Riding profile
Saint-Hyacinthe
The question
Saint-Hyacinthe: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 60%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 66%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-Hyacinthe | 32.9% | 31.7% | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +5.0 | 21.3% +10.4 | 16.1% −2.4 | 23.4% −10.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint-Hyacinthe, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Chantal Soucy
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Jessika Gardner
Born and raised in Saint-Hyacinthe, Jessika Gardner is deeply rooted in the region, where she built most of her professional career. In 2006, she founded ProCheer, a cheerleading school based in Saint-Hyacinthe. Starting from scratch, she gradually developed the business and still serves as its general manager. For 20 years, she has enabled young people to practise a physical activity in an environment that values personal excellence, discipline, teamwork and confidence. Alongside developing her business, Jessika Gardner pursued university studies. She holds a bachelor’s degree in communications from the Université de Montréal and a bachelor’s degree in kinesiology from the Université de Sherbrooke. This path, pursued alongside her entrepreneurial and professional responsibilities, demonstrates her rigour, perseverance and ability to manage several projects simultaneously. She also held a human resources position at Olymel, an important regional employer. She therefore brings a dual perspective: that of an entrepreneur who creates and develops jobs and that of a professional who has worked in a large workplace. By building ProCheer from the ground up, Jessika Gardner gained solid experience in management and entrepreneurship, as well as in coordinating construction and development projects. A mother of two young children, she knows families’ realities firsthand. Her work with young people and training in kinesiology naturally lead her to give an important place to youth, recreation and physical activity. Since 2022, Jessika Gardner has sat on the board of Fonds Émergence Estrie, where she is also developing governance experience. As a Coalition Avenir Québec candidate, Jessika Gardner wishes to continue the work begun in the riding and put her energy, experience and determination at the service of Saint-Hyacinthe. She identifies with a pragmatic approach focused on action, concrete results and finding solutions, and wishes to help advance the riding’s priority files.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Julie Desmarais
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Alexandre Dion Rolland
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
Essayist and socio-economist, Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay's writings focus largely on Quebec's state in the world. Member of Parliament for Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton since 2019, he now wishes to represent the citizens of Saint-Hyacinthe within a Parti Québécois government. In his view, the best way to defend our interests, whether economic or identity-based, is to make Quebec a country. In the meantime, he will ensure he is part of a team that knows how to defend Quebec's voice. "At a time when our economy, our identity and our collective capacity to act will come under increasing pressure, I deeply believe that Quebec will need a government that is strong, competent and deeply rooted in Quebec's national interests. I want to contribute to this effort. I want to put at the service of Quebec the experience acquired over recent years: in trade agreements, in intergovernmental relations, in economic and international matters, and in the concrete defense of our national interests," says the candidate.
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QLP Challenger
Mariliz Turla-Vadnais
Born and raised in Saint-Hyacinthe, Mariliz Turla-Vadnais has deep ties to her city and region. An entrepreneur and former city council member, she has always been driven by a desire to bring people together, defend their interests, and make a tangible contribution to the development of her community. With a bachelor’s degree in communications from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, her career path has led her to work in the public, private, and community sectors. At age 23, she joined the team of former New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant, where she gained a solid understanding of public institutions. She then founded her own company at the age of 24, gaining in-depth knowledge of the challenges faced by entrepreneurs who create jobs and contribute to the prosperity of their communities. Elected as a municipal councilor in the New Brunswick capital region, Mariliz advocates in particular for the interests of Francophone military families living in minority communities and plays an active role in protecting the French language. Over the years, she has worked with hundreds of organizations in the government, private, and community sectors across Eastern Canada, notably as a communications strategist. These experiences have given her a deeper understanding of the realities faced by families, workers, farmers, entrepreneurs, and volunteers who contribute every day to the vitality of our communities. With a career that has taken her across Canada and around the world, Mariliz Turla-Vadnais now hopes to put her expertise to work for the residents of Saint-Hyacinthe and her community.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Philippe Daigneault
Philippe Daigneault has taught English as a second language at Cégep de Saint-Hyacinthe for more than 12 years and has been an active Québec solidaire activist since 2017. Born and raised in the region, he is actively involved in his community, both at work and in citizen initiatives related to housing, urban planning, and social issues. A department coordinator and former local co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire, he was also a candidate in 2022 and regularly participates in party bodies. Present in the community, he devotes himself to listening to its needs and defending social and community struggles.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chantal Soucy Elected | CAQ | 22,487 | 54.4 | — |
| Alexis Gagné-Lebrun | PQ | 6,900 | 16.7 | — |
| Philippe Daigneault | QS | 5,636 | 13.6 | — |
| Kim Beaudoin | PCQ | 4,066 | 9.8 | — |
| Agnieszka Wnorowska | QLP | 1,705 | 4.1 | — |
| Mustapha Jaalouk | Other | 217 | 0.5 | — |
| Julie Raiche | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
| Gary Daigneault | Other | 142 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026