Riding profile

Beauce-Sud

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Beauce-Sud: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?

Editorial read

Beauce-Sud, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 51% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Samuel Poulin

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Samuel Poulin

    Samuel Poulin

    From a well-known entrepreneurial family in the Beauce, Samuel Poulin is 35 years old and holds the important positions of Minister of Municipal Affairs. He was also Deputy Minister for Economy and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Minister responsible for Youth.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Alvaro Peressutti

    Alvaro Peressutti

    source ↗

Current forecast

PCQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 51.4%
  • CAQ 29.7%
  • PQ 10.2%
  • PLQ 5.5%
  • QS 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ PLQ
HereBeauce-Sud 51.4%29.7%10.2%5.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 13.2% +38.2 20.3% +9.4 30.1% −19.9 27.2% −21.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
1.1 pts
Turnout
75.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Samuel Poulin Elected CAQ 16,615 44.5 —
Jonathan Poulin PCQ 16,187 43.4 —
Olivier Fecteau QS 1,623 4.3 —
Jean-François Major PQ 1,505 4.0 —
Antoine Poulin PLQ 1,057 2.8 —
Hans Mercier Other 306 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026