Riding profile
Verdun
The question
Verdun: will QS lose this seat to QLP?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | QS | PQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVerdun | 39.3% | 20.7% | 20.5% | 8.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +15.9 | 9.6% +11.0 | 27.9% −7.4 | 21.3% −12.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Verdun, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 39% vote share, against 21% for Québec solidaire, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alejandra Zaga Mendez
Sits with QS
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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QS Incumbent
Alejandra Zaga Mendez
Alejandra Zaga Mendez grew up in a working-class environment that shaped her commitment to social justice. A doctor in sustainable development and an environmental-issues specialist, she works at the intersection of ecology, economics and reducing inequalities. Since her election as the Member of the National Assembly for Verdun in 2022, she has been omnipresent in the community and puts her listening skills and expertise at the service of citizens. At the National Assembly, she handles several files essential to Québec solidaire, making her an indispensable member for building a fairer society where quality of life and environmental protection go hand in hand.
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CAQ Challenger
Roseline Olory
Roseline Olory is an entrepreneur, researcher and expert in artificial intelligence and innovation in healthcare. Holding a doctoral degree in software engineering and information technology as well as an MBA, she has always put science, technology and innovation at the service of people and the common good. Founder of a Quebec-based company specialized in artificial intelligence applied to healthcare, she transforms research into concrete solutions to improve care, support our health network and strengthen Quebec's competitiveness. Her career has led her to direct large-scale innovation projects, develop cutting-edge technologies and build partnerships between scientific, entrepreneurial and industrial communities. Deeply engaged in her community, Roseline has invested several years in supporting the next generation by promoting women's access to science, technology and entrepreneurship. Through mentoring and education, she supports young people so they can reach their full potential. Today, she wishes to put this expertise at the service of the citizens of Verdun. She wants to contribute to improving access to healthcare and more efficient public services. Improve mobility and defend a quality of life that allows citizens to continue to live and thrive in Verdun. Convinced that the best decisions are based on listening, rigor and results, Roseline wants to be a strong voice for a constituency that is more prosperous, more inclusive and forward-looking.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Manuel Johnson
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Marc-André Ouellette
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Marina Cabrera
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Matthieu Deutté Brien
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Max Richard
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Normand Chouinard
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad
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PCQ Challenger
Lucien Koty
Lucien Koty is a senior information technology consultant and has accumulated more than twenty years of experience in the field. Specialized in designing and governing large-scale information solutions, he has led numerous architecture projects in complex and regulated environments, both in the public and private sectors.
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PQ Challenger
Elena Kozynchenko
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QLP Challenger
Antoine Dionne Charest
A liberal activist for more than fifteen years, Antoine Dionne Charest first became involved with the Quebec Liberal Party’s Youth Commission before continuing his involvement in several party bodies, notably the National Policy Commission. He has also contributed to discussions on the future of the party by co-authoring several reports, including one on the revitalization of the Quebec Liberal Party in 2024. As a public affairs and strategic communications consultant, he has extensive experience with government and institutional issues. In particular, he served as an advisor to the president of the public relations firm NATIONAL, founded his own consulting firm, and held various positions within ministerial offices, notably with the ministers of Labor, Employment, and Social Solidarity, as well as with the president of the Treasury Board. These experiences have enabled him to develop a deep understanding of how the government operates and of the major economic and social challenges facing Quebec. Antoine Dionne Charest holds a Ph.D. in political philosophy from the University of Montreal, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a bachelor’s degree in political science from Concordia University; he has also taught ethics and public policy. A well-known current affairs commentator, he has contributed to public debate in several Quebec media outlets. Drawing on his commitment to the Quebec Liberal Party, his experience in public policy, and his deep connection to Verdun, Antoine Dionne Charest now hopes to put his expertise to work for the citizens of the Verdun riding and help build a more prosperous, fairer, and more ambitious Quebec.
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandra Zaga Mendez Elected | QS | 9,562 | 30.8 | — |
| Isabelle Melançon | QLP | 9,101 | 29.3 | — |
| Véronique Tremblay | CAQ | 7,150 | 23.0 | — |
| Claudia Valdivia | PQ | 2,591 | 8.3 | — |
| Lucien Koty | PCQ | 1,664 | 5.3 | — |
| Jannie Pellerin | Other | 542 | 1.7 | — |
| Scott Kilbride | Other | 301 | 1.0 | — |
| Marc-André Milette | Other | 65 | 0.2 | — |
| Alexandre Desmarais | Other | 61 | 0.2 | — |
| Fernand Deschamps | Other | 30 | 0.1 | — |
| Alain Rioux | Other | 26 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026