Riding profile

D'Arcy-McGee

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

D'Arcy-McGee: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Editorial read

D'Arcy-McGee, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 59% vote share, against 21% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Elisabeth Prass

Sits with PLQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Incumbent
    Elisabeth Prass

    Elisabeth Prass

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Junlian Leblanc

    Junlian Leblanc

    Health professional, Junlian Leblanc studied at Concordia University in Montreal. Holder of a Bachelor of Science degree in sports therapy, she specializes in injury prevention and rehabilitation.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 58.6%
  • PCQ 20.5%
  • Other 12.2%
  • CAQ 5.2%
  • PQ 1.9%
  • QS 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PCQ Other CAQ
HereD'Arcy-McGee 58.6%20.5%12.2%5.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +31.5 13.2% +7.3 2.0% +10.2 20.3% −15.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PLQ
Margin
29.5 pts
Turnout
47.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Elisabeth Prass Elected PLQ 13,298 51.4 —
Bonnie Feigenbaum PCQ 5,677 21.9 —
Hilal Pilavci QS 2,203 8.5 —
Junlian Leblanc CAQ 1,529 5.9 —
Marc Perez Other 1,285 5.0 —
Renée-Claude Lafontaine PQ 648 2.5 —
Joel Debellefeuille Other 613 2.4 —
Moussa Seck Other 547 2.1 —
Diane Johnston Other 66 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026