Riding profile

Sanguinet

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Sanguinet: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.9%

    Alain Therrien

  • CAQ 28.7%

    Jean Lacroix

  • QLP 17.4%

    Pinou Thong

  • PCQ 14.8%

    Serge Benoit

  • QS 7.3%

    Virginie Bernier

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereSanguinet 30.9%28.7%17.4%14.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +3.0 21.3% +7.5 23.4% −6.0 16.1% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sanguinet, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Christine Fréchette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Jean Lacroix

    Jean Lacroix

    A pioneer in the energy and environment sectors, Jean Lacroix has worked for over 20 years in various organizations dedicated to these fields. He has served as a board member, president, and founder, contributing to the creation of networks of expertise and technologies that foster innovation and value creation. He holds a bachelor's degree in natural resources, a master's degree in applied sciences (hydrology), and a graduate diploma in environmental management, giving him in-depth training in the environment and natural resource management. At the head of Réseau Environnement and the Association québécoise pour la maîtrise de l'énergie (AQME) for several years, he also founded Coop Carbone, an organization dedicated to the energy transition and the reduction of carbon emissions, as well as Québec'Eau and Traces Québec, two initiatives also focused on environmental issues. Currently President and CEO of Cintech Agroalimentaire, he has played, since 2020, a strategic role in the company's development and in establishing structures that enable Quebec's agri-food industry to access more efficiently the technologies and expertise it needs to grow.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Serge Benoit

    Serge Benoit

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Alain Therrien

    Alain Therrien

    Alain is an experienced politician who previously wore our party's colours in Sanguinet from 2012 to 2018. He subsequently served as Member of Parliament and Parliamentary Leader of the Bloc Québécois from 2019 to 2025 in the same region.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Pinou Thong

    Pinou Thong

    A member of the Quebec Bar since 2007, Pinou Thong has dedicated her career to serving Quebec institutions and the public interest. A committed jurist, she has worked for nearly twenty years within organizations whose mission is to protect the public, promote access to justice and strengthen confidence in institutions. More recently, as Director of Legal Affairs at the Bar of Montreal, she was involved in a number of issues relating to governance, institutional integrity and the fight against the illegal practice of law. Her career has also led her to participate in the modernization of organizational practices, and to work at the intersection of law, public policy and the social issues shaping today's Quebec. Prior to this, she worked for over fifteen years as a lawyer at Loto-Québec, where she was involved in strategic files with regulatory, operational and reputational dimensions. She has also worked for the Quebec Court of Appeal and for federal administrative tribunals in connection with the application of the Employment Insurance Act. Pinou Thong arrived in Quebec at a very young age, with a deep attachment to social justice, inspired by the journey of her Cambodian parents who fled a totalitarian regime. Highly involved in her community, she participates in various initiatives linked to education, inclusion and civic life. Active in the Sanguinet riding, she is particularly involved in her child's school and sports life, as well as in karate in her community. Drawing on her professional experience and civic commitment, she now wishes to put her expertise and energy at the service of the citizens of Sanguinet and actively contribute to the region's future.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Virginie Bernier

    Virginie Bernier

    A tireless community-sector worker, Virginie Bernier knows the realities faced by families, vulnerable people, and the organizations holding communities together. Active in public transportation, housing, education, and accessibility for people with disabilities, she has outstanding grassroots experience. Her versatile profile is valuable to Québec solidaire, and she will bring Sanguinet a strong progressive voice in the National Assembly.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
32.5 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine Fréchette Elected CAQ 14,607 48.8
Daphnée Paquin-Auger PQ 4,882 16.3
Virginie Bernier QS 3,925 13.1
François Gibeault PCQ 3,164 10.6
Rodrigue Asatsop QLP 2,952 9.9
Halimatou Bah Other 325 1.1
Martine Lajoie Other 58 0.2
Hélène Héroux Other 31 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026