Riding profile

Laurier-Dorion

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Laurier-Dorion: a safe seat for Québec solidaire?

Current forecast

QS

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 36.6%

    Andrés Fontecilla incumbent

  • QLP 24.3%

    Randy Legault-Rankin

  • PQ 23.4%

    Kelly Lazo De La Vega

  • PCQ 6.7%

    Marc-Antoine Cusson

  • CAQ 4.7%

    Emil Parfyonov

  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS QLP PQ PCQ
HereLaurier-Dorion 36.6%24.3%23.4%6.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 9.6% +27.0 23.4% +0.9 27.9% −4.5 16.1% −9.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laurier-Dorion, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrés Fontecilla

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Andrés Fontecilla

    Andrés Fontecilla

    Andrés Fontecilla gives voice to the people of Laurier-Dorion in defending social justice, the right to housing and the rights of immigrants. At the National Assembly, he advances concrete solutions for a more caring society, an ambitious ecological transition and an inclusive Québec where everyone can live with dignity. An essential riding representative on the ground in Villeray and Parc-Extension, always ready to listen and help community organizations, Andrés wants to continue in October a lifelong commitment to social justice.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Emil Parfyonov

    Emil Parfyonov

    Emil Parfyonov is an 18-year-old from Almaty in Kazakhstan. In 2015, he immigrated to Quebec with his parents and his three sisters, where he quickly fell under the spell of the language, culture and society of Quebec.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Mathieu Marcil

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Stéphane Doucet

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marc-Antoine Cusson

    Marc-Antoine Cusson

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Kelly Lazo De La Vega

    Kelly Lazo De La Vega

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Randy Legault-Rankin

    Randy Legault-Rankin

    Commissioner for relations with Indigenous peoples for the City of Montreal, Randy Legault-Rankin is entering provincial politics to join the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard's leadership. A member of the Abitibiwinni First Nation, the PLQ candidate in Laurier-Dorion has devoted his career to bringing communities closer together, developing public policy and serving the public. In his role with the City of Montreal, he led reconciliation efforts between the city and Indigenous communities. He helped advance public policies, administrative practices and municipal decision-making so that services, programs and institutions would be more inclusive and better adapted to the realities of historically underrepresented people and communities. Previously, he held strategic communications, public-affairs and government-relations positions at Indigenous Services Canada, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, and Saputo, Vidéotron and Wapikoni Mobile. This path, at the intersection of government, business and the community sector, gave him a nuanced understanding of all three worlds. Deeply involved in Montreal's community, Randy Legault-Rankin sits on Centraide of Greater Montreal's Social Development Investment Committee and the board of the Tiohtià:ke/Montreal First Peoples Justice Center. He also chaired Mikana's board and served on the board of Psychoéducation Sans Frontières. × I commit to voting for Randy Legault-Rankin as member for the riding of Laurier-Dorion

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
29.2 pts
Turnout
61.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrés Fontecilla Elected QS 13,323 48.8
Deepak Awasti QLP 5,344 19.6
Vicki Marcoux CAQ 3,203 11.7
Maxime Larochelle PQ 2,800 10.3
Guy Diotte PCQ 1,512 5.5
Amir Khan Other 480 1.8
Ismaila Marega Other 332 1.2
Amélie Villeneuve Other 157 0.6
Mathieu Marcil Other 77 0.3
Anthony Van Duyse Other 75 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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