Riding profile

Montarville

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Montarville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
40%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 33.8%

    Jean-François Cloutier

  • CAQ 26.9%

    Nathalie Roy incumbent

  • QLP 20.4%

    Mathieu Lavoie

  • QS 9.2%

    Ginette Langlois

  • PCQ 8.8%

    Marc Rondeau

  • Other 1.0%

    Annie St-Jacques Présence Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP QS
HereMontarville 33.8%26.9%20.4%9.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.9 21.3% +5.6 23.4% −3.1 9.6% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Montarville, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Nathalie Roy

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Nathalie Roy

    Nathalie Roy

    Member of the National Assembly for Montarville since 2012, Nathalie Roy is Minister of Culture and Communications. She worked for more than 30 years in radio and television at Télémédia, Cogeco, TQS and Radio-Canada, then behind the camera as a news producer at TVA and LCN. A lawyer and member of the Barreau du Québec, she holds a multidisciplinary certificate and a bachelor’s degree in law from Université de Sherbrooke.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Annie St-Jacques

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marc Rondeau

    Marc Rondeau

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jean-François Cloutier

    Jean-François Cloutier

    A seasoned journalist, Jean-François Cloutier worked at the Québecor investigative unit for thirteen years. Over the course of his career, he contributed to the publication of numerous major investigative reports, notably on tax evasion and corruption. For him, the demand for truth is a fundamental value that will continue to guide him in this new chapter of his professional life. Although a convinced indépendantiste since university, our candidate in Montarville has always favoured journalistic caution and objectivity in his work in the service of information. On the eve of a crucial election for Quebec, he wished to lift this duty of reserve in order to fully express his convictions. In his view, independence is the only way to ensure the survival and flourishing of the Quebec nation. He fears that, by remaining in Canada, Quebec identity, of which French is a pillar, will erode, “which is already happening, and it is visible to the naked eye,” he explains.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Mathieu Lavoie

    Mathieu Lavoie

    An entrepreneur, creator, communicator, and leader, Mathieu Lavoie is known for his vision, efficiency, and innovative spirit, which have enabled him to carry out large-scale projects in the fields of business, culture, and education. Mathieu holds a Ph.D. in composition from the University of Montreal and is the co-founder of Vibe Avenue, an audio production studio specializing in video games. He has composed music for numerous projects in Quebec and internationally, including global franchises such as Dungeons & Dragons and Star Trek, as well as Quebec hits like Ultimate Chicken Horse and Tribes of Midgard. After successfully leading the acquisition of his studio by the multinational company Side, he led multidisciplinary teams and managed international projects as a senior director. He also served as an associate professor at UQAM for ten years, helping to train a new generation of artists, directing a graduate program—the École préparatoire de musique—and founding an international competition. At the forefront of the technological revolution that is transforming our society—particularly with the advent of artificial intelligence—he understands the impact of these changes on our economy and our institutions. He is convinced that creativity and innovation are powerful drivers of development for Quebec and are part of the solutions to current and future challenges. As the father of two young daughters and a passionate runner, Mathieu Lavoie is entering politics today out of a sense of duty and conviction. He hopes to put his expertise as a builder to work for the government in order to modernize our public services, boost the competitiveness of local businesses, and vigorously defend the quality of life for Montarville’s residents. You can also follow him on:

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Ginette Langlois

    Ginette Langlois

    Ginette Langlois is a social worker who has been engaged for more than 33 years and is driven by a profound desire to build a fairer and more equal society. After nearly 20 years of union involvement with the Fédération des professionnèles of the CSN, including several years as president, she is entering politics to help concretely improve people’s lives. Her commitment is grounded in the importance of acting on the social determinants of health, including the cost of living, housing, education and the environment.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
78.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nathalie Roy Elected CAQ 19,045 45.9
Daniel Michelin PQ 7,753 18.7
Marie-Christine Veilleux QS 6,741 16.3
Lucie Gagnon QLP 5,090 12.3
Evans Henry PCQ 2,124 5.1
Jeanne Dufour Other 601 1.4
Isadora Lamouche Other 134 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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