Riding profile
Granby
The question
Granby: a safe seat for the CAQ?
Editorial read
Granby, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible. This riding is composed of fragments of the former Granby (100 %) and Brome-Missisquoi (24 %).
Sitting member
François Bonnardel
Sits with CAQ
Current forecast
CAQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | PLQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGranby | 36.3% | 24.6% | 19.9% | 10.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.3% +16.0 | 30.1% −5.5 | 27.2% −7.2 | 13.2% −2.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Bonnardel Elected | CAQ | 21,515 | 58.2 | — |
| Anne-Sophie Legault | QS | 5,282 | 14.3 | — |
| Guy Bouthillier | PQ | 4,378 | 11.8 | — |
| Stéphane Bernier | PCQ | 3,737 | 10.1 | — |
| Penny Lamarre | PLQ | 1,758 | 4.8 | — |
| Andrzej Wisniowski | Other | 263 | 0.7 | — |
| Jimmy Paquin | Other | 38 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026