Riding profile

Borduas

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Borduas: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
8.7
P(close race)
24%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.9%

    Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme

  • CAQ 28.2%

    Simon Jolin-Barrette incumbent

  • QLP 13.7%

    Xavier Mercier

  • PCQ 11.3%

    Frédéric Phaneuf

  • QS 9.3%

    Audrey Mc Nicoll

  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereBorduas 36.9%28.2%13.7%11.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +9.0 21.3% +6.9 23.4% −9.7 16.1% −4.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Borduas, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Simon Jolin-Barrette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Simon Jolin-Barrette

    Simon Jolin-Barrette

    Elected as Member of Parliament for Borduas in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, Simon Jolin-Barrette holds several ministerial positions. He is the Minister of Justice, parliamentary leader, Minister responsible for Secularism and Parliamentary Reform, and Minister of French Language.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Frédéric Phaneuf

    Frédéric Phaneuf

    Born in Quebec City and raised on Montreal's South Shore, I now live in Saint-Marc-sur-Richelieu with my partner, a teacher, and three of our four children. The Phaneuf family has been present in the Borduas region for several generations, notably through Mathias Phaneuf in the early 1700s. This family connection makes this region much more than a riding: it is a community to which I am deeply attached. My path took me from the Canadian Armed Forces to work as a paramedic, and then, fulfilling a childhood dream, to becoming an airline pilot for a major airline. Each step taught me discipline, leadership, responsibility, the ability to quickly detect what is abnormal and, above all, the importance of making decisions when it truly matters. Today, it is above all as a father that I worry about the direction we are taking. Seeing our children struggle to afford a home, lose purchasing power or wait months for essential care is not a fate I am prepared to accept. I am not entering politics because I need a title. I am getting involved because I believe we can do better, together. I believe in a freer, more autonomous Quebec that is more responsible for its own decisions, where the state listens to and serves citizens rather than the reverse. For our families, our community and, above all, the next generation.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme

    Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme

    Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme, director of legal affairs and compliance at OPAL-RT Technologies Inc., has been a lawyer since 2008. With degrees in law and business administration (MBA), he specializes in contract advice and commercial, civil, regulatory, environmental, and administrative litigation. A PQ candidate in 2018 and 2022, he seeks to serve Borduas in the National Assembly and protect Quebec's language, culture, and values.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Xavier Mercier

    Xavier Mercier

    Originally from Mont-Saint-Hilaire, where he grew up for nearly 25 years, Xavier Mercier knows the riding intimately. A former Au-Fil-de-l'Eau primary and Ozias-Leduc secondary student, he played for the Mont-Saint-Hilaire Cougars for seven years. He began as a carpenter-joiner, completed a bachelor's in business administration at UQAM while working full time, then worked in finance at Bank of Montreal and Manulife before helping develop a Toronto-based Canadian fintech. During his mandate, its assets grew from $35 million to $2.2 billion in four years. More recently he was North American sales director at Ezeflow. Since 2024 he has been vice-chair of the Fondation Camp de santé de Saint-Hyacinthe. Personally aware of neurodivergence issues, he wants better services for neurodivergent adults and their families. He now wants to serve Borduas citizens with his management, business-development and leadership experience.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Audrey Mc Nicoll

    Audrey Mc Nicoll

    Audrey Mc Nicoll carries a political project rooted in the reality of her region and wishes to defend people too often excluded from political spaces. Involved since adolescence in the community sector, notably with Jeunesse Lambda, Audrey has gained concrete experience in managing organizations and social intervention. As a committed young activist, she can rely on concrete experience that allows her to understand the issues faced on the ground and speak about them. Audrey wants to build a Quebec that takes care of everyone, through well-funded community organizations, more accessible mental health services, and better recognition of the realities of marginalized people.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
31.8 pts
Turnout
74.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon Jolin-Barrette Elected CAQ 22,760 51.2
Paule Laprise PQ 8,646 19.5
Benoît Landry QS 6,726 15.1
Jean-Félix Racicot PCQ 3,357 7.6
Eribert Charles QLP 2,326 5.2
Thomas Thibault-Vincent Other 463 1.0
Marcel Thibodeau Other 93 0.2
Stephen Gauthier Other 58 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026