Riding profile
Borduas
The question
Borduas: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 24%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBorduas | 36.9% | 28.2% | 13.7% | 11.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +9.0 | 21.3% +6.9 | 23.4% −9.7 | 16.1% −4.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Borduas, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Simon Jolin-Barrette
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent
Simon Jolin-Barrette
Elected as Member of Parliament for Borduas in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, Simon Jolin-Barrette holds several ministerial positions. He is the Minister of Justice, parliamentary leader, Minister responsible for Secularism and Parliamentary Reform, and Minister of French Language.
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Frédéric Phaneuf
Born in Quebec City and raised on Montreal's South Shore, I now live in Saint-Marc-sur-Richelieu with my partner, a teacher, and three of our four children. The Phaneuf family has been present in the Borduas region for several generations, notably through Mathias Phaneuf in the early 1700s. This family connection makes this region much more than a riding: it is a community to which I am deeply attached. My path took me from the Canadian Armed Forces to work as a paramedic, and then, fulfilling a childhood dream, to becoming an airline pilot for a major airline. Each step taught me discipline, leadership, responsibility, the ability to quickly detect what is abnormal and, above all, the importance of making decisions when it truly matters. Today, it is above all as a father that I worry about the direction we are taking. Seeing our children struggle to afford a home, lose purchasing power or wait months for essential care is not a fate I am prepared to accept. I am not entering politics because I need a title. I am getting involved because I believe we can do better, together. I believe in a freer, more autonomous Quebec that is more responsible for its own decisions, where the state listens to and serves citizens rather than the reverse. For our families, our community and, above all, the next generation.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme
Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme, director of legal affairs and compliance at OPAL-RT Technologies Inc., has been a lawyer since 2008. With degrees in law and business administration (MBA), he specializes in contract advice and commercial, civil, regulatory, environmental, and administrative litigation. A PQ candidate in 2018 and 2022, he seeks to serve Borduas in the National Assembly and protect Quebec's language, culture, and values.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Xavier Mercier
Originally from Mont-Saint-Hilaire, where he grew up for nearly 25 years, Xavier Mercier knows the riding intimately. A former Au-Fil-de-l'Eau primary and Ozias-Leduc secondary student, he played for the Mont-Saint-Hilaire Cougars for seven years. He began as a carpenter-joiner, completed a bachelor's in business administration at UQAM while working full time, then worked in finance at Bank of Montreal and Manulife before helping develop a Toronto-based Canadian fintech. During his mandate, its assets grew from $35 million to $2.2 billion in four years. More recently he was North American sales director at Ezeflow. Since 2024 he has been vice-chair of the Fondation Camp de santé de Saint-Hyacinthe. Personally aware of neurodivergence issues, he wants better services for neurodivergent adults and their families. He now wants to serve Borduas citizens with his management, business-development and leadership experience.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Audrey Mc Nicoll
Audrey Mc Nicoll carries a political project rooted in the reality of her region and wishes to defend people too often excluded from political spaces. Involved since adolescence in the community sector, notably with Jeunesse Lambda, Audrey has gained concrete experience in managing organizations and social intervention. As a committed young activist, she can rely on concrete experience that allows her to understand the issues faced on the ground and speak about them. Audrey wants to build a Quebec that takes care of everyone, through well-funded community organizations, more accessible mental health services, and better recognition of the realities of marginalized people.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Jolin-Barrette Elected | CAQ | 22,760 | 51.2 | — |
| Paule Laprise | PQ | 8,646 | 19.5 | — |
| Benoît Landry | QS | 6,726 | 15.1 | — |
| Jean-Félix Racicot | PCQ | 3,357 | 7.6 | — |
| Eribert Charles | QLP | 2,326 | 5.2 | — |
| Thomas Thibault-Vincent | Other | 463 | 1.0 | — |
| Marcel Thibodeau | Other | 93 | 0.2 | — |
| Stephen Gauthier | Other | 58 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026