Riding profile

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Editorial read

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 59% vote share, against 16% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Désirée McGraw

Sits with PLQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Incumbent
    Désirée McGraw

    Désirée McGraw

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Kaan Altintas

    Kaan Altintas

    A professional in the financial and insurance sectors, Kaan Altintas holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of Montreal, as well as a Master's degree in Public and Private Sector Management from HEC Montreal. Arriving alone in Quebec at age 16 through a student exchange program in Joliette, he chose to build his life there after developing a deep attachment to Quebec, its culture, and its values of openness, respect, and citizen participation.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 58.8%
  • Other 16.0%
  • PCQ 8.6%
  • QS 6.7%
  • CAQ 5.1%
  • PQ 4.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ Other PCQ QS
HereNotre-Dame-de-Grâce 58.8%16.0%8.6%6.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +31.6 2.0% +14.1 13.2% −4.6 8.3% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PLQ
Margin
35.0 pts
Turnout
55.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Désirée McGraw Elected PLQ 12,918 50.5 —
Élisabeth Labelle QS 3,967 15.5 —
Roy Eappen PCQ 2,087 8.2 —
Geneviève Lemay CAQ 1,877 7.3 —
Balarama Holness Other 1,701 6.6 —
Cloé Rose Jenneau PQ 1,302 5.1 —
Alex Tyrrell Other 956 3.7 —
Constantine Eliadis Other 723 2.8 —
Rachel Hoffman Other 71 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026