Riding profile
Vachon
The question
Vachon: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 48%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 69%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVachon | 27.6% | 25.7% | 24.4% | 13.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +6.4 | 27.9% −2.2 | 23.4% +0.9 | 16.1% −3.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vachon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Ian Lafrenière
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent
Ian Lafrenière
Ian Lafrenière was known to the public as a spokesperson for the SPVM when he was elected as the Member of Parliament for Vachon in 2018, and later appointed Minister responsible for Indigenous Affairs. He has an extensive background as a police officer, firefighter, soldier, and consultant for UNESCO.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Martine Lajoie
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Martine Boucher
Mother of three children and early childhood educator for 25 years, Martine has dedicated her life to the well-being of children and supporting families. Over the years, she developed a concrete understanding of the challenges parents face daily, whether in terms of services, work-family reconciliation or child development.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Stephan Fogaing
Stephan Fogaing holds bachelor's and master's degrees in aerospace engineering from Polytechnique Montréal and is a certified corporate director. He worked nearly ten years for the Quebec government as an expert in strategic-industry economic development and two years as a strategic adviser at the National Research Council of Canada's aerospace research centre. PQ co-spokesperson for diversity and citizenship from 2023 to 2026, the Vachon candidate brings expertise in economic development, science, technology, and governance. He wants Quebec to become a country and supports integration based on common belonging to the Quebec nation.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Affine Lwalalika
A resident of Saint-Hubert since 2010, Affine Lwalalika is deeply involved in her community. A city council member for the City of Longueuil and the proud mother of two daughters, she is known for her close connection with residents. A law graduate of the University of Montreal, Affine began her professional career in the financial sector, where she worked from 2005 to 2016. She then held communications positions in the office of the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Quebec, in addition to serving as executive assistant to the mayor of Longueuil and her chief of staff for nearly two years. From 2019 to 2021, she worked as the director of institutional and public affairs for the mayor of Brossard. In 2021, she ran for city council as part of Catherine Fournier’s team. After being elected, she served for four years on the City of Longueuil’s executive committee as the official responsible for culture, family, immigration, and intercultural relations, as well as women’s issues. Re-elected in 2025 and driven by her desire to defend the interests of citizens, she decided to make the leap into provincial politics. Throughout her career, she has also been involved in the Sécurité Ferroviaire Rive-Sud citizen movement and on the immigration and integration committee of the Congolese Community of Montreal (COCOM). Today, Affine Lwalalika hopes to continue her commitment to the residents of Vachon by representing their interests in the Quebec National Assembly.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Magdouda Oudjit
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Lafrenière Elected | CAQ | 15,984 | 44.9 | — |
| Yves Mbattang | QLP | 5,718 | 16.1 | — |
| Jean-Philippe Samson | QS | 5,343 | 15.0 | — |
| Adam Wrzesien | PQ | 4,757 | 13.4 | — |
| Martine Boucher | PCQ | 3,166 | 8.9 | — |
| Juan Carlos Nino Caita | Other | 404 | 1.1 | — |
| Jean-Pierre Lacombe | Other | 217 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026