Riding profile

Gouin

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Gouin: a safe seat for Québec solidaire?

Current forecast

QS

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 46.3%

    Alexandre Boulerice

  • PQ 31.5%

    Isabelle Daoust

  • QLP 15.4%

    Hoang Annie Nguyen

  • PCQ 3.2%

    Edouard Prud’homme

  • Other 2.6%

    Charles Mc Nicoll Équipe autonomiste

  • CAQ 1.1%

    Frank Tremblay

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS PQ QLP PCQ
HereGouin 46.3%31.5%15.4%3.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 9.6% +36.7 27.9% +3.6 23.4% −8.0 16.1% −13.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Gouin, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 46% vote share, against 31% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Frank Tremblay

    Frank Tremblay

    Holder of a bachelor’s degree in applied sciences from Université Laval in Quebec City, Frank Tremblay is also a self-employed financial security advisor. Actively involved in politics since 2014 at various levels of government and with organizations helping those most in need, he is the father of two children. Frank’s social engagement has been broad for nearly twenty years. The need to help others, whatever their circumstances, is imperative to him. People are at the centre of all his actions.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Charles Mc Nicoll

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Edouard Prud’homme

    Edouard Prud’homme

    Originally from Gouin and having grown up in the construction industry, Edouard Prud'homme is well acquainted with the realities of workers, families, and entrepreneurs in his community. His background has given him a concrete understanding of everyday challenges and a desire to put his energy at the service of the citizens of his riding. Edouard wishes to represent the citizens of Gouin with proximity, pragmatism, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to property ownership, reduce bureaucracy, improve access to health care, and promote physical activity among young people.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Isabelle Daoust

    Isabelle Daoust

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Hoang Annie Nguyen

    Hoang Annie Nguyen

    At 33, Hoang Annie Nguyen is a trained kinesiologist with an MBA and a diverse public-sector career at different levels of government. These experiences helped her understand institutions, the importance of effective public services and citizens' daily realities. The PLQ candidate in Gouin is particularly interested in public health, housing access, the cost of living and neighbourhood vitality. Her management experience, volunteer commitments and time abroad have brought her into varied settings and helped her build support for concrete solutions. Deeply attached to Montreal and Quebec, she values protecting the environment, wildlife and flora, and believes economic development, innovation and territorial protection can progress together. From a Vietnamese family that settled in Quebec, she is profoundly grateful to a society that allowed her family to find its place and thrive; this history fuels her attachment to Quebec culture, history and the French language at the heart of collective identity.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Alexandre Boulerice

    Alexandre Boulerice

    A long-time activist and former federal MP, Alexandre Boulerice will represent Québec solidaire in Gouin.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
45.8 pts
Turnout
69.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois Elected QS 17,283 59.4
Vincent Delorme PQ 3,962 13.6
Catherine Pelletier CAQ 3,596 12.4
Rita Ikhouane QLP 2,444 8.4
Jayson Paquette Gendron PCQ 903 3.1
Valérie Vedrines Other 602 2.1
Chef Thémis Other 199 0.7
Jean-Benoit Garneau-Bédard Other 89 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026