Riding profile

Marie-Victorin

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Marie-Victorin: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Marie-Victorin, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 46% vote share, against 19% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shirley Dorismond

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Shirley Dorismond

    Shirley Dorismond

    Native of the Marie-Victorin riding, Shirley Dorismond has been a Member of the National Assembly since April 2022. A clinical nurse by training, she dedicated much of her career to improving care for the most vulnerable people and defending health workers, notably as vice-president of the Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé du Québec (FIQ).

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Lyes Chekal

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 46.3%
  • PLQ 18.9%
  • CAQ 15.1%
  • QS 10.7%
  • PCQ 6.9%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ CAQ QS
HereMarie-Victorin 46.3%18.9%15.1%10.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +16.2 27.2% −8.3 20.3% −5.2 8.3% +2.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
8.3 pts
Turnout
61.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shirley Dorismond Elected CAQ 9,212 33.1 —
Pierre Nantel PQ 6,913 24.9 —
Shophika Vaithyanathasarma QS 6,307 22.7 —
Lyes Chekal PLQ 2,793 10.0 —
Lara Stillo PCQ 1,952 7.0 —
Vincent Aquin-Belleau Other 308 1.1 —
Martine Ouellet Other 260 0.9 —
Pierre Chénier Other 48 0.2 —
Florent Portron Other 27 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026