Riding profile

Daniel-Johnson

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Daniel-Johnson: a safe seat for the CAQ?

Editorial read

Daniel-Johnson, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

André Lamontagne

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Challenger

    Éric Sévigny

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Nathalie Boisclair

    Nathalie Boisclair

    Public engagement has always been at the heart of her career. Nathalie worked in several school boards and served as a municipal councillor.

    source ↗

Current forecast

CAQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 37.4%
  • PQ 24.1%
  • PLQ 15.8%
  • PCQ 14.5%
  • QS 7.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PLQ PCQ
HereDaniel-Johnson 37.4%24.1%15.8%14.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +17.1 30.1% −6.0 27.2% −11.3 13.2% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
36.0 pts
Turnout
68.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
André Lamontagne Elected CAQ 21,944 52.5 —
Luce Daneau PCQ 6,323 15.1 —
Jérémie Poirier PQ 6,024 14.4 —
Nancy Mongeau QS 5,769 13.8 —
Mounirou Younoussa PLQ 1,469 3.5 —
Cindy Courtemanche Other 271 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026