Riding profile

Granby

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Granby: a safe seat for the CAQ?

Current forecast

CAQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 37.0%

    Claudine Leroux

  • PQ 24.8%

    Jean-François Arsenault

  • PCQ 15.1%

    Marc-Antoine Huet-Mailly

  • QLP 14.5%

    Claudie Bérubé

  • QS 7.8%

    Méliane St-Amand

  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereGranby 37.0%24.8%15.1%14.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +15.8 27.9% −3.1 16.1% −1.0 23.4% −8.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Granby, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible. This riding is composed of fragments of the former Granby (100 %) and Brome-Missisquoi (24 %).

Sitting member

François Bonnardel

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Claudine Leroux

    Claudine Leroux

    A manager deeply rooted in her community, Claudine Leroux has devoted more than 30 years to the development of families, organizations and her region.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Andrzej Wisniowski

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jimmy Paquin

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marc-Antoine Huet-Mailly

    Marc-Antoine Huet-Mailly

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jean-François Arsenault

    Jean-François Arsenault

    A graduate of HEC Montréal's sustainable-development certificate, Jean-François Arsenault is president and CEO of Holocie Coop de solidarité. Since 2022 he has also chaired the Haute-Yamaska Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Haute-Yamaska Community Development Corporation and Vie Culturelle et communautaire de Granby. He has been director general of Action Emploi Haute-Yamaska since 2021. In recent years he was treasurer of Groupe Action Solutions Pauvreté, a board member representing Eastern Townships chambers at the Fédération des Chambres de commerce du Québec, and president of Coop HEC Montréal. He worked as a financial-security adviser at Desjardins and other firms from 2006 to 2022. He says his experience in local economic development, housing and community vitality showed him that mobilizing regional forces can accomplish great things, and he wants to put his coordination experience to work in tackling challenges, with housing as his priority.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Claudie Bérubé

    Claudie Bérubé

    With more than 35 years of experience at the intersection of communications, media, culture, tourism, and partnerships, Claudie Bérubé is making the leap into provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. A native of the Bas-Saint-Laurent region with deep roots in Granby, where she spent part of her teenage years, she holds a degree in communications from Laval University and a master’s degree in public administration from ENAP. Throughout her career, she has supported numerous organizations in their development, transformation, and outreach. Driven by a desire to serve her community, she is now entering politics. A seasoned communications professional and strategist, she has developed expertise in promoting organizations and building lasting partnerships. With a keen awareness of regional issues, she knows how to rally stakeholders around shared visions and transformative projects. As an entrepreneur, Claudie Bérubé has helped organizations with their strategic development and transformation. Her approach is based on active listening, dialogue, and collaboration. In 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, she decided to return to the Estrie region to care for her mother. Claudie’s commitment to the citizens of Granby is rooted in a deep conviction: the government must return to its core missions, spend every dollar wisely, and put people back at the heart of its decisions. Housing, dignity, and safety for the most vulnerable are her top priorities. Convinced that Granby deserves a strong voice in the National Assembly, she intends to champion regional issues with diligence and compassion, to build a Quebec where everyone can live with dignity, have a roof over their head, have enough to eat, and feel heard.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Méliane St-Amand

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
42.2 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Bonnardel Elected CAQ 21,515 58.2
Anne-Sophie Legault QS 5,282 14.3
Guy Bouthillier PQ 4,378 11.8
Stéphane Bernier PCQ 3,737 10.1
Penny Lamarre QLP 1,758 4.8
Andrzej Wisniowski Other 263 0.7
Jimmy Paquin Other 38 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026