Riding profile

Vachon

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Vachon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
48%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
69%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 27.6%

    Ian Lafrenière incumbent

  • PQ 25.7%

    Stephan Fogaing

  • QLP 24.4%

    Affine Lwalalika

  • PCQ 13.1%

    Martine Boucher

  • QS 8.1%

    Magdouda Oudjit

  • Other 1.2%

    Martine Lajoie Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ QLP PCQ
HereVachon 27.6%25.7%24.4%13.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +6.4 27.9% −2.2 23.4% +0.9 16.1% −3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vachon, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ian Lafrenière

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Ian Lafrenière

    Ian Lafrenière

    Ian Lafrenière was known to the public as a spokesperson for the SPVM when he was elected as the Member of Parliament for Vachon in 2018, and later appointed Minister responsible for Indigenous Affairs. He has an extensive background as a police officer, firefighter, soldier, and consultant for UNESCO.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Martine Lajoie

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Martine Boucher

    Martine Boucher

    Mother of three children and early childhood educator for 25 years, Martine has dedicated her life to the well-being of children and supporting families. Over the years, she developed a concrete understanding of the challenges parents face daily, whether in terms of services, work-family reconciliation or child development.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Stephan Fogaing

    Stephan Fogaing

    Stephan Fogaing holds bachelor's and master's degrees in aerospace engineering from Polytechnique Montréal and is a certified corporate director. He worked nearly ten years for the Quebec government as an expert in strategic-industry economic development and two years as a strategic adviser at the National Research Council of Canada's aerospace research centre. PQ co-spokesperson for diversity and citizenship from 2023 to 2026, the Vachon candidate brings expertise in economic development, science, technology, and governance. He wants Quebec to become a country and supports integration based on common belonging to the Quebec nation.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Affine Lwalalika

    Affine Lwalalika

    A resident of Saint-Hubert since 2010, Affine Lwalalika is deeply involved in her community. A city council member for the City of Longueuil and the proud mother of two daughters, she is known for her close connection with residents. A law graduate of the University of Montreal, Affine began her professional career in the financial sector, where she worked from 2005 to 2016. She then held communications positions in the office of the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Quebec, in addition to serving as executive assistant to the mayor of Longueuil and her chief of staff for nearly two years. From 2019 to 2021, she worked as the director of institutional and public affairs for the mayor of Brossard. In 2021, she ran for city council as part of Catherine Fournier’s team. After being elected, she served for four years on the City of Longueuil’s executive committee as the official responsible for culture, family, immigration, and intercultural relations, as well as women’s issues. Re-elected in 2025 and driven by her desire to defend the interests of citizens, she decided to make the leap into provincial politics. Throughout her career, she has also been involved in the Sécurité Ferroviaire Rive-Sud citizen movement and on the immigration and integration committee of the Congolese Community of Montreal (COCOM). Today, Affine Lwalalika hopes to continue her commitment to the residents of Vachon by representing their interests in the Quebec National Assembly.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Magdouda Oudjit

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
28.8 pts
Turnout
68.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Lafrenière Elected CAQ 15,984 44.9
Yves Mbattang QLP 5,718 16.1
Jean-Philippe Samson QS 5,343 15.0
Adam Wrzesien PQ 4,757 13.4
Martine Boucher PCQ 3,166 8.9
Juan Carlos Nino Caita Other 404 1.1
Jean-Pierre Lacombe Other 217 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026