Riding profile

Mercier

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Mercier: a safe seat for Québec solidaire?

Current forecast

QS

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 42.0%

    Ruba Ghazal incumbent

  • PQ 30.3%

    Phoudsady Vanny

  • QLP 19.4%

    Thierno Diallo

  • PCQ 4.2%

    François Plamondon

  • Other 3.1%
  • CAQ 1.1%

    Kelly-Anne Gagné

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS PQ QLP PCQ
HereMercier 42.0%30.3%19.4%4.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 9.6% +32.4 27.9% +2.4 23.4% −4.0 16.1% −12.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mercier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ruba Ghazal

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Ruba Ghazal

    Ruba Ghazal

    Ruba Ghazal wants to become Quebec's premier to build a fairer, more inclusive, and sustainable country. A proud defender of the French language, democracy, and social justice, she carries a vision of a unifying Quebec where everyone can contribute fully to society. Drawing on extensive private-sector experience in health, safety, and the environment, she offers Québec solidaire a vision grounded in reality and connected to people's aspirations. She has embodied this project at the National Assembly for eight years and wants to lead it for all Quebec.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Kelly-Anne Gagné

    Kelly-Anne Gagné

    Holder of a Bachelor's degree in Political Science, including a certificate in Immigration and Intercultural Relations, Kelly-Anne Gagné currently works as a political assistant to the Member for Trois-Rivières, where she actively participates in file tracking and citizen representation. She lived in the Mercier riding for three years during her studies, which allowed her to gain a good understanding of the realities and issues of the sector.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jenny Cartwright

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Michelle Paquette

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    François Plamondon

    François Plamondon

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Phoudsady Vanny

    Phoudsady Vanny

    Her sustained engagement in cultural, community, and philanthropic circles demonstrates a constant will to build bridges. She founded the Ninan agency, representing several artists from different Indigenous nations.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Thierno Diallo

    Thierno Diallo

    A recognized professional in economic development, governance and organizational development, Thierno Diallo combines strong academic expertise with extensive field experience. He holds a master's degree in public-program evaluation from École nationale d'administration publique, as well as several graduate diplomas in areas such as human resources, international relations, law, public management and territorial development. Currently economic-development commissioner for the City of Montreal, he previously taught law for more than five years at Université Toulouse 1 Capitole in France. He has also carried out consulting mandates in sustainable development, ethics and governance for international organizations, while supporting numerous Montreal community organizations with their organizational-development projects. Deeply involved in his community, Thierno Diallo is co-founder and president of the Fédération africaine et associations du Canada. Over the years, he has also held several governance roles in Quebec organizations, notably as vice-president of the Fédération de l'habitation coopérative du Québec. His constant commitment reflects a desire to bring citizens together, foster inclusion and put expertise at the service of the common good. Convinced that economic development, education and effective governance are essential levers for improving Quebecers' quality of life, he now wants to represent the citizens of Mercier in the National Assembly and help build a more prosperous, inclusive and forward-looking Quebec. × I commit to voting for Thierno Diallo as member for the riding of Mercier

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
39.4 pts
Turnout
63.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ruba Ghazal Elected QS 14,755 53.9
Sabrina Mercier-Ullhorn PQ 3,986 14.6
Catherine Boundjia QLP 3,837 14.0
Florence Lavictoire CAQ 2,814 10.3
Emmanuel Da Costa PCQ 1,051 3.8
Véronique Langlois Other 818 3.0
Jenny Cartwright Other 102 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026