Riding profile

Marguerite-Bourgeoys

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Marguerite-Bourgeoys: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Editorial read

Marguerite-Bourgeoys, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 65% vote share, against 11% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric Beauchemin

Sits with PLQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 65.0%
  • PCQ 11.0%
  • PQ 8.1%
  • QS 6.4%
  • Other 5.0%
  • CAQ 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PCQ PQ QS
HereMarguerite-Bourgeoys 65.0%11.0%8.1%6.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +37.8 13.2% −2.2 30.1% −21.9 8.3% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PLQ
Margin
21.6 pts
Turnout
54.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+32.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fred Beauchemin Elected PLQ 12,635 44.8
Vicky Michaud CAQ 6,533 23.1
Aleksa Drakul PCQ 3,103 11.0
Angélique Soleil Lavoie QS 2,898 10.3
Suzanne Tremblay PQ 1,966 7.0
Keeton Clarke Other 549 1.9
Carole Thériault Other 409 1.4
Serge Bellemare Other 123 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026