Riding profile
Orford
The question
Orford: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
QLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 79%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 48%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrford | 30.7% | 26.1% | 21.2% | 13.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +7.3 | 27.9% −1.8 | 21.3% −0.1 | 16.1% −2.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Orford, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gilles Bélanger
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Allison Turner
A renowned lawyer, Allison Turner has extensive experience in international law, human rights, and social justice. She holds a law degree from McGill University and a master's degree in international law from the Université de Montréal. She has notably served as a defence lawyer before the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. Her career has also led her to publish and speak at numerous international forums. A proud Quebecer and Canadian, Allison wishes to put her expertise and experience at the service of the citizens of Orford. Within the Coalition Avenir Québec, she wants to help bring Quebecers closer together, build bridges between communities, and vigorously defend Quebec's interests.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
David Cherniak
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Lucie Pinard
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Ngaire DeNora
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Benoît Robitaille
Benoît Robitaille holds a degree in management sciences from the Université du Québec à Montréal and devoted his career to public safety. He held management positions in access to information, personal-information protection and criminal-record checks for the protection of vulnerable people. His career enabled him to develop strong expertise in management and citizen security. Benoît wishes to represent Orford residents with rigour, proximity and determination. He wants to help better protect vulnerable people, improve the effectiveness of public institutions and ensure responsible management of state resources, while respecting taxpayers’ ability to pay.
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PQ Challenger
Jocelyn Caron
Writer of the Blue Book on Quebec independence and director of member services at the Conseil interprofessionnel du Québec, Jocelyn Caron places integrity and ethics at the centre of his commitments. He holds master's degrees in public administration from France's ÉNA and in political science, plus a political-science bachelor's from Université de Montréal. He wants to serve Orford and defend the Eastern Townships in a PQ government, fighting for residents, justice, and Quebec's freedom.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
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QS Challenger
Eve-Lyne Clusiault
Eve-Lyne Clusiault is a primary-care nurse practitioner, social entrepreneur and mother. With more than 15 years of experience serving diverse populations in Quebec and internationally, notably in First Nations communities, she has become convinced that health is built as much in our communities as in our clinics. Engaged in social entrepreneurship, she is recognized for her ability to bring people together, mobilize them and turn ideas into concrete projects. A Québec solidaire candidate in Orford, she wishes to advance deeply human politics, grounded in lived realities and focused on the common good.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilles Bélanger Elected | CAQ | 14,084 | 43.0 | — |
| Kenza Sassi | QS | 5,298 | 16.2 | — |
| Vicki-May Hamm | QLP | 4,917 | 15.0 | — |
| Monique Allard | PQ | 4,463 | 13.6 | — |
| Martin Lamontagne Lacasse | PCQ | 3,567 | 10.9 | — |
| Mark Gandey | Other | 354 | 1.1 | — |
| Joel Lacroix | Other | 109 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026