Riding profile

Marie-Victorin

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Marie-Victorin: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 42.0%

    Nicolas Marceau

  • CAQ 17.5%

    Shirley Dorismond incumbent

  • QLP 16.1%

    Lyes Chekal

  • QS 13.2%

    Lauréline Manassero

  • PCQ 9.9%

    Amélie Legeay

  • Other 1.4%

    Michel Fortin Green Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP QS
HereMarie-Victorin 42.0%17.5%16.1%13.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +14.1 21.3% −3.8 23.4% −7.3 9.6% +3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Marie-Victorin, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 42% vote share, against 17% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shirley Dorismond

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Shirley Dorismond

    Shirley Dorismond

    Native of the Marie-Victorin riding, Shirley Dorismond has been a Member of the National Assembly since April 2022. A clinical nurse by training, she dedicated much of her career to improving care for the most vulnerable people and defending health workers, notably as vice-president of the Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé du Québec (FIQ).

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Michel Fortin

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Amélie Legeay

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Nicolas Marceau

    Nicolas Marceau

    Economist and professor at Université Laval from 1992 to 1996 and at UQAM since 1996, Nicolas Marceau combines academic rigour with ministerial experience. He represented Rousseau (2009–2018) and was finance and economy minister in Pauline Marois's government (2012–2014), later serving as official-opposition finance critic. He returns to restore credible fiscal balance while investing public funds strategically to support entrepreneurs and economic growth, after years of CAQ mismanagement.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Lyes Chekal

    Lyes Chekal

    After more than a decade as a Longueuil resident, Lyes Chekal is running for a second time to represent Marie-Victorin citizens under the Liberal banner. A 1996 graduate in financial sciences, he has strong administrative-management training, a UQAM bachelor's degree in communications (cultural hosting and research, 2018) and a first-cycle microprogram in community management and leadership from the Université de Sherbrooke's Longueuil campus. Since 2019 he has been director general of Ressources Saint-Jean-Vianney, which helps disadvantaged people and families in Longueuil's Saint-Jean-Vianney neighbourhood. Social justice, inclusion and support for vulnerable communities are central to his commitment. He received King Charles III's Coronation Medal for strengthening his community's social fabric and promoting intercultural sharing and respect. He wants to carry Marie-Victorin residents' voices to the National Assembly next fall.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Lauréline Manassero

    Lauréline Manassero

    Lauréline Manassero is a social entrepreneur and committed communicator who wishes to put her experience at the service of a more just and solidaire Quebec. An activist within Québec solidaire for over ten years, she believes that political action must stem from realities experienced on the ground. Founder of a communications agency dedicated to NPOs, she supports community and cultural organizations across Quebec. A first-generation immigrant, spouse, mother of three daughters, and an engaged figure in her community, she wants to mobilize her commitment and experience for the benefit of Marie-Victorin to improve people's daily lives.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
8.3 pts
Turnout
61.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shirley Dorismond Elected CAQ 9,212 33.1
Pierre Nantel PQ 6,913 24.9
Shophika Vaithyanathasarma QS 6,307 22.7
Lyes Chekal QLP 2,793 10.0
Lara Stillo PCQ 1,952 7.0
Vincent Aquin-Belleau Other 308 1.1
Martine Ouellet Other 260 0.9
Pierre Chénier Other 48 0.2
Florent Portron Other 27 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026