Riding profile

Brome-Missisquoi

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Brome-Missisquoi: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 27.4%

    Manuela Goya

  • PQ 26.1%

    Patrick Melchior

  • QLP 21.1%

    Frédéric Beauchemin

  • PCQ 15.6%

    David Alarie

  • QS 7.4%

    Michelle Corcos

  • Other 2.4%

    Michelle Julien Canadian Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ QLP PCQ
HereBrome-Missisquoi 27.4%26.1%21.1%15.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +6.2 27.9% −1.8 23.4% −2.3 16.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brome-Missisquoi, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Isabelle Charest

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Manuela Goya

    Manuela Goya

    Born in Romania, Manuela Goya made Quebec her home. Driven by a deep attachment to the French language and the richness of Quebec's cultural identity, it is here that she gave meaning to her personal and professional journey.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Michelle Julien

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    David Alarie

    David Alarie

    From the region, David is a father of four children who knows well the realities and challenges faced by local families. His career is marked by values of hard work, responsibility, and commitment to his community.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Patrick Melchior

    Patrick Melchior

    Patrick has a long record in municipal politics: mayor of the City of Farnham since 2017, he was, from 2019 to 2025, the youngest prefect of the MRC de Brome-Missisquoi. His understanding of his region's realities and of the various levels of municipal governance is a valuable asset for the Parti Québécois team. A committed sovereigntist for many years, Patrick is convinced that the Parti Québécois is the best vehicle for governing Quebec with vision and ambition. "I am entering this race above all to serve the citizens of Brome-Missisquoi, to whom I have always felt close. I have been mayor of Farnham since 2017. It is a position I love. I feel extremely privileged to have earned my fellow citizens' confidence in the last three municipal elections. As prefect of the MRC from 2019 to 2025, I grasped the crucial issues affecting our region: police coverage, health, sustainable mobility, homelessness, agricultural realities, the housing crisis and the route of Hydro-Québec's future power line, to name only these matters. I am convinced I can make the concerns of the people of Brome-Missisquoi heard in Quebec City, with a firm determination to improve their quality of life."

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Frédéric Beauchemin

    Frédéric Beauchemin

    Deputy Parliamentary Leader of the Official Opposition and Member of Marguerite-Bourgeoys

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Michelle Corcos

    Michelle Corcos

    Michelle Corcos wants to represent Québec solidaire in Brome-Missisquoi, drawing on the experience, determination, and values that have guided her commitment for more than 20 years. Trained in hotel management, marketing, and traditional Chinese medicine, she is an acupuncturist, a board member of the Ordre des acupuncteurs du Québec, and a longtime activist for climate justice and participatory democracy. Her background gives her an understanding of economic realities as well as health issues and the challenges specific to Eastern Townships communities. She wants to represent Brome-Missisquoi residents in the National Assembly and defend a greener, more democratic, and more solidaristic Quebec.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.0 pts
Turnout
68.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Isabelle Charest Elected CAQ 20,576 45.9
Alexandre Legault QS 7,138 15.9
Guillaume Paquet PQ 5,359 11.9
Claude Vadeboncoeur QLP 5,344 11.9
Stéphanie Prévost PCQ 4,875 10.9
Lynn Moore Other 642 1.4
Caitlin Moynan Other 487 1.1
Sébastien Houle Other 209 0.5
Tommy Quirion-Bouchard Other 121 0.3
Pierre Fontaine Other 105 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026