Riding profile

Mégantic

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Mégantic: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
78%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 27.3%

    Debbie Fennety

  • PCQ 25.3%

    Jimmy Gagnon

  • CAQ 25.1%

    François Jacques incumbent

  • QLP 13.9%

    Sylvain Houle

  • QS 8.0%

    Marilyn Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PCQ CAQ QLP
HereMégantic 27.3%25.3%25.1%13.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% −0.6 16.1% +9.2 21.3% +3.8 23.4% −9.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mégantic, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

François Jacques

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    François Jacques

    François Jacques

    Elected as Member of Parliament for Mégantic in 2018 and later appointed Parliamentary Assistant to Municipal Affairs and Housing, François Jacques is co-owner of Centre Funéraire Jacques et fils. He also served as a municipal councillor in Lac-Mégantic and worked as an ambulance attendant.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Claude Jr Tremblay

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Jimmy Gagnon

    Jimmy Gagnon

    Born in Lac-Drolet and deeply rooted in his region, Jimmy Gagnon is an entrepreneur and father of four. After beginning work in the granite industry, he founded his own company at 22 and grew it until selling it in 2022. His career also led him to work in real estate, renovation, maple syrup production and wooded land, as well as to become involved in municipal affairs. Jimmy wishes to put his hands-on, entrepreneurial and management experience at the service of Mégantic residents. Committed to common sense, responsibility and closeness to citizens, he wants to defend the realities of families, municipalities and entrepreneurs in his region with determination.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Debbie Fennety

    Debbie Fennety

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sylvain Houle

    Sylvain Houle

    With nearly 40 years of experience in the field of social intervention and the helping relationship, Sylvain has devoted his career to supporting individuals and families during sometimes difficult times. Over the years, he notably worked at the Direction de la jeunesse, where he was called upon to intervene with young people, individuals, and families experiencing complex situations. His career also led him to work for three years within an Indigenous community on the Lower North Shore, an experience that enriched his understanding of the realities specific to the communities of the region. Today, he continues his professional commitment in private practice as part of helping relationship and family mediation services. Through all these experiences, Sylvain has always been committed to being present for people, listening to them, and supporting them with respect and kindness. × I commit to voting for Sylvain Houle as member of the National Assembly in the riding of Mégantic

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Marilyn Ouellet

    Marilyn Ouellet

    For 15 years, Marilyn Ouellet has worked in community and feminist settings, notably at Maison Jaune du Haut-Saint-François. A hands-on woman, former owner of an organic market garden and now president of a health solidarity cooperative, she perfectly understands the challenges related to the cost of living, the accessibility and quality of food, and health care in the regions. She is running again for Québec solidaire in Mégantic to defend a vision of society deeply rooted in the needs of her region.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.1 pts
Turnout
70.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Jacques Elected CAQ 12,973 46.2
Mathieu Chenard PCQ 6,252 22.3
Marilyn Ouellet QS 3,592 12.8
André Duncan PQ 3,588 12.8
Eloïse Gagné QLP 1,604 5.7
André Giguère Other 89 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026