Riding profile

Daniel-Johnson

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Daniel-Johnson: a safe seat for the CAQ?

Current forecast

CAQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 33.6%

    Christine Nadeau

  • PQ 25.8%

    Nathalie Boisclair

  • PCQ 19.6%

    Marc Distexhe

  • QLP 12.3%

    Éric Sévigny

  • QS 8.1%

    Tony Martel

  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereDaniel-Johnson 33.6%25.8%19.6%12.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +12.3 27.9% −2.1 16.1% +3.4 23.4% −11.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Daniel-Johnson, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

André Lamontagne

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Christine Nadeau

    Christine Nadeau

    Christine Nadeau has worked in education for more than 20 years, mainly as a school principal. She now leads vocational training, adult education and business services at the Sorel-Tracy school service centre. She holds a master's degree in educational management and has devoted her career to improving educational services, mobilizing teams and bringing education closer to employers' and the labour market's needs. Her career has also led her to develop strategic partnerships supporting training and employability. A woman of action, a unifier and deeply committed to others' success, Christine now wants to put her experience at the service of Daniel-Johnson citizens. She wants to contribute concretely to education, workforce training, the economy and integration, while helping improve public services and quality of life.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Marc Distexhe

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Nathalie Boisclair

    Nathalie Boisclair

    Public engagement has always been at the heart of her career. Nathalie worked in several school boards and served as a municipal councillor.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Éric Sévigny

    Éric Sévigny

    Originally from the Eastern Townships, Éric Sévigny has devoted his career to land-use planning, economic development and municipal management. He holds a bachelor's degree in geography from Université de Sherbrooke and a master's degree in urban planning from Université de Montréal, and has more than twenty years of experience serving communities. After beginning his career in the federal public service in transportation and greenhouse-gas emissions reduction, he chose to put his expertise at the service of the municipal world. He successively served as general manager of Waterloo, Bromont and, most recently, Sherbrooke. Throughout his career, Éric Sévigny led several transformative projects for the Eastern Townships, including revitalizing residential, commercial and industrial areas, developing municipal infrastructure, creating regional partnerships and expanding innovation hubs. In Bromont, he notably contributed to obtaining the designation of Technum Québec, the microelectronics innovation zone. In Sherbrooke, he actively participated in developing DistriQ, Quebec's first quantum innovation zone. Deeply attached to his region, Éric Sévigny now wants to put his experience in public management, regional development and governance at the service of the citizens of Daniel-Johnson. Convinced that regions must be at the heart of Quebec's development, he intends to rigorously defend the priorities of families, entrepreneurs and municipalities in the beautiful riding of Daniel-Johnson. × I commit to voting for Éric Sévigny as member for the riding of Daniel-Johnson

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Tony Martel

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
36.0 pts
Turnout
68.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
André Lamontagne Elected CAQ 21,944 52.5 —
Luce Daneau PCQ 6,323 15.1 —
Jérémie Poirier PQ 6,024 14.4 —
Nancy Mongeau QS 5,769 13.8 —
Mounirou Younoussa QLP 1,469 3.5 —
Cindy Courtemanche Other 271 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026