Riding profile
D'Arcy-McGee
The question
D'Arcy-McGee: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PCQ | Other | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereD'Arcy-McGee | 51.7% | 25.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +28.3 | 16.1% +9.2 | 1.7% +8.4 | 21.3% −14.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
D'Arcy-McGee, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 52% vote share, against 25% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Elisabeth Prass
Sits with QLP
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- QLP Incumbent
Elisabeth Prass
Having worked as a political advisor for ministers Raymond Bachand and Clément Gignac from 2008 to 2012, Elisabeth Prass has in-depth expertise in economic policy. With 15 years' experience serving the citizens of D'Arcy-McGee's various communities, including as riding office manager for Liberal MP David Birnbaum from 2014 to 2021, she has a thorough understanding of the issues that concern the riding's residents. Mother of two children, one of whom has special needs and attends a school in the riding, daughter of Jewish immigrants from Morocco and Latvia, and raised in Côte-Saint-Luc, Elisabeth Prass made the leap into active politics to ensure a strong voice for D'Arcy-McGee residents at the National Assembly and within the Liberal caucus. "Having spent most of my life living or working politically in the riding, I understand the issues that concern the residents of D'Arcy-McGee. I want to be your voice in Quebec City, defending your values because I know and share them. I'll stand up for the things that matter most to you. Together, we can help shape a better future for generations to come." - Elisabeth Prass, MP for D'Arcy-McGee
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger 
Junlian Leblanc
Health professional, Junlian Leblanc studied at Concordia University in Montreal. Holder of a Bachelor of Science degree in sports therapy, she specializes in injury prevention and rehabilitation.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Joyce Stoliar Shanks
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger 
Adrien D. Pouliot
Adrien D. Pouliot is a lawyer by training, businessman and former leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec. After practising corporate and commercial law, he led CFCF, a family broadcasting company, before moving into technology and telecommunications. His business experience gave him strong expertise in management, economic development and governance. Active in the PCQ since 2013, he remains a member of its policy commission and spokesperson for the economy and public finance. He helps develop the party’s positions and is responsible for its 2026 economic platform and financial framework. He wants to help build a more prosperous Quebec centred on financial rigour, economic freedom and state responsibility.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Maïté Larouche
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elisabeth Prass Elected | QLP | 13,298 | 51.4 | — |
| Bonnie Feigenbaum | PCQ | 5,677 | 21.9 | — |
| Hilal Pilavci | QS | 2,203 | 8.5 | — |
| Junlian Leblanc | CAQ | 1,529 | 5.9 | — |
| Marc Perez | Other | 1,285 | 5.0 | — |
| Renée-Claude Lafontaine | PQ | 648 | 2.5 | — |
| Joel Debellefeuille | Other | 613 | 2.4 | — |
| Moussa Seck | Other | 547 | 2.1 | — |
| Diane Johnston | Other | 66 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026