Riding profile
La Prairie
The question
La Prairie: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
La Prairie, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Christian Dubé
Sits with Independent
Current forecast
PLQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 70%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 47%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLa Prairie | 32.3% | 26.2% | 25.5% | 8.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +5.2 | 30.1% −3.9 | 20.3% +5.3 | 13.2% −5.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dubé Elected | CAQ | 18,229 | 52.7 | — |
| Julie Guertin | PLQ | 4,791 | 13.8 | — |
| Pierre-Marc Allaire-Daly | QS | 4,531 | 13.1 | — |
| Sarah Joly-Simard | PQ | 3,950 | 11.4 | — |
| Marie Pelletier | PCQ | 2,751 | 8.0 | — |
| Barbara Joannette | Other | 281 | 0.8 | — |
| Normand Chouinard | Other | 50 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026