Riding profile

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

QS

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
87%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 34.7%

    Roxane Milot

  • PQ 31.4%

    Philippe Schnobb

  • QLP 22.6%

    Justine McIntyre

  • PCQ 5.8%

    Antoine Corminboeuf

  • CAQ 3.0%

    Eli Zytoon

  • Other 2.4%

    Linda Sullivan Parti marxiste-léniniste du Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS PQ QLP PCQ
HereSainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques 34.7%31.4%22.6%5.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 9.6% +25.1 27.9% +3.5 23.4% −0.8 16.1% −10.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 35% vote share, against 31% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Manon Massé

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Eli Zytoon

    Eli Zytoon

    Having grown up in a country where politics was synonymous with oppression, Eli Zytoon arrived in Quebec as a refugee. This experience led him to discover the value of democratic institutions and the privilege of being able to participate freely in public life.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Linda Sullivan

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Antoine Corminboeuf

    Antoine Corminboeuf

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Philippe Schnobb

    Philippe Schnobb

    Journalist for nearly 27 years, Philippe Schnobb was also president of the STM Board of Directors for almost 8 years. Until very recently, he served as coordinator of the follow-up committee for the collective intervention strategy for the Village.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Justine McIntyre

    Justine McIntyre

    A Montreal resident originally from Ontario, political analyst and former elected official Justine McIntyre is entering provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. She began in municipal politics as city councillor for Bois-de-Liesse in Pierrefonds-Roxboro with Vrai Changement Montréal, and served as the party's interim leader from 2015 to 2021. Her environmental work included adopting a historic motion banning neonicotinoid pesticides, later incorporated into Montreal regulations. She holds a McGill bachelor's degree in music, a University of Washington certificate in arts and nonprofit management, and a 2022 master's in management and sustainable development from HEC Montréal. After municipal politics, this mother of three became a strategic-planning and sustainable-development consultant and co-founded Civica Stratégies. She regularly works as an analyst and political commentator for Radio-Canada, Noovo, CBC, CTV and CJAD. The PLQ candidate in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques has also worked in communications for Dans la rue and the Fonds du Souvenir, and sits on Garage à musique's board.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Roxane Milot

    Roxane Milot

    Roxane Milot is committed to solidarity and the defence of human rights. Having lived a path that highlighted the importance of a strong social safety net, she has worked for years for a fairer society, locally and internationally, including at the UN on justice and peace issues. She wants to succeed Manon Massé in representing Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques with heart and conviction. A neighbourhood resident and proud member of the 2SLGBTQIA+ community, she envisions an inclusive Quebec where no one is left behind.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
31.8 pts
Turnout
56.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Manon Massé Elected QS 10,892 47.7 —
Christopher Baenninger QLP 3,621 15.8 —
Phoeby Laplante PQ 3,362 14.7 —
Aurélie Diep CAQ 3,268 14.3 —
Stéfan Marquis PCQ 1,138 5.0 —
Hailey Roop Other 450 2.0 —
Linda Sullivan Other 64 0.3 —
Jency Mercier Other 46 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026