Riding profile

Sherbrooke

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Sherbrooke: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
80%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.5%

    Gabriel Pallotta

  • QS 27.7%

    Stéphanie Vachon

  • CAQ 18.1%

    Fadéla Hamou

  • QLP 12.3%

    Pierre Cossette

  • PCQ 10.5%

    Jonathan Brault

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QS CAQ QLP
HereSherbrooke 30.5%27.7%18.1%12.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +2.6 9.6% +18.0 21.3% −3.2 23.4% −11.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sherbrooke, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for Québec solidaire, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Christine Labrie

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Fadéla Hamou

    Fadéla Hamou

    A professional with assertive leadership, Fadéla Hamou has extensive experience in collaborative work, governance, and board support. Deeply engaged in her community, she held several management positions at organizations dedicated to enhancing the community's presence.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-Michel Bérard

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Luc Lainé

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Léo Boivin

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Patrick Thouin

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Pierre-Luc Garon

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Jonathan Brault

    Jonathan Brault

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Gabriel Pallotta

    Gabriel Pallotta

    After coordinating Sherbrooke's homelessness table and chairing the Réseau Solidarité Itinérance du Québec for four years, Gabriel Pallotta is entering politics in Sherbrooke. He wants to serve his region and develop lasting solutions to homelessness, the Parti Québécois government's social priority. His work exposed inconsistencies in the CAQ government's negotiations with the federal government and strengthened his conviction that Quebec must decide for itself, protect its language and culture, and act according to its people's choices.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Pierre Cossette

    Pierre Cossette

    A physician, professor, and renowned administrator, Pierre Cossette has dedicated his career to advancing Quebec’s health care and higher education institutions. Renowned for his leadership, vision, and ability to lead major projects, he has held several executive positions throughout his career. As president of the University of Sherbrooke (UdeS) from 2017 to 2025, he contributed significantly to the institution’s development. Under his leadership, the University’s research revenue more than doubled, and nearly 500 research and innovation projects in partnership with the community have been launched. He made sustainable development a priority, which earned the University, in 2023, the highest score ever awarded worldwide for international STARS accreditation. He also implemented several measures related to equity, diversity, and inclusion. Former dean of the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences at UdeS, he played a key role in the comprehensive overhaul of the pre-doctoral medical program, the development of the first cooperative education program in nursing, significant growth in research, and the creation of clinical simulation laboratories. As a hospital administrator, he also contributed to the success of the CHUS–Hôtel-Dieu expansion project, and his dedication has earned him several major awards. Drawing on his career in medicine and management, Pierre Cossette hopes to put his experience to work for the citizens of Sherbrooke and contribute to the region’s development and the improvement of public services in Quebec.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Stéphanie Vachon

    Stéphanie Vachon

    An early-childhood educator and union representative in the childcare sector, Stéphanie Vachon has more than 25 years of professional and union involvement.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
6.7 pts
Turnout
70.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine Labrie Elected QS 15,548 41.9
Caroline St-Hilaire CAQ 13,076 35.3
Yves Bérubé-Lauzière PQ 3,373 9.1
Zoée St-Amand PCQ 2,501 6.7
François Vaes QLP 2,166 5.8
Victoria Karny Other 204 0.6
Raphaëlle Dompierre Other 113 0.3
Alain Barbier Other 69 0.2
Alexandre Asselin Other 48 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026