Riding profile
Vachon
The question
Vachon: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Vachon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the PQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Ian Lafrenière
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent 
Ian Lafrenière
Ian Lafrenière was known to the public as a spokesperson for the SPVM when he was elected as the Member of Parliament for Vachon in 2018, and later appointed Minister responsible for Indigenous Affairs. He has an extensive background as a police officer, firefighter, soldier, and consultant for UNESCO.
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PCQ Challenger 
Martine Boucher
Mother of three children and early childhood educator for 25 years, Martine has dedicated her life to the well-being of children and supporting families. Over the years, she developed a concrete understanding of the challenges parents face daily, whether in terms of services, work-family reconciliation or child development.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger 
Affine Lwalalika
source ↗
Current forecast
PLQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 70%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.5
- P(close race)
- 41%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVachon | 33.1% | 28.4% | 20.2% | 9.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +5.9 | 30.1% −1.6 | 20.3% | 13.2% −4.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Lafrenière Elected | CAQ | 15,984 | 44.9 | — |
| Yves Mbattang | PLQ | 5,718 | 16.1 | — |
| Jean-Philippe Samson | QS | 5,343 | 15.0 | — |
| Adam Wrzesien | PQ | 4,757 | 13.4 | — |
| Martine Boucher | PCQ | 3,166 | 8.9 | — |
| Juan Carlos Nino Caita | Other | 404 | 1.1 | — |
| Jean-Pierre Lacombe | Other | 217 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026