Riding profile
Montarville
The question
Montarville: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Montarville, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Nathalie Roy
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Challenger 
Mathieu Lavoie
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 23%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | QS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontarville | 36.8% | 26.9% | 21.8% | 7.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +6.7 | 20.3% +6.7 | 27.2% −5.4 | 8.3% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Roy Elected | CAQ | 19,045 | 45.9 | — |
| Daniel Michelin | PQ | 7,753 | 18.7 | — |
| Marie-Christine Veilleux | QS | 6,741 | 16.3 | — |
| Lucie Gagnon | PLQ | 5,090 | 12.3 | — |
| Evans Henry | PCQ | 2,124 | 5.1 | — |
| Jeanne Dufour | Other | 601 | 1.4 | — |
| Isadora Lamouche | Other | 134 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026