Riding profile
Beauce-Sud
The question
Beauce-Sud: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?
Current forecast
PCQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.3
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeauce-Sud | 49.1% | 28.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 16.1% +33.0 | 21.3% +7.6 | 27.9% −18.2 | 23.4% −14.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Beauce-Sud, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 49% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Samuel Poulin
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent 
Samuel Poulin
From a well-known entrepreneurial family in the Beauce, Samuel Poulin is 35 years old and holds the important positions of Minister of Municipal Affairs. He was also Deputy Minister for Economy and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Minister responsible for Youth.
source ↗ - PCQ Challenger
Me Jonathan Poulin
A lawyer by training, member of the Barreau du Québec, and senior advisor in legal affairs and compliance, Jonathan Poulin is the candidate of the Parti conservateur du Québec in Beauce-Sud. Having already run as a candidate in 2022, he has remained actively engaged in defending the interests of the region's citizens. He also serves as spokesperson on justice matters. Jonathan wants to offer families, workers, and entrepreneurs concrete solutions to improve their quality of life. He wants to reduce the tax and regulatory burden, improve access to healthcare, accelerate the construction of housing, and make the voice of Beauce heard at the Assemblée nationale.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Angèle Bouffard
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger 
Alvaro Peressutti
Alvaro Peressutti, who has lived in Quebec for 25 years, is a resident of Saint-Georges-de-Beauce and a father deeply involved in his community. Originally from Venezuela, he is convinced that Quebec is the best place to build his future. Alvaro completed his higher education in the greater Quebec City area. He first studied accounting at Cégep de Lévis-Lauzon, before going on to study management and consumer behavior at Laval University. An experienced manager, he has devoted more than twenty years of his career to sales development, commercial excellence, and team building within family-owned businesses and multinational corporations. In his role promoting Quebec’s expertise on the international stage, he has also developed a keen understanding of the issues surrounding the integration of newcomers and workforce challenges. One of his priorities is to strengthen local economic development by promoting innovation and Quebec talent, while helping local businesses expand their reach in international markets. He also intends to modernize public services so that Quebec can meet the needs of current and future generations. Guided by the principles of freedom, responsibility, and collective progress, Alvaro Peressutti hopes to put his experience to work for the citizens of Beauce-Sud and actively contribute to Quebec’s advancement.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger 
Amélie Carrier
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Poulin Elected | CAQ | 16,615 | 44.5 | — |
| Jonathan Poulin | PCQ | 16,187 | 43.4 | — |
| Olivier Fecteau | QS | 1,623 | 4.3 | — |
| Jean-François Major | PQ | 1,505 | 4.0 | — |
| Antoine Poulin | QLP | 1,057 | 2.8 | — |
| Hans Mercier | Other | 306 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026