Riding profile

Borduas

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Borduas: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Borduas, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Simon Jolin-Barrette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Simon Jolin-Barrette

    Simon Jolin-Barrette

    Elected as Member of Parliament for Borduas in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, Simon Jolin-Barrette holds several ministerial positions. He is the Minister of Justice, parliamentary leader, Minister responsible for Secularism and Parliamentary Reform, and Minister of French Language.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
22%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 40.3%
  • CAQ 31.6%
  • PLQ 12.1%
  • QS 8.1%
  • PCQ 7.2%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ QS
HereBorduas 40.3%31.6%12.1%8.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +10.2 20.3% +11.3 27.2% −15.1 8.3% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.8 pts
Turnout
74.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon Jolin-Barrette Elected CAQ 22,760 51.2 —
Paule Laprise PQ 8,646 19.5 —
Benoît Landry QS 6,726 15.1 —
Jean-Félix Racicot PCQ 3,357 7.6 —
Eribert Charles PLQ 2,326 5.2 —
Thomas Thibault-Vincent Other 463 1.0 —
Marcel Thibodeau Other 93 0.2 —
Stephen Gauthier Other 58 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026