Riding profile
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
The question
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 81%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | 31.2% | 27.1% | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +10.0 | 27.9% −0.8 | 16.1% +5.9 | 23.4% −11.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the PQ, and the race could swing. This riding is composed of fragments of the former Johnson (74 %) and Nicolet-Bécancour (22 %).
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- CAQ Challenger
Patrick Saindon
With 35 years of experience in the aerospace sector, Patrick Saindon devoted his career at Bombardier to the development, certification and quality of new aircraft, as well as to managing civil and military projects. His background gives him strong expertise in the strategic defence sector. A longtime resident of Montérégie, Patrick has lived in Saint-Mathias-sur-Richelieu for nearly 30 years, a community for which Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu is an important service hub. Active in his community and in politics for nearly 20 years, he notably served as a municipal councillor. Involved with the Coalition since 2017, Patrick now wishes to put his experience, unifying leadership and expertise in defence, transportation and the economy at the service of the citizens of Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie and Quebec's development.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Mario Roy
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger 
Laura Tremblay
A young mother and care worker, Laura Tremblay is recognized for her listening, compassion and commitment to others. Passionate about politics since adolescence, she wishes to put her experience in the health sector at the service of the citizens of Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie and contribute to improving the daily lives of families, workers and seniors. Laura wishes to represent citizens with proximity, listening and determination. She advocates for concrete solutions to improve access to healthcare, support families, promote responsible management of public finances and offer better prospects for future generations. She believes that a more prosperous Quebec is based on more efficient public services, a strong economy and a government at the service of citizens.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Natalie Bisaillon
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger 
Alexandra Houle
Born in Drummondville, where she has lived for more than 30 years, Alexandra Houle until recently served as director general of the Drummond Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCID). Since joining in 2019, she led its strategic, financial and human-resource management, mobilized socioeconomic stakeholders and acted as spokesperson. Raised in a family deeply involved in politics, she entered public life as a teenager. She began her career in property and casualty insurance (2003–2014), and first became a political staffer in 2007, returning to that role from 2014 to 2019, managing constituency offices, municipal and community files and direct citizen support. The PLQ candidate in Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie has also served on many regional boards, including Cégep Drummond, Plein air Drummond, Parc Aventure Drummond, the Jeune Chambre de Drummond and the Centre-du-Québec regional labour-market partners council.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Sébastien Bage
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lamontagne Elected | CAQ | 21,944 | 52.5 | — |
| Luce Daneau | PCQ | 6,323 | 15.1 | — |
| Jérémie Poirier | PQ | 6,024 | 14.4 | — |
| Nancy Mongeau | QS | 5,769 | 13.8 | — |
| Mounirou Younoussa | QLP | 1,469 | 3.5 | — |
| Cindy Courtemanche | Other | 271 | 0.7 | — |
| Donald Martel Elected | CAQ | 13,956 | 47.0 | — |
| Mario Lyonnais | PCQ | 6,595 | 22.2 | — |
| Philippe Dumas | PQ | 5,095 | 17.2 | — |
| Jacques Thériault Watso | QS | 2,610 | 8.8 | — |
| Marie-Josée Jacques | QLP | 1,406 | 4.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026