Riding profile

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne: will QS lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 43.9%

    Benoit Clermont

  • QS 18.4%

    Guillaume Cliche-Rivard incumbent

  • PQ 18.2%

    Caroline-Julie Fortin

  • PCQ 8.3%

    Edouard Stephan Valdescault

  • CAQ 7.4%

    Anthony Lavoie

  • Other 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP QS PQ PCQ
HereSaint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 43.9%18.4%18.2%8.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +20.5 9.6% +8.8 27.9% −9.7 16.1% −7.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 44% vote share, against 18% for Québec solidaire, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Guillaume Cliche-Rivard

Sits with QS

Since
2023-03-13
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Guillaume Cliche-Rivard

    Guillaume Cliche-Rivard

    Guillaume Cliche-Rivard has been the MNA for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne since 2023 and an engaged voice for a progressive Quebec. A lawyer specializing in immigration and refugee law, he has devoted his career to defending people in highly vulnerable situations, notably in major human-rights cases. A lecturer at UQAM and former legal adviser to Amnesty International, he has extensive experience in social justice and inclusion. Today Québec solidaire’s parliamentary leader and responsible for several important files, he continues his work in the National Assembly to strengthen rights, public services and protection for the most vulnerable people.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Anthony Lavoie

    Anthony Lavoie

    Anthony is from the Terrebonne riding. He worked at the Coalition Avenir Québec campaign office, is also an entrepreneur, and is pursuing a bachelor's degree in creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship at the University of Montreal.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-Pierre Duford

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Laura Champagne

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Edouard Stephan Valdescault

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Caroline-Julie Fortin

    Caroline-Julie Fortin

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Benoit Clermont

    Benoit Clermont

    Benoit Clermont is a well-known executive and producer in Quebec’s media industry. As founder and president of Productions Déferlantes from 2015 to 2026, he contributed to the success of several flagship Quebec television shows, including Star Académie, La Voix, and Chanteurs masqués. His career combines legal expertise, entrepreneurial leadership, and in-depth knowledge of the cultural sector. Before founding Productions Déferlantes, he served as vice president of legal and commercial affairs at Productions J for nearly ten years, helping to develop numerous major media projects. Prior to that, he spent a decade practicing as an attorney specializing in intellectual property and media law at the law firm Ogilvy Renault (now Norton Rose Fulbright), where he developed extensive expertise in the legal and commercial issues facing the cultural industry. A resident of the Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne riding for more than 15 years, Benoit Clermont is well acquainted with the realities of his community. He has also been actively involved in the governance of Quebec’s cultural sector, serving on the boards of directors of several organizations, including the Association québécoise de la production médiatique, the École nationale de l’humour, and the Fondation de Bibliothèque et Archives nationales du Québec. He has also served as vice president of ADISQ and as a director of SOPROQ. A law graduate of the University of Montreal and a member of the Quebec Bar, he also holds an MBA from HEC Montreal and a diploma in advanced studies in communications law from the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
8.4 pts
Turnout
57.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dominique Anglade Elected QLP 11,728 36.1
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard QS 8,992 27.7
Nicolas Huard-Isabelle CAQ 5,751 17.7
Julie Daubois PQ 2,683 8.3
Mischa White PCQ 2,063 6.4
Jean-Pierre Duford Other 620 1.9
Janusz Kaczorowski Other 530 1.6
Esther Gaudreault Other 73 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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