Riding profile

Verdun

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Verdun: will QS lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 39.3%

    Antoine Dionne Charest

  • QS 20.7%

    Alejandra Zaga Mendez incumbent

  • PQ 20.5%

    Elena Kozynchenko

  • CAQ 8.7%

    Roseline Olory

  • PCQ 7.4%

    Lucien Koty

  • Other 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP QS PQ CAQ
HereVerdun 39.3%20.7%20.5%8.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +15.9 9.6% +11.0 27.9% −7.4 21.3% −12.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Verdun, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 39% vote share, against 21% for Québec solidaire, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alejandra Zaga Mendez

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Alejandra Zaga Mendez

    Alejandra Zaga Mendez

    Alejandra Zaga Mendez grew up in a working-class environment that shaped her commitment to social justice. A doctor in sustainable development and an environmental-issues specialist, she works at the intersection of ecology, economics and reducing inequalities. Since her election as the Member of the National Assembly for Verdun in 2022, she has been omnipresent in the community and puts her listening skills and expertise at the service of citizens. At the National Assembly, she handles several files essential to Québec solidaire, making her an indispensable member for building a fairer society where quality of life and environmental protection go hand in hand.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Roseline Olory

    Roseline Olory

    Roseline Olory is an entrepreneur, researcher and expert in artificial intelligence and innovation in healthcare. Holding a doctoral degree in software engineering and information technology as well as an MBA, she has always put science, technology and innovation at the service of people and the common good. Founder of a Quebec-based company specialized in artificial intelligence applied to healthcare, she transforms research into concrete solutions to improve care, support our health network and strengthen Quebec's competitiveness. Her career has led her to direct large-scale innovation projects, develop cutting-edge technologies and build partnerships between scientific, entrepreneurial and industrial communities. Deeply engaged in her community, Roseline has invested several years in supporting the next generation by promoting women's access to science, technology and entrepreneurship. Through mentoring and education, she supports young people so they can reach their full potential. Today, she wishes to put this expertise at the service of the citizens of Verdun. She wants to contribute to improving access to healthcare and more efficient public services. Improve mobility and defend a quality of life that allows citizens to continue to live and thrive in Verdun. Convinced that the best decisions are based on listening, rigor and results, Roseline wants to be a strong voice for a constituency that is more prosperous, more inclusive and forward-looking.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Manuel Johnson

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Marc-André Ouellette

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Marina Cabrera

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Matthieu Deutté Brien

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Max Richard

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Normand Chouinard

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Lucien Koty

    Lucien Koty

    Lucien Koty is a senior information technology consultant and has accumulated more than twenty years of experience in the field. Specialized in designing and governing large-scale information solutions, he has led numerous architecture projects in complex and regulated environments, both in the public and private sectors.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Elena Kozynchenko

    Elena Kozynchenko

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Antoine Dionne Charest

    Antoine Dionne Charest

    A liberal activist for more than fifteen years, Antoine Dionne Charest first became involved with the Quebec Liberal Party’s Youth Commission before continuing his involvement in several party bodies, notably the National Policy Commission. He has also contributed to discussions on the future of the party by co-authoring several reports, including one on the revitalization of the Quebec Liberal Party in 2024. As a public affairs and strategic communications consultant, he has extensive experience with government and institutional issues. In particular, he served as an advisor to the president of the public relations firm NATIONAL, founded his own consulting firm, and held various positions within ministerial offices, notably with the ministers of Labor, Employment, and Social Solidarity, as well as with the president of the Treasury Board. These experiences have enabled him to develop a deep understanding of how the government operates and of the major economic and social challenges facing Quebec. Antoine Dionne Charest holds a Ph.D. in political philosophy from the University of Montreal, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a bachelor’s degree in political science from Concordia University; he has also taught ethics and public policy. A well-known current affairs commentator, he has contributed to public debate in several Quebec media outlets. Drawing on his commitment to the Quebec Liberal Party, his experience in public policy, and his deep connection to Verdun, Antoine Dionne Charest now hopes to put his expertise to work for the citizens of the Verdun riding and help build a more prosperous, fairer, and more ambitious Quebec.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
1.5 pts
Turnout
64.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alejandra Zaga Mendez Elected QS 9,562 30.8
Isabelle Melançon QLP 9,101 29.3
Véronique Tremblay CAQ 7,150 23.0
Claudia Valdivia PQ 2,591 8.3
Lucien Koty PCQ 1,664 5.3
Jannie Pellerin Other 542 1.7
Scott Kilbride Other 301 1.0
Marc-André Milette Other 65 0.2
Alexandre Desmarais Other 61 0.2
Fernand Deschamps Other 30 0.1
Alain Rioux Other 26 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026