Riding profile

Taillon

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Taillon: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
13.4
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 37.2%

    Sandra Hernández

  • CAQ 22.3%

    Stéphane Lavoie

  • QLP 18.4%

    Boubacar Camara

  • QS 11.3%

    David Lalumière

  • PCQ 9.9%

    Samuel Bérubé

  • Other 0.8%

    Samuel Pignedoli Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP QS
HereTaillon 37.2%22.3%18.4%11.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +9.3 21.3% +1.0 23.4% −5.0 9.6% +1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Taillon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 22% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lionel Carmant

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Stéphane Lavoie

    Stéphane Lavoie

    Actively involved in the performing arts and culture sectors for 35 years, Stéphane Lavoie has devoted his career to showcasing Quebec expertise and contributing to the economic, cultural, and social development of communities. For more than 20 years as General Manager of TOHU, the Cité des arts du cirque, he led major projects and worked closely with various partners from the cultural, community, institutional, and governmental sectors. With his team, he helped make TOHU an important driver of social inclusion and positioned Quebec as a global reference in the performing arts. Currently responsible for supporting elected officials at the Ville de Montréal, he contributes to the international attractiveness of the metropolis. Beyond cultural outreach, his career is also marked by sustained commitment, particularly in the socio-professional integration of young people and eco-responsible development. Recognized for his listening skills, judgment, and ability to mobilize people around meaningful projects, he places consultation and collaboration at the heart of his approach. With a career that has earned him several distinctions, including the title of Chevalier de l'Ordre des Arts et des Lettres of the French Republic and the Prix du gestionnaire culturel from HEC Montréal, Stéphane Lavoie wishes to put his expertise at the service of the people of Taillon with the same determination to bring people together and contribute concretely to the development of the community.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Samuel Pignedoli

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Samuel Bérubé

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sandra Hernández

    Sandra Hernández

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Boubacar Camara

    Boubacar Camara

    At only 26 years old, Boubacar Camara embodies a new generation of engaged leaders determined to bring politics closer to the daily realities of citizens. A former banker and now a policy analyst at Health Canada, he puts his expertise at the service of the public by contributing to the development of policies that address major economic and social challenges. Over the course of his career, he has worked on several files of national importance, notably contributing to the development of the 2023, 2024, and 2025 federal budgets. He has also supported several ministers and senior officials in taking up their duties by contributing to the strategic preparation of their transition. These experiences have given him a solid understanding of how the State operates, of public finances, and of the issues that directly affect citizens. Holding a specialized bachelor's degree in economics and an MBA, Boubacar Camara is driven by a deep desire to serve the population. The son of a police officer engaged internationally in the defence of women's rights, he grew up with the values of service, integrity, and commitment to the community. Young, bilingual, and from an immigrant background, he understands the challenges facing new generations, whether the cost of living, access to housing, or economic integration. He now wishes to put his energy, expertise, and commitment at the service of the citizens of Taillon in order to help build a more prosperous, more inclusive Quebec that is resolutely turned toward the future. × I commit to voting for Boubacar Camara as member for the Taillon constituency

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    David Lalumière

    David Lalumière

    David Lalumière is a sociologist, homelessness outreach worker, former primary- and secondary-school teacher, and activist committed to opposing the far right. For Taillon, he wants to respond to the urgent issues of housing, poverty, inequality and social justice. He advocates a more humane politics focused on social justice, democracy, gender equality and ecology.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
21.2 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lionel Carmant Elected CAQ 14,635 41.5
Andrée-Anne Bouvette-Turcot PQ 7,160 20.3
Manon Blanchard QS 6,663 18.9
Omar Cissé QLP 4,096 11.6
Pierre-Marc Boyer PCQ 2,280 6.5
Frédéric Ouellet Other 336 0.9
Pierre Savignac Other 86 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026