3 —
Manon Blanchard QS 6,663 18.9 —
Omar Cissé PLQ 4,096 11.6 —
Pierre-Marc Boyer PCQ 2,280 6.5 —
Frédéric Ouellet Other 336 0.9 —
Pierre Savignac Other 86 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026