Riding profile
Mercier
The question
Mercier: will QS lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Mercier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 42% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ruba Ghazal
Sits with QS
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger 
Kelly-Anne Gagné
Holder of a Bachelor's degree in Political Science, including a certificate in Immigration and Intercultural Relations, Kelly-Anne Gagné currently works as a political assistant to the Member for Trois-Rivières, where she actively participates in file tracking and citizen representation. She lived in the Mercier riding for three years during her studies, which allowed her to gain a good understanding of the realities and issues of the sector.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Phoudsady Vanny
Her sustained engagement in cultural, community, and philanthropic circles demonstrates a constant will to build bridges. She founded the Ninan agency, representing several artists from different Indigenous nations.
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | PLQ | QS | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMercier | 42.2% | 26.0% | 25.2% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +12.2 | 27.2% −1.2 | 8.3% +16.9 | 2.0% +1.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruba Ghazal Elected | QS | 14,755 | 53.9 | — |
| Sabrina Mercier-Ullhorn | PQ | 3,986 | 14.6 | — |
| Catherine Boundjia | PLQ | 3,837 | 14.0 | — |
| Florence Lavictoire | CAQ | 2,814 | 10.3 | — |
| Emmanuel Da Costa | PCQ | 1,051 | 3.8 | — |
| Véronique Langlois | Other | 818 | 3.0 | — |
| Jenny Cartwright | Other | 102 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026