Riding profile

Richelieu

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Richelieu: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Competitive

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 37.9%

    Jocelyn Desjardins

  • CAQ 29.6%

    Jean-Bernard Émond incumbent

  • QLP 13.3%

    Gilles Delorme

  • PCQ 12.4%

    Christian Blouin

  • QS 6.3%

    Julien Bergeron

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereRichelieu 37.9%29.6%13.3%12.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +10.0 21.3% +8.3 23.4% −10.1 16.1% −3.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richelieu, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jean-Bernard Émond

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Jean-Bernard Émond

    Jean-Bernard Émond

    Jean-Bernard Émond is a founding member of the CAQ. This talented entrepreneur, with a degree in pedagogy, worked as a vocational teacher for 5 years and was also owner and partner of an architectural signage firm from 1999 to 2011.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-Louis Raymond

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Martin Larivière

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Christian Blouin

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jocelyn Desjardins

    Jocelyn Desjardins

    Former journalist and announcer for Radio-Canada and L'Actualité médicale, Jocelyn served as communications officer at the Syndicat des Métallos for fifteen years. Close to people, our candidate has already begun meeting with citizens in his riding who have shared their concerns about the economy.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Gilles Delorme

    Gilles Delorme

    With more than forty years of experience in human-resources management, organizational development, training and municipal politics, former Marieville mayor Gilles Delorme is entering provincial politics by joining the Quebec Liberal Party. With an impressive and diverse academic background, he holds a master's degree in public administration from École nationale d'administration publique (ÉNAP) and a bachelor's degree in industrial relations from Université de Montréal (UdeM). He also holds a graduate diploma in education and training from Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS), as well as a certificate in community recreation leadership from Université de Montréal. Gilles Delorme was a partner at Delorme RH Conseil, a consulting firm offering strategic human-resources management and leadership-coaching advice and solutions to executives, managers and businesses. Throughout his career, he held various leadership and advisory roles in the public and private sectors, particularly in administration, consulting and education. During his career, the PLQ candidate in Richelieu worked with major organizations including Santé Québec, CIUSSS de l'Ouest de Montréal, Centre de services scolaire Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Canada Post, Nortel Networks, Right-Axmith Conseil, Hitachi International, the City of Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and Société de développement de la Baie-James. Alongside his career, Mr. Delorme also served his community on the boards of Société d'économie mixte de l'est de la couronne sud (SEMECS), Société d'exploitation de la centrale de traitement d'eau Chambly-Marieville-Richelieu, Centre de santé et de services sociaux Haut-Richelieu-Rouville and Fondation Santé Haut-Richelieu-Rouville. × I commit to voting for Gilles Delorme as member for the riding of Richelieu

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Julien Bergeron

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
35.4 pts
Turnout
68.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Bernard Émond Elected CAQ 17,098 55.9 —
Gabriel Arpin PQ 6,204 20.3 —
David Dionne QS 3,084 10.1 —
Marie-Ève Dionne PCQ 2,697 8.8 —
Anthony Sauriol QLP 1,262 4.1 —
Alejandra Velasquez Other 165 0.5 —
André Blanchette Other 82 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026