Riding profile
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
The question
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | Other | PCQ | PQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNotre-Dame-de-Grâce | 51.3% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +27.9 | 1.7% +12.2 | 16.1% −5.3 | 27.9% −19.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 51% vote share, against 14% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Désirée McGraw
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
QLP Incumbent
Désirée McGraw
Currently the Official Opposition critic for international relations, trade and the fight against climate change, she is also Vice-Chair of the National Assembly Delegation for relations with the United States. A trained economist and experienced CEO, Ms. McGraw completed her post-secondary education at CEGEP Brébeuf and Concordia University's School of Community and Public Affairs, before going on to pursue graduate studies at the London School of Economics. She has also completed executive development programs at McGill, Harvard and Yale. Over the course of her career, she has worked as a UN reporter, senior policy advisor on international cooperation to the Prime Minister of Canada, co-founder of Climate Reality Canada with former US Vice President Al Gore, President and CEO of the Jeanne Sauvé Foundation, and the first woman to be appointed head of Pearson International College in British Columbia. With a career devoted to public service, education and philanthropy, she has chosen to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce and Montreal West at the National Assembly in 2022. Strongly committed to her community, Ms. McGraw initiated the Quebec Perinatal Bereavement Awareness Day and authored Quebec's first bill enshrining the right to a healthy environment. Ms. McGraw's commitment to NDG is deeply personal. Born and raised in the community, she now lives there with her husband and their three sons.
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CAQ Challenger
Kaan Altintas
A professional in the financial and insurance sectors, Kaan Altintas holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of Montreal, as well as a Master's degree in Public and Private Sector Management from HEC Montreal. Arriving alone in Quebec at age 16 through a student exchange program in Joliette, he chose to build his life there after developing a deep attachment to Quebec, its culture, and its values of openness, respect, and citizen participation.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Alex Tyrrell
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Guillaume St-Pierre
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Vincent Hubert
A graduate with a bachelor's degree in Computer Engineering from Polytechnique Montréal, Vincent Hubert is currently a software development manager and developer at SITA. In his role, he manages several IT professionals based in three countries who ensure smooth air-to-ground communications for more than 100 airlines. Throughout his career, he has also participated in the development of several emerging companies and collaborated in implementing a computer program for Institut Grasset. He has also been involved in various aspects of the Notre-Dame-de-Grâce community, notably as a coach for the NDG Jaguars, president of the school boards for Saint-Luc Secondary School and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce School, and as a member of the board of directors of CPE Petites Chenilles. "I want to put my expertise to the service of the next Parti Québécois government to make the state more efficient and improve services offered to citizens. I am convinced that the Parti Québécois is the political force that Quebec currently needs to meet today's challenges."
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Élise Davignon
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Désirée McGraw Elected | QLP | 12,918 | 50.5 | — |
| Élisabeth Labelle | QS | 3,967 | 15.5 | — |
| Roy Eappen | PCQ | 2,087 | 8.2 | — |
| Geneviève Lemay | CAQ | 1,877 | 7.3 | — |
| Balarama Holness | Other | 1,701 | 6.6 | — |
| Cloé Rose Jenneau | PQ | 1,302 | 5.1 | — |
| Alex Tyrrell | Other | 956 | 3.7 | — |
| Constantine Eliadis | Other | 723 | 2.8 | — |
| Rachel Hoffman | Other | 71 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026