Riding profile

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 36% for Québec solidaire, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alexandre Leduc

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Béatrice Hodonou

    Béatrice Hodonou

    Béatrice Hodonou is a manager in the health network and a clinical nurse by training. She holds a Master's degree in Public Administration from the École nationale d'administration publique (ENAP) and is pursuing a doctorate in Public Administration at ENAP, with an interest in user rights, informed consent for care, and access to public services.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Elena Penta

    Elena Penta

    Born in Romania and established in Canada since 1984, Elena built her career around education, knowledge transfer and community service. Trained at McGill University, the University of Montreal and UQAM, she dedicated her career to teaching, guided by the conviction that education is one of the most powerful levers to foster individual success and fulfillment.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Maude Brossard-Sabourin

    Maude Brossard-Sabourin

    Maude holds a master's degree in administration and has been Deputy General Director of the Social Economy Construction Site since 2020. She is a rigorous manager who served on several boards of directors during her career.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
54%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.2%
  • QS 36.0%
  • PLQ 22.2%
  • PCQ 3.5%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QS PLQ PCQ
HereHochelaga-Maisonneuve 36.2%36.0%22.2%3.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +6.1 8.3% +27.7 27.2% −5.0 13.2% −9.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
32.0 pts
Turnout
62.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexandre Leduc Elected QS 12,784 50.8
Rebecca McCann CAQ 4,728 18.8
Stephan Fogaing PQ 4,015 16.0
Line Flore Tchetmi PLQ 1,957 7.8
Louise Poudrier PCQ 1,161 4.6
Wejden Chouchene Other 337 1.3
James Strayer Other 84 0.3
Christine Dandenault Other 78 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026