Riding profile

Iberville

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Iberville: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Iberville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 35% vote share, against 35% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Audrey Bogemans

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Audrey Bogemans

    Audrey Bogemans

    A true ambassador of the farming profession, Audrey is a fine example of determination. She dedicated more than ten years to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Haut-Richelieu.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Mathieu Guérin

    Mathieu Guérin

    A resident of Saint-Césaire–Rougemont for over fifteen years, Mathieu Guérin has a diverse professional background that led him to evolve in the manufacturing, agricultural, and real estate sectors. Throughout his career, he developed solid expertise in project management, product development, and customer support, while gaining a concrete understanding of the economic and social realities of his region.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Vanessa Riendeau

    source ↗

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 35.1%
  • PQ 35.1%
  • PLQ 12.2%
  • PCQ 10.9%
  • QS 6.1%
  • Other 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PLQ PCQ
HereIberville 35.1%35.1%12.2%10.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +14.8 30.1% +5.0 27.2% −15.0 13.2% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
37.9 pts
Turnout
70.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-34.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Audrey Bogemans Elected CAQ 18,223 53.1 —
Jean-Alexandre Côté PQ 5,227 15.2 —
Philippe Jetten-Vigeant QS 4,703 13.7 —
Anne Casabonne PCQ 3,863 11.3 —
Steve Trinque PLQ 1,934 5.6 —
Philippe Brassard Other 257 0.8 —
Jean-Charles Cléroux Other 81 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026