Riding profile

Richmond

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Richmond: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 29.8%

    Bernard Sévigny

  • CAQ 24.7%

    Guillaume Rousseau

  • PCQ 19.1%

    Dominic Bouffard

  • QLP 13.9%

    Hugo Fontaine

  • QS 12.0%

    David Poulin-Latulippe

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereRichmond 29.8%24.7%19.1%13.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +1.9 21.3% +3.4 16.1% +3.0 23.4% −9.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richmond, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

André Bachand

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Guillaume Rousseau

    Guillaume Rousseau

    A renowned lawyer and professor at the Faculty of Law of the University of Sherbrooke, where he also served as vice-dean and program director, Guillaume Rousseau has contributed to public debates and reflections on the future of Quebec for several years. Holder of a doctorate in law obtained through a joint degree between Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University and Laval University, he also holds a master's degree in comparative law from McGill University, with a specialization in human rights and cultural diversity, and graduated with a bachelor's degree in law from the University of Sherbrooke.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Dominic Bouffard

    Dominic Bouffard

    Construction entrepreneur for over 23 years and with more than 30 years of experience in the field, Dominic has built his career on hard work, rigor, and a sense of responsibility. His journey allowed him to develop concrete knowledge of the realities faced by workers, families, and entrepreneurs.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Bernard Sévigny

    Bernard Sévigny

    Former mayor of Sherbrooke for eight years, Bernard also served as president of the Union des municipalités du Québec from 2016 to 2017. Our candidate is driven by public service and is passionate about local and regional development.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Hugo Fontaine

    Hugo Fontaine

    Born in Sherbrooke, Hugo Fontaine is a journalist and manager who has always been interested in public affairs. Regional development, wealth creation, and community vitality are at the heart of his concerns, which have become the driving force behind his political involvement. After completing college-level studies in journalism and earning his bachelor’s degree in political science, Hugo began his career as a general-interest reporter at La Tribune, then moved to La Presse, where he specialized in business and financial journalism. After seven years as a reporter, he served as manager of the Business section at La Presse. Returning to his home region in 2021 to take the helm of La Tribune as general manager, he spearheaded the newspaper’s technological transformation and the evolution of its business model. He also served on the executive committee of Coops de l’information. After nearly two decades in the media, he became a public relations consultant for companies and organizations. Inspired by the urban-rural duality of the Richmond riding, where he lives, Hugo Fontaine aims to promote business growth—including agricultural businesses—support youth development, and highlight the contributions of newcomers. More broadly, he aims to promote and showcase the successes of the Estrie region, particularly in the areas of innovation and collaboration.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    David Poulin-Latulippe

    David Poulin-Latulippe

    A clinical psychologist for more than 20 years, David Poulin-Latulippe has devoted his career to developing mental-health services for diverse populations and settings. He notably worked for several years with Inuit communities in Nunavik. Building a fairer and more inclusive health-care system in Québec requires people who know realities on the ground and have the necessary expertise. That is exactly what David brings to the Québec solidaire team, and it is with this deeply humanist vision that he wants to represent the people of Richmond in the National Assembly.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.2 pts
Turnout
71.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
André Bachand Elected CAQ 21,255 46.8
Philippe Pagé QS 9,031 19.9
Marylaine Bélair PCQ 6,683 14.7
Jacinthe Caron PQ 5,803 12.8
Mona Louis-Jean QLP 2,476 5.5
Richard Magnan Other 112 0.3
Raymond de Martin Other 105 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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