Riding profile
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
The question
Marguerite-Bourgeoys: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 38.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PCQ | CAQ | PQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarguerite-Bourgeoys | 53.0% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +29.6 | 16.1% −2.0 | 21.3% −8.7 | 27.9% −16.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Marguerite-Bourgeoys, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 53% vote share, against 14% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Frédéric Beauchemin
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Adam Ahmad
Arriving in Quebec at the age of 8, Adam Ahmad stood out through his distinctive political involvement. At 15, he joined the CAQ, where he began his activist engagement. A year later, he became a political attaché at Quebec's National Assembly. As a student who distinguished himself throughout his schooling, he pursued his studies in Lebanon for a year, where he completed the baccalaureate. He is currently pursuing studies in business administration at the Université de Montréal.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Ingénieur Hu
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Sean Ross
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Luc Côté
Luc Côté holds a bachelor's degree in political science from the Université du Québec à Montréal and was a social-communications officer for the City of Montreal for 20 years. He also worked as a 311 supervisor and served in the Canadian Armed Forces. He believes Montreal must offer newcomers optimal conditions to learn French and place the language at the heart of society, including mandatory French-language CEGEP attendance; Quebec independence remains the most effective lever to stop its decline.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Michel Leblanc
An economist by training, Michel Leblanc led the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal for sixteen years, until stepping down in spring 2025. He previously held senior roles at Génome Québec and Montréal International, after working as an economist at the federal Department of Finance. A Montrealer by birth, he says he was persuaded to run by Liberal leader Charles Milliard, whom he met when Milliard headed the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce. He is known for his economic advocacy, notably for higher immigration targets than those set by the CAQ.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Bryan Gingras
A computer engineer and member of the Timiskaming First Nation, Bryan Gingras wishes to put his expertise and experience with health technologies at the service of the citizens of the Marguerite-Bourgeoys riding. Based in Montréal since 2010, he wants to make the cost of living more affordable and improve public transit for the people of LaSalle. Bryan wants to draw on his experience in advanced technologies to build a fairer, more inclusive and greener Québec by defending the ecological transition, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples and the digital transformation of public services.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Beauchemin Elected | QLP | 12,635 | 44.8 | — |
| Vicky Michaud | CAQ | 6,533 | 23.1 | — |
| Aleksa Drakul | PCQ | 3,103 | 11.0 | — |
| Angélique Soleil Lavoie | QS | 2,898 | 10.3 | — |
| Suzanne Tremblay | PQ | 1,966 | 7.0 | — |
| Keeton Clarke | Other | 549 | 1.9 | — |
| Carole Thériault | Other | 409 | 1.4 | — |
| Serge Bellemare | Other | 123 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026