Riding profile

Mégantic

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Mégantic: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mégantic, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 27% vote share, against 24% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

François Jacques

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    François Jacques

    François Jacques

    Elected as Member of Parliament for Mégantic in 2018 and later appointed Parliamentary Assistant to Municipal Affairs and Housing, François Jacques is co-owner of Centre Funéraire Jacques et fils. He also served as a municipal councillor in Lac-Mégantic and worked as an ambulance attendant.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 26.9%
  • CAQ 24.3%
  • PCQ 21.5%
  • PLQ 18.3%
  • QS 8.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereMégantic 26.9%24.3%21.5%18.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% −3.1 20.3% +4.0 13.2% +8.3 27.2% −8.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.1 pts
Turnout
70.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Jacques Elected CAQ 12,973 46.2 —
Mathieu Chenard PCQ 6,252 22.3 —
Marilyn Ouellet QS 3,592 12.8 —
André Duncan PQ 3,588 12.8 —
Eloïse Gagné PLQ 1,604 5.7 —
André Giguère Other 89 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026