Riding profile

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques: will QS lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 31% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Manon Massé

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Eli Zytoon

    Eli Zytoon

    Having grown up in a country where politics was synonymous with oppression, Eli Zytoon arrived in Quebec as a refugee. This experience led him to discover the value of democratic institutions and the privilege of being able to participate freely in public life.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Justine McIntyre

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Philippe Schnobb

    Philippe Schnobb

    Journalist for nearly 27 years, Philippe Schnobb was also president of the STM Board of Directors for almost 8 years. Until very recently, he served as coordinator of the follow-up committee for the collective intervention strategy for the Village.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 40.6%
  • PLQ 31.3%
  • QS 21.0%
  • PCQ 4.2%
  • Other 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ QS PCQ
HereSainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques 40.6%31.3%21.0%4.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +10.5 27.2% +4.1 8.3% +12.7 13.2% −9.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
31.8 pts
Turnout
56.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Manon Massé Elected QS 10,892 47.7 —
Christopher Baenninger PLQ 3,621 15.8 —
Phoeby Laplante PQ 3,362 14.7 —
Aurélie Diep CAQ 3,268 14.3 —
Stéfan Marquis PCQ 1,138 5.0 —
Hailey Roop Other 450 2.0 —
Linda Sullivan Other 64 0.3 —
Jency Mercier Other 46 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026