Riding profile

Saint-Hyacinthe

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Saint-Hyacinthe: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
66%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.9%

    Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

  • CAQ 31.7%

    Jessika Gardner

  • PCQ 13.7%

    Alexandre Dion Rolland

  • QLP 12.7%

    Mariliz Turla-Vadnais

  • QS 8.4%

    Philippe Daigneault

  • Other 0.6%

    Julie Desmarais Parti culinaire du Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereSaint-Hyacinthe 32.9%31.7%13.7%12.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.0 21.3% +10.4 16.1% −2.4 23.4% −10.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Hyacinthe, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chantal Soucy

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Jessika Gardner

    Jessika Gardner

    Born and raised in Saint-Hyacinthe, Jessika Gardner is deeply rooted in the region, where she built most of her professional career. In 2006, she founded ProCheer, a cheerleading school based in Saint-Hyacinthe. Starting from scratch, she gradually developed the business and still serves as its general manager. For 20 years, she has enabled young people to practise a physical activity in an environment that values personal excellence, discipline, teamwork and confidence. Alongside developing her business, Jessika Gardner pursued university studies. She holds a bachelor’s degree in communications from the Université de Montréal and a bachelor’s degree in kinesiology from the Université de Sherbrooke. This path, pursued alongside her entrepreneurial and professional responsibilities, demonstrates her rigour, perseverance and ability to manage several projects simultaneously. She also held a human resources position at Olymel, an important regional employer. She therefore brings a dual perspective: that of an entrepreneur who creates and develops jobs and that of a professional who has worked in a large workplace. By building ProCheer from the ground up, Jessika Gardner gained solid experience in management and entrepreneurship, as well as in coordinating construction and development projects. A mother of two young children, she knows families’ realities firsthand. Her work with young people and training in kinesiology naturally lead her to give an important place to youth, recreation and physical activity. Since 2022, Jessika Gardner has sat on the board of Fonds Émergence Estrie, where she is also developing governance experience. As a Coalition Avenir Québec candidate, Jessika Gardner wishes to continue the work begun in the riding and put her energy, experience and determination at the service of Saint-Hyacinthe. She identifies with a pragmatic approach focused on action, concrete results and finding solutions, and wishes to help advance the riding’s priority files.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Julie Desmarais

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Alexandre Dion Rolland

    Alexandre Dion Rolland

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

    Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

    Essayist and socio-economist, Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay's writings focus largely on Quebec's state in the world. Member of Parliament for Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton since 2019, he now wishes to represent the citizens of Saint-Hyacinthe within a Parti Québécois government. In his view, the best way to defend our interests, whether economic or identity-based, is to make Quebec a country. In the meantime, he will ensure he is part of a team that knows how to defend Quebec's voice. "At a time when our economy, our identity and our collective capacity to act will come under increasing pressure, I deeply believe that Quebec will need a government that is strong, competent and deeply rooted in Quebec's national interests. I want to contribute to this effort. I want to put at the service of Quebec the experience acquired over recent years: in trade agreements, in intergovernmental relations, in economic and international matters, and in the concrete defense of our national interests," says the candidate.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Mariliz Turla-Vadnais

    Mariliz Turla-Vadnais

    Born and raised in Saint-Hyacinthe, Mariliz Turla-Vadnais has deep ties to her city and region. An entrepreneur and former city council member, she has always been driven by a desire to bring people together, defend their interests, and make a tangible contribution to the development of her community. With a bachelor’s degree in communications from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, her career path has led her to work in the public, private, and community sectors. At age 23, she joined the team of former New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant, where she gained a solid understanding of public institutions. She then founded her own company at the age of 24, gaining in-depth knowledge of the challenges faced by entrepreneurs who create jobs and contribute to the prosperity of their communities. Elected as a municipal councilor in the New Brunswick capital region, Mariliz advocates in particular for the interests of Francophone military families living in minority communities and plays an active role in protecting the French language. Over the years, she has worked with hundreds of organizations in the government, private, and community sectors across Eastern Canada, notably as a communications strategist. These experiences have given her a deeper understanding of the realities faced by families, workers, farmers, entrepreneurs, and volunteers who contribute every day to the vitality of our communities. With a career that has taken her across Canada and around the world, Mariliz Turla-Vadnais now hopes to put her expertise to work for the residents of Saint-Hyacinthe and her community.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Philippe Daigneault

    Philippe Daigneault

    Philippe Daigneault has taught English as a second language at Cégep de Saint-Hyacinthe for more than 12 years and has been an active Québec solidaire activist since 2017. Born and raised in the region, he is actively involved in his community, both at work and in citizen initiatives related to housing, urban planning, and social issues. A department coordinator and former local co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire, he was also a candidate in 2022 and regularly participates in party bodies. Present in the community, he devotes himself to listening to its needs and defending social and community struggles.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
37.5 pts
Turnout
70.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chantal Soucy Elected CAQ 22,487 54.4
Alexis Gagné-Lebrun PQ 6,900 16.7
Philippe Daigneault QS 5,636 13.6
Kim Beaudoin PCQ 4,066 9.8
Agnieszka Wnorowska QLP 1,705 4.1
Mustapha Jaalouk Other 217 0.5
Julie Raiche Other 168 0.4
Gary Daigneault Other 142 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026