Riding profile
Mercier
The question
Mercier: a safe seat for Québec solidaire?
Current forecast
QS
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QS | PQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMercier | 42.0% | 30.3% | 19.4% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 9.6% +32.4 | 27.9% +2.4 | 23.4% −4.0 | 16.1% −12.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mercier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ruba Ghazal
Sits with QS
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
QS Incumbent
Ruba Ghazal
Ruba Ghazal wants to become Quebec's premier to build a fairer, more inclusive, and sustainable country. A proud defender of the French language, democracy, and social justice, she carries a vision of a unifying Quebec where everyone can contribute fully to society. Drawing on extensive private-sector experience in health, safety, and the environment, she offers Québec solidaire a vision grounded in reality and connected to people's aspirations. She has embodied this project at the National Assembly for eight years and wants to lead it for all Quebec.
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger
Kelly-Anne Gagné
Holder of a Bachelor's degree in Political Science, including a certificate in Immigration and Intercultural Relations, Kelly-Anne Gagné currently works as a political assistant to the Member for Trois-Rivières, where she actively participates in file tracking and citizen representation. She lived in the Mercier riding for three years during her studies, which allowed her to gain a good understanding of the realities and issues of the sector.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Jenny Cartwright
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Michelle Paquette
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
François Plamondon
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Phoudsady Vanny
Her sustained engagement in cultural, community, and philanthropic circles demonstrates a constant will to build bridges. She founded the Ninan agency, representing several artists from different Indigenous nations.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Thierno Diallo
A recognized professional in economic development, governance and organizational development, Thierno Diallo combines strong academic expertise with extensive field experience. He holds a master's degree in public-program evaluation from École nationale d'administration publique, as well as several graduate diplomas in areas such as human resources, international relations, law, public management and territorial development. Currently economic-development commissioner for the City of Montreal, he previously taught law for more than five years at Université Toulouse 1 Capitole in France. He has also carried out consulting mandates in sustainable development, ethics and governance for international organizations, while supporting numerous Montreal community organizations with their organizational-development projects. Deeply involved in his community, Thierno Diallo is co-founder and president of the Fédération africaine et associations du Canada. Over the years, he has also held several governance roles in Quebec organizations, notably as vice-president of the Fédération de l'habitation coopérative du Québec. His constant commitment reflects a desire to bring citizens together, foster inclusion and put expertise at the service of the common good. Convinced that economic development, education and effective governance are essential levers for improving Quebecers' quality of life, he now wants to represent the citizens of Mercier in the National Assembly and help build a more prosperous, inclusive and forward-looking Quebec. × I commit to voting for Thierno Diallo as member for the riding of Mercier
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruba Ghazal Elected | QS | 14,755 | 53.9 | — |
| Sabrina Mercier-Ullhorn | PQ | 3,986 | 14.6 | — |
| Catherine Boundjia | QLP | 3,837 | 14.0 | — |
| Florence Lavictoire | CAQ | 2,814 | 10.3 | — |
| Emmanuel Da Costa | PCQ | 1,051 | 3.8 | — |
| Véronique Langlois | Other | 818 | 3.0 | — |
| Jenny Cartwright | Other | 102 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026