Riding profile
Saint-Jean
The question
Saint-Jean: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Editorial read
Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 31% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Louis Lemieux
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PCQ Challenger 
Luc Sanfaçon
From Quebec and raised in Beauport, Luc is a curious, creative man deeply attached to good work. Passionate about concrete projects, he believes that discipline, perseverance, and the desire to constantly progress are the keys to overcoming challenges.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger 
Patrice Léger-Bourgoin
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.7
- P(close race)
- 13%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PLQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-Jean | 41.5% | 30.9% | 12.6% | 7.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +11.4 | 20.3% +10.6 | 27.2% −14.6 | 13.2% −5.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Lemieux Elected | CAQ | 21,734 | 50.6 | — |
| Alexandre Girard-Duchaine | PQ | 8,248 | 19.2 | — |
| Pierre-Luc Lavertu | QS | 6,334 | 14.8 | — |
| Dominick Melnitzky | PCQ | 3,603 | 8.4 | — |
| Benjamin Roy | PLQ | 2,565 | 6.0 | — |
| Denis Thériault | Other | 290 | 0.7 | — |
| Raymond Choquette | Other | 133 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026