Riding profile

Iberville

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Iberville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
69%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 30.8%

    Audrey Bogemans incumbent

  • PQ 30.8%

    Camille Pellerin-Forget

  • PCQ 15.3%

    Mathieu Guérin

  • QLP 14.4%

    Vanessa Riendeau

  • QS 8.2%

    Nicolas Chatel-Launay

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereIberville 30.8%30.8%15.3%14.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +9.5 27.9% +2.9 16.1% −0.9 23.4% −9.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Iberville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Audrey Bogemans

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Audrey Bogemans

    Audrey Bogemans

    A true ambassador of the farming profession, Audrey is a fine example of determination. She dedicated more than ten years to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Haut-Richelieu.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Mathieu Guérin

    Mathieu Guérin

    A resident of Saint-Césaire–Rougemont for over fifteen years, Mathieu Guérin has diverse experience in the manufacturing, agricultural, and real estate sectors. His career has given him solid expertise in project management, product development, and customer service, while providing him with a good understanding of the realities of families, entrepreneurs, and agricultural producers in the region. Mathieu wants to represent the citizens of Iberville with listening, rigour, and proximity. He advocates concrete solutions to improve families' quality of life, promote regional economic development, support access to homeownership, and promote responsible management of the State for the benefit of taxpayers.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Camille Pellerin-Forget

    Camille Pellerin-Forget

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Vanessa Riendeau

    Vanessa Riendeau

    Vanessa's background combines farming experience, management, administration and civic commitment. She holds a college diploma in farm management from Cégep Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, as well as a bachelor's degree in business administration and a master's degree in project management from Université du Québec en Outaouais. In the course of her career, she has acquired diversified experience in both public and private organizations. In particular, she worked for the Canada Border Services Agency, both in the Montérégie region and in Ottawa, before pursuing her career at GardaWorld and then Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton, where she most recently held the position of Senior Risk Management Advisor in the Ethics and Professional Conduct Department. Having grown up in contact with the agricultural community through her involvement with the family farm in Saint-Rémi, Vanessa Riendeau has a deep understanding of the realities of the region's producers, entrepreneurs and families. Her background has also enabled her to develop solid expertise in management, governance and problem-solving. Involved for many years in community and political life, she has taken part in a number of volunteer initiatives and has been involved with the Quebec Liberal Party since her youth. Driven by a desire to contribute to the development of her community, she now wishes to put her experience and energy at the service of the citizens of Iberville, and to support the region's priorities with determination.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Nicolas Chatel-Launay

    Nicolas Chatel-Launay

    A Sabrevois resident, Nicolas is deeply committed to protecting biodiversity and developing strong, sustainable local agriculture. A biologist and agro-environment specialist, he believes we can fight climate change while improving families' quality of life. When he talks about the environment, he is talking above all about people—more specifically, our health, our food security, and the future we will leave to coming generations. Building a greener and fairer Quebec is the vision he undertakes to carry for Iberville.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
37.9 pts
Turnout
70.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Audrey Bogemans Elected CAQ 18,223 53.1
Jean-Alexandre Côté PQ 5,227 15.2
Philippe Jetten-Vigeant QS 4,703 13.7
Anne Casabonne PCQ 3,863 11.3
Steve Trinque QLP 1,934 5.6
Philippe Brassard Other 257 0.8
Jean-Charles Cléroux Other 81 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026