Riding profile
Granby
The question
Granby: a safe seat for the CAQ?
Current forecast
CAQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGranby | 37.0% | 24.8% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +15.8 | 27.9% −3.1 | 16.1% −1.0 | 23.4% −8.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Granby, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible. This riding is composed of fragments of the former Granby (100 %) and Brome-Missisquoi (24 %).
Sitting member
François Bonnardel
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger
Claudine Leroux
A manager deeply rooted in her community, Claudine Leroux has devoted more than 30 years to the development of families, organizations and her region.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Andrzej Wisniowski
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Jimmy Paquin
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Marc-Antoine Huet-Mailly
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Jean-François Arsenault
A graduate of HEC Montréal's sustainable-development certificate, Jean-François Arsenault is president and CEO of Holocie Coop de solidarité. Since 2022 he has also chaired the Haute-Yamaska Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Haute-Yamaska Community Development Corporation and Vie Culturelle et communautaire de Granby. He has been director general of Action Emploi Haute-Yamaska since 2021. In recent years he was treasurer of Groupe Action Solutions Pauvreté, a board member representing Eastern Townships chambers at the Fédération des Chambres de commerce du Québec, and president of Coop HEC Montréal. He worked as a financial-security adviser at Desjardins and other firms from 2006 to 2022. He says his experience in local economic development, housing and community vitality showed him that mobilizing regional forces can accomplish great things, and he wants to put his coordination experience to work in tackling challenges, with housing as his priority.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Claudie Bérubé
With more than 35 years of experience at the intersection of communications, media, culture, tourism, and partnerships, Claudie Bérubé is making the leap into provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. A native of the Bas-Saint-Laurent region with deep roots in Granby, where she spent part of her teenage years, she holds a degree in communications from Laval University and a master’s degree in public administration from ENAP. Throughout her career, she has supported numerous organizations in their development, transformation, and outreach. Driven by a desire to serve her community, she is now entering politics. A seasoned communications professional and strategist, she has developed expertise in promoting organizations and building lasting partnerships. With a keen awareness of regional issues, she knows how to rally stakeholders around shared visions and transformative projects. As an entrepreneur, Claudie Bérubé has helped organizations with their strategic development and transformation. Her approach is based on active listening, dialogue, and collaboration. In 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, she decided to return to the Estrie region to care for her mother. Claudie’s commitment to the citizens of Granby is rooted in a deep conviction: the government must return to its core missions, spend every dollar wisely, and put people back at the heart of its decisions. Housing, dignity, and safety for the most vulnerable are her top priorities. Convinced that Granby deserves a strong voice in the National Assembly, she intends to champion regional issues with diligence and compassion, to build a Quebec where everyone can live with dignity, have a roof over their head, have enough to eat, and feel heard.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Méliane St-Amand
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Bonnardel Elected | CAQ | 21,515 | 58.2 | — |
| Anne-Sophie Legault | QS | 5,282 | 14.3 | — |
| Guy Bouthillier | PQ | 4,378 | 11.8 | — |
| Stéphane Bernier | PCQ | 3,737 | 10.1 | — |
| Penny Lamarre | QLP | 1,758 | 4.8 | — |
| Andrzej Wisniowski | Other | 263 | 0.7 | — |
| Jimmy Paquin | Other | 38 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026