Riding profile

Saint-François

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Saint-François: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Saint-François, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Geneviève Hébert

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Geneviève Hébert

    Geneviève Hébert

    An authentic Sherbrooke native, Geneviève Hébert was elected as the Member of Parliament for Saint-François in 2018 while her family has been established there for four generations. An engaged merchant, she owned Mère Poule boutique on King East Street for 14 years, specializing in breastfeeding and children's products.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Sylvie Tanguay

    Sylvie Tanguay

    A trained nurse, Sylvie has worked at the CIUSSS of Estrie-CHUS since 2003. With more than twenty years of experience in the health network, Sylvie was able to observe its challenges and issues.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
72%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 28.1%
  • PLQ 26.1%
  • CAQ 17.7%
  • QS 15.5%
  • PCQ 11.4%
  • Other 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ CAQ QS
HereSaint-François 28.1%26.1%17.7%15.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% −2.0 27.2% −1.1 20.3% −2.6 8.3% +7.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.2 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geneviève Hébert Elected CAQ 17,280 42.4 —
Mélissa Généreux QS 11,491 28.2 —
Dany Bernier PCQ 4,483 11.0 —
Sylvie Tanguay PQ 3,712 9.1 —
Claude Charron PLQ 3,220 7.9 —
Colleen McInerney Other 285 0.7 —
Olivier Dion Other 257 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026