Riding profile
Iberville
The question
Iberville: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 50%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 69%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereIberville | 30.8% | 30.8% | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +9.5 | 27.9% +2.9 | 16.1% −0.9 | 23.4% −9.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Iberville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for the PQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Audrey Bogemans
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent
Audrey Bogemans
A true ambassador of the farming profession, Audrey is a fine example of determination. She dedicated more than ten years to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Haut-Richelieu.
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PCQ Challenger
Mathieu Guérin
A resident of Saint-Césaire–Rougemont for over fifteen years, Mathieu Guérin has diverse experience in the manufacturing, agricultural, and real estate sectors. His career has given him solid expertise in project management, product development, and customer service, while providing him with a good understanding of the realities of families, entrepreneurs, and agricultural producers in the region. Mathieu wants to represent the citizens of Iberville with listening, rigour, and proximity. He advocates concrete solutions to improve families' quality of life, promote regional economic development, support access to homeownership, and promote responsible management of the State for the benefit of taxpayers.
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PQ Challenger
Camille Pellerin-Forget
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QLP Challenger
Vanessa Riendeau
Vanessa's background combines farming experience, management, administration and civic commitment. She holds a college diploma in farm management from Cégep Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, as well as a bachelor's degree in business administration and a master's degree in project management from Université du Québec en Outaouais. In the course of her career, she has acquired diversified experience in both public and private organizations. In particular, she worked for the Canada Border Services Agency, both in the Montérégie region and in Ottawa, before pursuing her career at GardaWorld and then Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton, where she most recently held the position of Senior Risk Management Advisor in the Ethics and Professional Conduct Department. Having grown up in contact with the agricultural community through her involvement with the family farm in Saint-Rémi, Vanessa Riendeau has a deep understanding of the realities of the region's producers, entrepreneurs and families. Her background has also enabled her to develop solid expertise in management, governance and problem-solving. Involved for many years in community and political life, she has taken part in a number of volunteer initiatives and has been involved with the Quebec Liberal Party since her youth. Driven by a desire to contribute to the development of her community, she now wishes to put her experience and energy at the service of the citizens of Iberville, and to support the region's priorities with determination.
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QS Challenger
Nicolas Chatel-Launay
A Sabrevois resident, Nicolas is deeply committed to protecting biodiversity and developing strong, sustainable local agriculture. A biologist and agro-environment specialist, he believes we can fight climate change while improving families' quality of life. When he talks about the environment, he is talking above all about people—more specifically, our health, our food security, and the future we will leave to coming generations. Building a greener and fairer Quebec is the vision he undertakes to carry for Iberville.
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audrey Bogemans Elected | CAQ | 18,223 | 53.1 | — |
| Jean-Alexandre Côté | PQ | 5,227 | 15.2 | — |
| Philippe Jetten-Vigeant | QS | 4,703 | 13.7 | — |
| Anne Casabonne | PCQ | 3,863 | 11.3 | — |
| Steve Trinque | QLP | 1,934 | 5.6 | — |
| Philippe Brassard | Other | 257 | 0.8 | — |
| Jean-Charles Cléroux | Other | 81 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026