Riding profile

La Pinière

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

La Pinière: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 49.4%

    Linda Caron incumbent

  • CAQ 17.9%

    Clément Mireault

  • PCQ 15.0%

    Tzarevna Bratkova

  • PQ 11.9%

    Sarah Plante

  • QS 3.9%

    Jacinthe Chapleau

  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP CAQ PCQ PQ
HereLa Pinière 49.4%17.9%15.0%11.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +26.0 21.3% −3.4 16.1% −1.2 27.9% −16.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

La Pinière, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 18% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Linda Caron

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Linda Caron

    Linda Caron

    With a Master's degree in Public Administration, Linda Caron has recognized expertise in the fields of governance and public administration. Having held various positions at the École nationale d'administration publique, she has managed projects in municipal management, governance and continuing education for public managers. Some of her projects have won or been finalists for prestigious awards from the Union des municipalités du Québec, the Institut d'administration publique du Québec and the Institute of Public Administration of Canada. A resident of the La Pinière riding for over 30 years, the Liberal MP has a long record of civic involvement. She has been involved with the Maison de la famille de Brossard, the Amis de la Bibliothèque, the Association des gens d'affaires de Brossard and the Paroisse La Résurrection. Her volunteer work extends beyond the borders of the riding, serving on the board of Collège Durocher Saint-Lambert, chairing the Eulalie-Durocher Foundation and co-founding the Durocher Alumni Association. Prior to her career in public administration, Linda Caron was a translation entrepreneur and vice-president of the Ordre des traducteurs, terminologues et interprètes agréés du Québec, which gave her extensive knowledge of the Quebec professional system and the context of self-employed workers.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Clément Mireault

    Clément Mireault

    Resident of La Pinière, where three generations of his family chose to settle, Clément is established in his community. Attached to the quality of life of his citizens and the development of his riding, he is convinced that Quebec's future rests on responsible management, a strong economy and the preservation of our cultural and linguistic uniqueness.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Emilia Farcutiu

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Tina Jiuru Zhu

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Tzarevna Bratkova

    Tzarevna Bratkova

    Originally from Bulgaria and established in Quebec for more than 20 years, she chose to build her life here and actively contribute to her community. A trained lawyer, she now puts her sense of duty and commitment at the service of the population by occupying the functions of a correctional services officer.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sarah Plante

    Sarah Plante

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Jacinthe Chapleau

    Jacinthe Chapleau

    A musician, teacher and activist for the next generation, Jacinthe Chapleau mobilizes young people and workers around access to culture, housing and social justice. Driven by strong environmental convictions, she has been involved for several years in initiatives to protect the land. At the same time, Jacinthe is pursuing a career as a violinist, both performer and teacher. She leads workshops in several elementary schools to make music accessible to young people. Known for her attentiveness, determination and ability to bring people together, Jacinthe Chapleau now wants to put her energy and skills at the service of the people of La Pinière.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
7.3 pts
Turnout
59.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Linda Caron Elected QLP 12,688 38.5
Samuel Gatien CAQ 10,272 31.2
Tzarevna Bratkova PCQ 3,345 10.2
Jean-Claude Mugaba QS 3,301 10.0
Suzanne Gagnon PQ 2,577 7.8
Ryan Akshay Newbergher Other 396 1.2
Donna Pinel Other 371 1.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026