Riding profile
Saint-François
The question
Saint-François: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.0
- P(close race)
- 50%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QS | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-François | 28.0% | 23.0% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +0.1 | 21.3% +1.7 | 9.6% +6.7 | 23.4% −7.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint-François, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 23% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Geneviève Hébert
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent
Geneviève Hébert
An authentic Sherbrooke native, Geneviève Hébert was elected as the Member of Parliament for Saint-François in 2018 while her family has been established there for four generations. An engaged merchant, she owned Mère Poule boutique on King East Street for 14 years, specializing in breastfeeding and children's products.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Sylvie Peloquin
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Esteban Mendez-Hord
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Sylvie Tanguay
A trained nurse, Sylvie has worked at the CIUSSS of Estrie-CHUS since 2003. With more than twenty years of experience in the health network, Sylvie was able to observe its challenges and issues.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Jacqueline Belleau
A seasoned manager, public-affairs professional and recognized consensus builder, Jacqueline Belleau has devoted her career to community development, public service and bringing citizens, institutions and organizations closer together. Her path from the United Nations to the Eastern Townships reflects a constant commitment to the common good. Originally from Indiana, she studied political science and French at Stetson University before completing a master's degree in international development at the University of Geneva. She then began a career with the United Nations, working in development, humanitarian aid and immigration, notably in Geneva, Armenia and New York. Living in Sherbrooke since 2004, Jacqueline Belleau raised her family there and became deeply rooted in the region. Over the past twenty years, she has held leadership positions in the private, public and community sectors, notably at NGC Aérospatial, Actions interculturelles, the Sherbrooke Phoenix and alongside the Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau. Today, she is manager of philanthropy and corporate partnerships at Bishop's University Foundation, helping strengthen ties among the university community, businesses, donors and the community. A Francophile deeply attached to Quebec, Jacqueline Belleau has always been involved in community life. Recognized for bringing people together, building consensus and advancing projects pragmatically, she now wants to put her experience, attentiveness and leadership at the service of the citizens of Saint-François. × I commit to voting for Jacqueline Belleau as member for the riding of Saint-François
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Mia Frechette
Vice-President of TransEstrie and a frontline social worker, Mia Fréchette sees the consequences of the crises hitting Quebec on a daily basis. She is particularly sensitive to the fate of the most vulnerable, who are the first victims of underfunded public services and the rising cost of living. Embodying a new generation involved in politics, Mia is running with Québec solidaire in order to fight for those who are being left behind.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geneviève Hébert Elected | CAQ | 17,280 | 42.4 | — |
| Mélissa Généreux | QS | 11,491 | 28.2 | — |
| Dany Bernier | PCQ | 4,483 | 11.0 | — |
| Sylvie Tanguay | PQ | 3,712 | 9.1 | — |
| Claude Charron | QLP | 3,220 | 7.9 | — |
| Colleen McInerney | Other | 285 | 0.7 | — |
| Olivier Dion | Other | 257 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026