Riding profile
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
The question
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie: a safe seat for the CAQ?
Editorial read
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible. This riding is composed of fragments of the former Johnson (74 %) and Nicolet-Bécancour (22 %).
Current forecast
CAQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PQ | PCQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | 39.7% | 28.6% | 17.2% | 9.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.3% +19.4 | 30.1% −1.4 | 13.2% +4.1 | 27.2% −17.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lamontagne Elected | CAQ | 21,944 | 52.5 | — |
| Luce Daneau | PCQ | 6,323 | 15.1 | — |
| Jérémie Poirier | PQ | 6,024 | 14.4 | — |
| Nancy Mongeau | QS | 5,769 | 13.8 | — |
| Mounirou Younoussa | PLQ | 1,469 | 3.5 | — |
| Cindy Courtemanche | Other | 271 | 0.7 | — |
| Donald Martel Elected | CAQ | 13,956 | 47.0 | — |
| Mario Lyonnais | PCQ | 6,595 | 22.2 | — |
| Philippe Dumas | PQ | 5,095 | 17.2 | — |
| Jacques Thériault Watso | QS | 2,610 | 8.8 | — |
| Marie-Josée Jacques | PLQ | 1,406 | 4.7 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026