Riding profile
La Prairie
The question
La Prairie: will Independent lose this seat to CAQ?
Current forecast
CAQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 88%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 35%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLa Prairie | 32.9% | 23.4% | 23.2% | 12.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +11.6 | 27.9% −4.4 | 23.4% −0.2 | 16.1% −3.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
La Prairie, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 23% for the PQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Christian Dubé
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- CAQ Challenger
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise has 40 years of professional experience, giving him a deep understanding of Quebecers' realities. His career is particularly diverse: he moved from negotiation to entrepreneurship, after serving as senior vice-president at a major public-affairs firm. These roles enabled him to bring partners together, find solutions and move files forward. A public-affairs and public-participation specialist, Pierre has recognized expertise in relations among institutions, citizens, municipalities and partners involved in public decisions. He has led many consultations on transportation, the environment, education and land-use planning, and advised cities on strategic issues and development. He knows La Prairie well, having advised elected officials in Candiac, La Prairie and the Roussillon RCM on major projects. He has worked on family services, new neighbourhoods, green-space protection and infrastructure development, always pragmatically and effectively. More recently he was chief of staff to the minister of municipal affairs and then to the minister of health. He now wants to put his broad experience at La Prairie citizens' service, addressing issues with knowledge of the community, institutions and the mechanisms needed to achieve results.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Hélène Héroux
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger 
Marie Pelletier
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Frédéric Côté
Frédéric Côté is the former general manager of Complexe Le Partage, a community organization providing food-assistance services on Montreal's South Shore. He has deep knowledge of the community sector and of issues affecting La Prairie, including public and road transportation, access to local care, and small-business administration. A committed sovereigntist, he believes Quebec must take its place among nations and that our economic interests are best represented by ourselves. Quebecers deserve to negotiate their own agreements, prioritize key sectors, and ensure their expertise reaches the world. He hopes Quebec will one day vote YES so that it can finally represent itself.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger 
Sonia Ziadé
Originally from Montreal’s South Shore, Sonia Ziadé has over 20 years’ experience in management, economic development, international relations and public service. Educated at Laval and McGill, she worked in Washington, D.C., on programs for students interested in international trade and free-trade agreements. The PLQ candidate for La Prairie wants to serve citizens through pragmatic economic development and quality of life. × I commit to voting for Sonia Ziadé as member for La Prairie
source ↗ -
QS Challenger 
Francine van Winden
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dubé Elected | CAQ | 18,229 | 52.7 | — |
| Julie Guertin | QLP | 4,791 | 13.8 | — |
| Pierre-Marc Allaire-Daly | QS | 4,531 | 13.1 | — |
| Sarah Joly-Simard | PQ | 3,950 | 11.4 | — |
| Marie Pelletier | PCQ | 2,751 | 8.0 | — |
| Barbara Joannette | Other | 281 | 0.8 | — |
| Normand Chouinard | Other | 50 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026