Riding profile

Gouin

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Gouin: a safe seat for Québec solidaire?

Editorial read

Gouin, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 41% vote share, against 33% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

QS

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 41.5%
  • PQ 33.0%
  • PLQ 20.6%
  • Other 2.9%
  • PCQ 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS PQ PLQ Other
HereGouin 41.5%33.0%20.6%2.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 8.3% +33.2 30.1% +2.9 27.2% −6.5 2.0% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
45.8 pts
Turnout
69.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-37.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois Elected QS 17,283 59.4
Vincent Delorme PQ 3,962 13.6
Catherine Pelletier CAQ 3,596 12.4
Rita Ikhouane PLQ 2,444 8.4
Jayson Paquette Gendron PCQ 903 3.1
Valérie Vedrines Other 602 2.1
Chef Thémis Other 199 0.7
Jean-Benoit Garneau-Bédard Other 89 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026