Riding profile

Saint-François

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Saint-François: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
50%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 28.0%

    Sylvie Tanguay

  • CAQ 23.0%

    Geneviève Hébert incumbent

  • QS 16.3%

    Mia Frechette

  • QLP 16.3%

    Jacqueline Belleau

  • PCQ 15.5%

    Esteban Mendez-Hord

  • Other 1.0%

    Sylvie Peloquin Présence Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QS QLP
HereSaint-François 28.0%23.0%16.3%16.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +0.1 21.3% +1.7 9.6% +6.7 23.4% −7.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-François, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 23% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Geneviève Hébert

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Geneviève Hébert

    Geneviève Hébert

    An authentic Sherbrooke native, Geneviève Hébert was elected as the Member of Parliament for Saint-François in 2018 while her family has been established there for four generations. An engaged merchant, she owned Mère Poule boutique on King East Street for 14 years, specializing in breastfeeding and children's products.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Sylvie Peloquin

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Esteban Mendez-Hord

    Esteban Mendez-Hord

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sylvie Tanguay

    Sylvie Tanguay

    A trained nurse, Sylvie has worked at the CIUSSS of Estrie-CHUS since 2003. With more than twenty years of experience in the health network, Sylvie was able to observe its challenges and issues.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Jacqueline Belleau

    Jacqueline Belleau

    A seasoned manager, public-affairs professional and recognized consensus builder, Jacqueline Belleau has devoted her career to community development, public service and bringing citizens, institutions and organizations closer together. Her path from the United Nations to the Eastern Townships reflects a constant commitment to the common good. Originally from Indiana, she studied political science and French at Stetson University before completing a master's degree in international development at the University of Geneva. She then began a career with the United Nations, working in development, humanitarian aid and immigration, notably in Geneva, Armenia and New York. Living in Sherbrooke since 2004, Jacqueline Belleau raised her family there and became deeply rooted in the region. Over the past twenty years, she has held leadership positions in the private, public and community sectors, notably at NGC Aérospatial, Actions interculturelles, the Sherbrooke Phoenix and alongside the Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau. Today, she is manager of philanthropy and corporate partnerships at Bishop's University Foundation, helping strengthen ties among the university community, businesses, donors and the community. A Francophile deeply attached to Quebec, Jacqueline Belleau has always been involved in community life. Recognized for bringing people together, building consensus and advancing projects pragmatically, she now wants to put her experience, attentiveness and leadership at the service of the citizens of Saint-François. × I commit to voting for Jacqueline Belleau as member for the riding of Saint-François

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Mia Frechette

    Mia Frechette

    Vice-President of TransEstrie and a frontline social worker, Mia Fréchette sees the consequences of the crises hitting Quebec on a daily basis. She is particularly sensitive to the fate of the most vulnerable, who are the first victims of underfunded public services and the rising cost of living. Embodying a new generation involved in politics, Mia is running with Québec solidaire in order to fight for those who are being left behind.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.2 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geneviève Hébert Elected CAQ 17,280 42.4
Mélissa Généreux QS 11,491 28.2
Dany Bernier PCQ 4,483 11.0
Sylvie Tanguay PQ 3,712 9.1
Claude Charron QLP 3,220 7.9
Colleen McInerney Other 285 0.7
Olivier Dion Other 257 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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