Riding profile
Mont-Royal–Outremont
The question
Mont-Royal–Outremont: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PQ | QS | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMont-Royal–Outremont | 46.2% | 19.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +22.8 | 27.9% −8.4 | 9.6% +2.7 | 16.1% −5.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mont-Royal–Outremont, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 20% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michelle Setlakwe
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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QLP Incumbent
Michelle Setlakwe
Married, mother of three young adults and a member of the Quebec Bar since 1996, Michelle Setlakwe worked as a business lawyer at Norton Rose Fulbright for 10 years, before becoming a corporate lawyer at Transat A.T. inc. The Liberal MP served as Town Councillor for Town of Mount Royal from 2016 to 2021. During her five years of involvement in municipal politics, Michelle Setlakwe has made a difference by getting involved in a wide variety of issues in collaboration with community players that directly affect her fellow citizens. She also chaired the YES committee during a referendum for a sports and community center project for Town of Mount Royal. She then made the leap into provincial politics in 2022, when she was elected MNA for her riding for her first term. Over the past four years, Michelle Setlakwe has held the positions of Deputy House Leader, House Leader and Caucus Chair. In particular, she was spokesperson for culture and communications, municipal affairs, higher education, cybersecurity and digital issues, and was responsible for the Chaudière-Appalaches region. Ms. Setlakwe's commitment extends beyond politics. She has volunteered with the Fondation du CHU Sainte-Justine, MultiCaf, Collège Jean-de-Brébeuf and Duceppe. She was also a member of the Board of Directors and President of the Fondation Saint-Clément from 2010 to 2017. In this capacity, she was twice awarded the Prix France-Racicot for her commitment to the foundation and her years of volunteer work in Saint-Clément schools. Of Armenian and French-Canadian descent, Michelle moved from her hometown of Thetford Mines to the riding of Mont-Royal-Outremont over 30 years ago to study law at the Université de Montréal. The Liberal MP grew up in a bilingual family environment. For Michelle Setlakwe, the richness of our society lies in its diversity, and Mont-Royal-Outremont is a good example of this inclusive plurality and this living-together of which we can be proud. It is with great enthusiasm that she seeks a second term to continue representing the citizens of Mont-Royal-Outremont. Over the past few years, she has been deeply rooted in the field, listening to residents' concerns and committed to her community.
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CAQ Challenger
Sarah Beaumier
Sarah Beaumier has been president of the National Executive Council of the Coalition Avenir Québec since 2020, a marketing professional and mother of three children. A member of the party since its founding in 2011, she ran as a candidate in 2018 in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, while pregnant with her third child, before running in Mont-Royal–Outremont in 2022. She knows this constituency intimately, having completed her master's degree at HEC Montréal before living there for ten years, and where her three children were born at CHU Sainte-Justine, an institution for which she has also volunteered by supporting the fundraising campaigns of its foundation. Holder of a Master of Science (M.Sc.) from HEC Montréal and a bachelor's degree in commerce from Concordia University, she has nearly 20 years of experience in management and brand strategy, notably heading Canadian marketing for Polestar and, today, serving as director of marketing at Datmos. As president of the National Executive Council, she has a unique overview of the party's democratic life and the reality on the ground experienced by activists throughout Quebec. This dual experience—that of a manager accustomed to delivering concrete results and that of a seasoned political organizer—informs her understanding of the issues in Mont-Royal–Outremont: access to affordable housing, the vitality of commercial arteries such as Bernard and Van Horne, traffic and mobility in a sector undergoing major transformation, as well as the quality of life for families and seniors. A pragmatic and committed candidate, Sarah Beaumier wants to carry the voice of the citizens of Mont-Royal–Outremont to the National Assembly and work, with rigour and determination, to concretely improve their daily lives.
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PCQ Challenger
Yaron Avsker
Yaron Avsker grew up in a family where mutual support, hard work, and a sense of responsibility held an important place. His professional background has allowed him to develop solid expertise in resource management, as well as an approach based on rigour, transparency, and the responsible use of public funds. Deeply attached to his community, he wishes to offer representation focused on results and more effective management of the State. Yaron wants to help reduce waste, improve the delivery of infrastructure, and make the healthcare system more efficient. He also wants to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to home ownership for young people, and reduce the bureaucracy that holds back entrepreneurs. In this way, he wishes to help build a more prosperous Quebec, where every public dollar is used responsibly.
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PQ Challenger
Ariane Bureau
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QS Challenger
Marianne Locas-Ouimet
Marianne Locas-Ouimet, an engaged candidate in Mont-Royal–Outremont, believes politics should restore hope and trust to citizens. A law student at Université de Montréal, she already applies her knowledge to defending human rights, especially for asylum seekers and tenants. Active since adolescence in civic and community projects, she advocates a fairer society where education, housing, health, and equality are accessible to everyone. She brings a young, determined voice deeply rooted in her community.
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Setlakwe Elected | QLP | 11,658 | 39.4 | — |
| Isabelle Leblanc | QS | 6,008 | 20.3 | — |
| Sarah Beaumier | CAQ | 4,677 | 15.8 | — |
| Ophélie Bastien | PQ | 3,385 | 11.4 | — |
| Sabrina Ait Akil | PCQ | 2,522 | 8.5 | — |
| Malik Guelmi | Other | 785 | 2.6 | — |
| Anne Goldberg Harrison | Other | 507 | 1.7 | — |
| David A Cherniak | Other | 87 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026