Riding profile
Orford
The question
Orford: will Independent lose this seat to PLQ?
Editorial read
Orford, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 41% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gilles Bélanger
Sits with Independent
Current forecast
PLQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrford | 41.0% | 25.6% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +13.9 | 30.1% −4.5 | 20.3% −6.3 | 13.2% −2.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilles Bélanger Elected | CAQ | 14,084 | 43.0 | — |
| Kenza Sassi | QS | 5,298 | 16.2 | — |
| Vicki-May Hamm | PLQ | 4,917 | 15.0 | — |
| Monique Allard | PQ | 4,463 | 13.6 | — |
| Martin Lamontagne Lacasse | PCQ | 3,567 | 10.9 | — |
| Mark Gandey | Other | 354 | 1.1 | — |
| Joel Lacroix | Other | 109 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026