Riding profile
Saint-Jean
The question
Saint-Jean: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.3
- P(close race)
- 20%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-Jean | 36.8% | 27.5% | 14.5% | 12.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +8.9 | 21.3% +6.2 | 23.4% −8.9 | 16.1% −4.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Louis Lemieux
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Yves Bisson
A seasoned manager, Yves Bisson has been active for 30 years in the upper echelons of the Mouvement Desjardins. As General Manager of the Caisse Desjardins du Haut-Richelieu since 2020, he has developed close relationships in Saint-Jean with businesspeople, entrepreneurs, organizations, and above all with those who bring the riding to life on a daily basis: families, workers, young people, seniors, and engaged citizens. Mr. Bisson holds a Master of Business Administration (International MBA) from the Université du Québec à Montréal, a certificate in finance and administration from the Université du Québec à Hull, and a bachelor's degree in psychology from the University of Ottawa. Well established in the region, Yves Bisson has long been involved as a volunteer in various organizations in his community. Vice-President of the Board of Directors of the Cégep de Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, he is also Vice-President of the Board of Directors of the Fondation Santé Haut-Richelieu–Rouville. A unifying leader, invested in the economic development and vitality of his region, he wishes to contribute to its growth and to improving the quality of life of its citizens.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Denis Thériault
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Julie Larouche
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Luc Sanfaçon
Originally from Quebec City and raised in Beauport, Luc has training in food service and agri-food acquired at the Institut de technologie agroalimentaire de Saint-Hyacinthe. His career with SMEs and large companies has given him a solid understanding of the agri-food sector and Quebec's economic realities. Passionate about Quebec know-how, he is deeply committed to regional development. Luc wishes to represent the residents of Saint-Jean with attentiveness, pragmatism, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to lighten the tax and regulatory burden, improve access to health care, facilitate access to home ownership, and foster a more dynamic economy for the benefit of families and entrepreneurs.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Gaétan Bédard
Gaétan Bédard, our candidate in Saint-Jean, held several senior leadership positions within the Canadian Armed Forces, notably as commandant of the Royal Military College Saint-Jean. His career also includes roles as chief of staff to the Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff, commandant of the Leadership and Recruit School, and as officer in charge of operational planning in the Middle East. Since 2023, he has been working as a senior project manager and information technology consultant. He has also received several distinctions for his service in Afghanistan, Haiti, and in senior operational roles. “My professional background may be atypical in the political sphere, but it has allowed me to witness sovereign nations that, despite having less advanced economies than ours, more complex geographic situations, fewer resources, and less mature and effective institutions, would never abandon their sovereignty.”
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QLP Challenger
Patrice Léger-Bourgoin
Born in Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, I hold a bachelor's degree in political science and history from the Université de Montréal. I began my career in the media, notably at the regional radio station CFLV, at The Canadian Press and at CKAC 730. Drawing on my experience in communications and journalism, I then turned to public affairs and government relations, serving as spokesperson for recognized organizations such as Culinar, Domtar and the Casino de Montréal. An experienced manager, I put my expertise to work in the associative sector as executive director of the Association des brasseurs du Québec. In this role, I represented the brewing industry before government bodies and business partners, developing an in-depth understanding of industrial and regulatory issues. I currently hold the position of executive director of the Association des producteurs maraîchers du Québec, where I oversee the operations of the Place des producteurs on boulevard Pie-IX in Montreal, one of the largest wholesale fruit and vegetable markets in eastern North America. This strategic role has given me a solid command of agri-food issues and supply chains, at the heart of the regional economy of Saint-Jean. × I commit to voting for Patrice Léger-Bourgoin as member for the constituency of Saint-Jean
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Pierre-Luc Lavertu
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Lemieux Elected | CAQ | 21,734 | 50.6 | — |
| Alexandre Girard-Duchaine | PQ | 8,248 | 19.2 | — |
| Pierre-Luc Lavertu | QS | 6,334 | 14.8 | — |
| Dominick Melnitzky | PCQ | 3,603 | 8.4 | — |
| Benjamin Roy | QLP | 2,565 | 6.0 | — |
| Denis Thériault | Other | 290 | 0.7 | — |
| Raymond Choquette | Other | 133 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026