Riding profile
Marie-Victorin
The question
Marie-Victorin: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | QS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarie-Victorin | 42.0% | 17.5% | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +14.1 | 21.3% −3.8 | 23.4% −7.3 | 9.6% +3.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Marie-Victorin, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 42% vote share, against 17% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Shirley Dorismond
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent
Shirley Dorismond
Native of the Marie-Victorin riding, Shirley Dorismond has been a Member of the National Assembly since April 2022. A clinical nurse by training, she dedicated much of her career to improving care for the most vulnerable people and defending health workers, notably as vice-president of the Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé du Québec (FIQ).
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Michel Fortin
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Amélie Legeay
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Nicolas Marceau
Economist and professor at Université Laval from 1992 to 1996 and at UQAM since 1996, Nicolas Marceau combines academic rigour with ministerial experience. He represented Rousseau (2009–2018) and was finance and economy minister in Pauline Marois's government (2012–2014), later serving as official-opposition finance critic. He returns to restore credible fiscal balance while investing public funds strategically to support entrepreneurs and economic growth, after years of CAQ mismanagement.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Lyes Chekal
After more than a decade as a Longueuil resident, Lyes Chekal is running for a second time to represent Marie-Victorin citizens under the Liberal banner. A 1996 graduate in financial sciences, he has strong administrative-management training, a UQAM bachelor's degree in communications (cultural hosting and research, 2018) and a first-cycle microprogram in community management and leadership from the Université de Sherbrooke's Longueuil campus. Since 2019 he has been director general of Ressources Saint-Jean-Vianney, which helps disadvantaged people and families in Longueuil's Saint-Jean-Vianney neighbourhood. Social justice, inclusion and support for vulnerable communities are central to his commitment. He received King Charles III's Coronation Medal for strengthening his community's social fabric and promoting intercultural sharing and respect. He wants to carry Marie-Victorin residents' voices to the National Assembly next fall.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Lauréline Manassero
Lauréline Manassero is a social entrepreneur and committed communicator who wishes to put her experience at the service of a more just and solidaire Quebec. An activist within Québec solidaire for over ten years, she believes that political action must stem from realities experienced on the ground. Founder of a communications agency dedicated to NPOs, she supports community and cultural organizations across Quebec. A first-generation immigrant, spouse, mother of three daughters, and an engaged figure in her community, she wants to mobilize her commitment and experience for the benefit of Marie-Victorin to improve people's daily lives.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shirley Dorismond Elected | CAQ | 9,212 | 33.1 | — |
| Pierre Nantel | PQ | 6,913 | 24.9 | — |
| Shophika Vaithyanathasarma | QS | 6,307 | 22.7 | — |
| Lyes Chekal | QLP | 2,793 | 10.0 | — |
| Lara Stillo | PCQ | 1,952 | 7.0 | — |
| Vincent Aquin-Belleau | Other | 308 | 1.1 | — |
| Martine Ouellet | Other | 260 | 0.9 | — |
| Pierre Chénier | Other | 48 | 0.2 | — |
| Florent Portron | Other | 27 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026