Riding profile
Chambly
The question
Chambly: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Chambly, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jean-François Roberge
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent 
Jean-François Roberge
Before being elected as Member of Parliament for Chambly and appointed Minister of Education, Jean-François Roberge was involved in various causes while practicing his profession as a teacher. He published two novels, followed by an essay titled 'What If We Reinvented School?'
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 92%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.1
- P(close race)
- 35%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | QS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChambly | 36.9% | 30.0% | 16.1% | 8.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +6.8 | 20.3% +9.7 | 27.2% −11.1 | 8.3% −0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-François Roberge Elected | CAQ | 18,500 | 48.5 | — |
| Marie-Laurence Desgagné | PQ | 6,831 | 17.9 | — |
| Vincent Michaux-St-Louis | QS | 6,250 | 16.4 | — |
| Daniel Desnoyers | PCQ | 3,181 | 8.3 | — |
| Lina Yunes | PLQ | 2,997 | 7.8 | — |
| Sanae Chahad | Other | 341 | 0.9 | — |
| Caroline Boisvert | Other | 70 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026