Riding profile

Chambly

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Chambly: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 33.6%

    Julie Guyot

  • CAQ 28.5%

    Jean-François Roberge incumbent

  • QLP 15.8%

    Sarah Belbey

  • PCQ 12.1%

    Margarita Kantor

  • QS 9.4%

    Jessyca Sorel

  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereChambly 33.6%28.5%15.8%12.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.7 21.3% +7.2 23.4% −7.7 16.1% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chambly, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-François Roberge

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Jean-François Roberge

    Jean-François Roberge

    Before being elected as Member of Parliament for Chambly and appointed Minister of Education, Jean-François Roberge was involved in various causes while practicing his profession as a teacher. He published two novels, followed by an essay titled 'What If We Reinvented School?'

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Margarita Kantor

    Margarita Kantor

    Margarita Kantor has a professional background in healthcare, industrial relations, organizational development, and entrepreneurship. After working in emergency services, she held strategic leadership positions in the public and private sectors. Her experience gives her a strong understanding of the realities of the labour market, businesses, and families. Margarita wishes to represent the citizens of Chambly with pragmatism, attentiveness, and determination. She advocates concrete solutions to stimulate economic development, reduce bureaucracy, improve access to healthcare, and restore purchasing power to families.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Julie Guyot

    Julie Guyot

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sarah Belbey

    Sarah Belbey

    A political science student, Sarah knows firsthand the reality of many young people who must juggle between studies, work, and personal projects. Over the past five years, she has worked full-time while pursuing her studies full-time, an experience that has given her a concrete understanding of the challenges her generation faces. Mental health, access to healthcare, and the ability to find suitable housing are issues particularly close to her heart. × I commit to voting for Sarah Belbey as MP in the riding of Chambly

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Jessyca Sorel

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.6 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-François Roberge Elected CAQ 18,500 48.5 —
Marie-Laurence Desgagné PQ 6,831 17.9 —
Vincent Michaux-St-Louis QS 6,250 16.4 —
Daniel Desnoyers PCQ 3,181 8.3 —
Lina Yunes QLP 2,997 7.8 —
Sanae Chahad Other 341 0.9 —
Caroline Boisvert Other 70 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026