Riding profile

Saint-Jean

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Saint-Jean: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.8%

    Gaétan Bédard

  • CAQ 27.5%

    Yves Bisson

  • QLP 14.5%

    Patrice Léger-Bourgoin

  • PCQ 12.0%

    Luc Sanfaçon

  • QS 8.6%

    Pierre-Luc Lavertu

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereSaint-Jean 36.8%27.5%14.5%12.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +8.9 21.3% +6.2 23.4% −8.9 16.1% −4.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Louis Lemieux

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Yves Bisson

    Yves Bisson

    A seasoned manager, Yves Bisson has been active for 30 years in the upper echelons of the Mouvement Desjardins. As General Manager of the Caisse Desjardins du Haut-Richelieu since 2020, he has developed close relationships in Saint-Jean with businesspeople, entrepreneurs, organizations, and above all with those who bring the riding to life on a daily basis: families, workers, young people, seniors, and engaged citizens. Mr. Bisson holds a Master of Business Administration (International MBA) from the Université du Québec à Montréal, a certificate in finance and administration from the Université du Québec à Hull, and a bachelor's degree in psychology from the University of Ottawa. Well established in the region, Yves Bisson has long been involved as a volunteer in various organizations in his community. Vice-President of the Board of Directors of the Cégep de Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, he is also Vice-President of the Board of Directors of the Fondation Santé Haut-Richelieu–Rouville. A unifying leader, invested in the economic development and vitality of his region, he wishes to contribute to its growth and to improving the quality of life of its citizens.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Denis Thériault

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Julie Larouche

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Luc Sanfaçon

    Luc Sanfaçon

    Originally from Quebec City and raised in Beauport, Luc has training in food service and agri-food acquired at the Institut de technologie agroalimentaire de Saint-Hyacinthe. His career with SMEs and large companies has given him a solid understanding of the agri-food sector and Quebec's economic realities. Passionate about Quebec know-how, he is deeply committed to regional development. Luc wishes to represent the residents of Saint-Jean with attentiveness, pragmatism, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to lighten the tax and regulatory burden, improve access to health care, facilitate access to home ownership, and foster a more dynamic economy for the benefit of families and entrepreneurs.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Gaétan Bédard

    Gaétan Bédard

    Gaétan Bédard, our candidate in Saint-Jean, held several senior leadership positions within the Canadian Armed Forces, notably as commandant of the Royal Military College Saint-Jean. His career also includes roles as chief of staff to the Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff, commandant of the Leadership and Recruit School, and as officer in charge of operational planning in the Middle East. Since 2023, he has been working as a senior project manager and information technology consultant. He has also received several distinctions for his service in Afghanistan, Haiti, and in senior operational roles. “My professional background may be atypical in the political sphere, but it has allowed me to witness sovereign nations that, despite having less advanced economies than ours, more complex geographic situations, fewer resources, and less mature and effective institutions, would never abandon their sovereignty.”

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Patrice Léger-Bourgoin

    Patrice Léger-Bourgoin

    Born in Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, I hold a bachelor's degree in political science and history from the Université de Montréal. I began my career in the media, notably at the regional radio station CFLV, at The Canadian Press and at CKAC 730. Drawing on my experience in communications and journalism, I then turned to public affairs and government relations, serving as spokesperson for recognized organizations such as Culinar, Domtar and the Casino de Montréal. An experienced manager, I put my expertise to work in the associative sector as executive director of the Association des brasseurs du Québec. In this role, I represented the brewing industry before government bodies and business partners, developing an in-depth understanding of industrial and regulatory issues. I currently hold the position of executive director of the Association des producteurs maraîchers du Québec, where I oversee the operations of the Place des producteurs on boulevard Pie-IX in Montreal, one of the largest wholesale fruit and vegetable markets in eastern North America. This strategic role has given me a solid command of agri-food issues and supply chains, at the heart of the regional economy of Saint-Jean. × I commit to voting for Patrice Léger-Bourgoin as member for the constituency of Saint-Jean

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Pierre-Luc Lavertu

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.4 pts
Turnout
69.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louis Lemieux Elected CAQ 21,734 50.6
Alexandre Girard-Duchaine PQ 8,248 19.2
Pierre-Luc Lavertu QS 6,334 14.8
Dominick Melnitzky PCQ 3,603 8.4
Benjamin Roy QLP 2,565 6.0
Denis Thériault Other 290 0.7
Raymond Choquette Other 133 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026