Riding profile

Orford

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Orford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

QLP

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 30.7%

    Charles Milliard

  • PQ 26.1%

    Jocelyn Caron

  • CAQ 21.2%

    Allison Turner

  • PCQ 13.8%

    Benoît Robitaille

  • QS 7.2%

    Eve-Lyne Clusiault

  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ CAQ PCQ
HereOrford 30.7%26.1%21.2%13.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +7.3 27.9% −1.8 21.3% −0.1 16.1% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Orford, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gilles Bélanger

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Allison Turner

    Allison Turner

    A renowned lawyer, Allison Turner has extensive experience in international law, human rights, and social justice. She holds a law degree from McGill University and a master's degree in international law from the Université de Montréal. She has notably served as a defence lawyer before the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. Her career has also led her to publish and speak at numerous international forums. A proud Quebecer and Canadian, Allison wishes to put her expertise and experience at the service of the citizens of Orford. Within the Coalition Avenir Québec, she wants to help bring Quebecers closer together, build bridges between communities, and vigorously defend Quebec's interests.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    David Cherniak

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Lucie Pinard

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Ngaire DeNora

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Benoît Robitaille

    Benoît Robitaille

    Benoît Robitaille holds a degree in management sciences from the Université du Québec à Montréal and devoted his career to public safety. He held management positions in access to information, personal-information protection and criminal-record checks for the protection of vulnerable people. His career enabled him to develop strong expertise in management and citizen security. Benoît wishes to represent Orford residents with rigour, proximity and determination. He wants to help better protect vulnerable people, improve the effectiveness of public institutions and ensure responsible management of state resources, while respecting taxpayers’ ability to pay.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jocelyn Caron

    Jocelyn Caron

    Writer of the Blue Book on Quebec independence and director of member services at the Conseil interprofessionnel du Québec, Jocelyn Caron places integrity and ethics at the centre of his commitments. He holds master's degrees in public administration from France's ÉNA and in political science, plus a political-science bachelor's from Université de Montréal. He wants to serve Orford and defend the Eastern Townships in a PQ government, fighting for residents, justice, and Quebec's freedom.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Charles Milliard

    Charles Milliard

    Leader of the Quebec Liberal Party

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Eve-Lyne Clusiault

    Eve-Lyne Clusiault

    Eve-Lyne Clusiault is a primary-care nurse practitioner, social entrepreneur and mother. With more than 15 years of experience serving diverse populations in Quebec and internationally, notably in First Nations communities, she has become convinced that health is built as much in our communities as in our clinics. Engaged in social entrepreneurship, she is recognized for her ability to bring people together, mobilize them and turn ideas into concrete projects. A Québec solidaire candidate in Orford, she wishes to advance deeply human politics, grounded in lived realities and focused on the common good.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.8 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gilles Bélanger Elected CAQ 14,084 43.0
Kenza Sassi QS 5,298 16.2
Vicki-May Hamm QLP 4,917 15.0
Monique Allard PQ 4,463 13.6
Martin Lamontagne Lacasse PCQ 3,567 10.9
Mark Gandey Other 354 1.1
Joel Lacroix Other 109 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026