Riding profile

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 51.3%

    Désirée McGraw incumbent

  • Other 13.8%

    Alex Tyrrell Green Party of Québec

  • PCQ 10.8%

    Guillaume St-Pierre

  • PQ 8.8%

    Vincent Hubert

  • CAQ 8.1%

    Kaan Altintas

  • QS 7.1%

    Élise Davignon

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP Other PCQ PQ
HereNotre-Dame-de-Grâce 51.3%13.8%10.8%8.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +27.9 1.7% +12.2 16.1% −5.3 27.9% −19.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 51% vote share, against 14% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Désirée McGraw

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Désirée McGraw

    Désirée McGraw

    Currently the Official Opposition critic for international relations, trade and the fight against climate change, she is also Vice-Chair of the National Assembly Delegation for relations with the United States. A trained economist and experienced CEO, Ms. McGraw completed her post-secondary education at CEGEP Brébeuf and Concordia University's School of Community and Public Affairs, before going on to pursue graduate studies at the London School of Economics. She has also completed executive development programs at McGill, Harvard and Yale. Over the course of her career, she has worked as a UN reporter, senior policy advisor on international cooperation to the Prime Minister of Canada, co-founder of Climate Reality Canada with former US Vice President Al Gore, President and CEO of the Jeanne Sauvé Foundation, and the first woman to be appointed head of Pearson International College in British Columbia. With a career devoted to public service, education and philanthropy, she has chosen to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce and Montreal West at the National Assembly in 2022. Strongly committed to her community, Ms. McGraw initiated the Quebec Perinatal Bereavement Awareness Day and authored Quebec's first bill enshrining the right to a healthy environment. Ms. McGraw's commitment to NDG is deeply personal. Born and raised in the community, she now lives there with her husband and their three sons.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Kaan Altintas

    Kaan Altintas

    A professional in the financial and insurance sectors, Kaan Altintas holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of Montreal, as well as a Master's degree in Public and Private Sector Management from HEC Montreal. Arriving alone in Quebec at age 16 through a student exchange program in Joliette, he chose to build his life there after developing a deep attachment to Quebec, its culture, and its values of openness, respect, and citizen participation.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Alex Tyrrell

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Guillaume St-Pierre

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Vincent Hubert

    Vincent Hubert

    A graduate with a bachelor's degree in Computer Engineering from Polytechnique Montréal, Vincent Hubert is currently a software development manager and developer at SITA. In his role, he manages several IT professionals based in three countries who ensure smooth air-to-ground communications for more than 100 airlines. Throughout his career, he has also participated in the development of several emerging companies and collaborated in implementing a computer program for Institut Grasset. He has also been involved in various aspects of the Notre-Dame-de-Grâce community, notably as a coach for the NDG Jaguars, president of the school boards for Saint-Luc Secondary School and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce School, and as a member of the board of directors of CPE Petites Chenilles. "I want to put my expertise to the service of the next Parti Québécois government to make the state more efficient and improve services offered to citizens. I am convinced that the Parti Québécois is the political force that Quebec currently needs to meet today's challenges."

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Élise Davignon

    Élise Davignon

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
35.0 pts
Turnout
55.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Désirée McGraw Elected QLP 12,918 50.5
Élisabeth Labelle QS 3,967 15.5
Roy Eappen PCQ 2,087 8.2
Geneviève Lemay CAQ 1,877 7.3
Balarama Holness Other 1,701 6.6
Cloé Rose Jenneau PQ 1,302 5.1
Alex Tyrrell Other 956 3.7
Constantine Eliadis Other 723 2.8
Rachel Hoffman Other 71 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026