Riding profile

Marguerite-Bourgeoys

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Marguerite-Bourgeoys: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 53.0%

    Michel Leblanc

  • PCQ 14.1%

    Sean Ross

  • CAQ 12.6%

    Adam Ahmad

  • PQ 11.4%

    Luc Côté

  • QS 4.9%

    Bryan Gingras

  • Other 4.0%

    Ingénieur Hu Parti accès propriété et équité - Équipe Québec debout

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ CAQ PQ
HereMarguerite-Bourgeoys 53.0%14.1%12.6%11.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +29.6 16.1% −2.0 21.3% −8.7 27.9% −16.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Marguerite-Bourgeoys, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 53% vote share, against 14% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric Beauchemin

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Adam Ahmad

    Adam Ahmad

    Arriving in Quebec at the age of 8, Adam Ahmad stood out through his distinctive political involvement. At 15, he joined the CAQ, where he began his activist engagement. A year later, he became a political attaché at Quebec's National Assembly. As a student who distinguished himself throughout his schooling, he pursued his studies in Lebanon for a year, where he completed the baccalaureate. He is currently pursuing studies in business administration at the Université de Montréal.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Ingénieur Hu

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Sean Ross

    Sean Ross

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Luc Côté

    Luc Côté

    Luc Côté holds a bachelor's degree in political science from the Université du Québec à Montréal and was a social-communications officer for the City of Montreal for 20 years. He also worked as a 311 supervisor and served in the Canadian Armed Forces. He believes Montreal must offer newcomers optimal conditions to learn French and place the language at the heart of society, including mandatory French-language CEGEP attendance; Quebec independence remains the most effective lever to stop its decline.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Michel Leblanc

    Michel Leblanc

    An economist by training, Michel Leblanc led the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal for sixteen years, until stepping down in spring 2025. He previously held senior roles at Génome Québec and Montréal International, after working as an economist at the federal Department of Finance. A Montrealer by birth, he says he was persuaded to run by Liberal leader Charles Milliard, whom he met when Milliard headed the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce. He is known for his economic advocacy, notably for higher immigration targets than those set by the CAQ.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Bryan Gingras

    Bryan Gingras

    A computer engineer and member of the Timiskaming First Nation, Bryan Gingras wishes to put his expertise and experience with health technologies at the service of the citizens of the Marguerite-Bourgeoys riding. Based in Montréal since 2010, he wants to make the cost of living more affordable and improve public transit for the people of LaSalle. Bryan wants to draw on his experience in advanced technologies to build a fairer, more inclusive and greener Québec by defending the ecological transition, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples and the digital transformation of public services.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
21.6 pts
Turnout
54.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fred Beauchemin Elected QLP 12,635 44.8
Vicky Michaud CAQ 6,533 23.1
Aleksa Drakul PCQ 3,103 11.0
Angélique Soleil Lavoie QS 2,898 10.3
Suzanne Tremblay PQ 1,966 7.0
Keeton Clarke Other 549 1.9
Carole Thériault Other 409 1.4
Serge Bellemare Other 123 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026