Riding profile

Rosemont

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Rosemont: will Independent lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 38.5%

    Pierre-Luc Brillant

  • QS 27.5%

    Gisèle Pouhe Njall

  • QLP 21.0%

    David Lavoie

  • CAQ 5.9%

    Nour Aliyah Attié

  • PCQ 5.5%

    Mildred Mathieu

  • Other 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QS QLP CAQ
HereRosemont 38.5%27.5%21.0%5.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +10.6 9.6% +17.9 23.4% −2.4 21.3% −15.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rosemont, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 39% vote share, against 28% for Québec solidaire, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vincent Marissal

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Nour Aliyah Attié

    Nour Aliyah Attié

    Nour Aliyah Attié was born in Côte d'Ivoire and immigrated to Canada in 2007, at the age of four. She grew up and lives today in the riding of Rosemont.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Mildred Mathieu

    Mildred Mathieu

    Master's student in political science, Mildred chose to put her knowledge at the service of citizens and to get involved concretely in her community. Her engagement in the Montreal community allows her to listen to the realities faced by families, seniors, and the most vulnerable people.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Pierre-Luc Brillant

    Pierre-Luc Brillant

    Vice-president of the Union des artistes since 2023, Pierre-Luc is an artist deeply rooted in our identity. Known for his role in C.R.A.Z.Y. and in The Fireflies Are Gone, as well as for his discography, Pierre-Luc Brillant is deeply convinced that Quebec’s independence is essential to the continuity of our culture. He has always expressed his unconditional love for Quebec culture and firmly believes that it must be protected to ensure our nation a sustainable and prosperous future. Pierre-Luc is determined to continue his commitment to the people of Rosemont, as Montreal’s East End is too often neglected. “I am returning to a riding that is very dear to me, driven by the same conviction as in 2022, but with greater experience and renewed determination. Rosemont is an exceptional community, but it must remain accessible to those who live in it and make it thrive. The reconstruction of Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital remains our top priority. For the Parti Québécois, this project is of national importance, and the people of Rosemont and all of Montreal’s East End have waited long enough.”

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    David Lavoie

    David Lavoie

    With more than 25 years of experience in management, governance, and organizational development, David Lavoie has dedicated his career to advancing collaborative projects and strengthening institutions that contribute to Québec’s cultural, economic, and social vitality. Recognized for his ability to bring together partners from diverse backgrounds, he has always used his leadership to advance promising projects and serve the public interest. With a background in administration, management, and international relations, he has held executive positions at several major organizations. Notably, he served as director of the Festival TransAmériques, where he helped expand its international reach and promote the export of Quebec’s cultural offerings. As a co-founder of Théâtre Aux Écuries and the Festival du Jamais Lu, he has also played a key role in fostering the next generation of Montreal artists. Since 2025, he has served as executive director of the Les Arts et la Ville network, where he is leading the revitalization of this organization dedicated to the cultural development of municipalities in Quebec and the Canadian Francophonie. Deeply involved in the governance of public-interest organizations, David Lavoie has served as chair of the Caisse Desjardins de la Culture, Écoscéno, and the Conseil québécois du théâtre, in addition to serving on the boards of directors of several organizations, including Culture Montréal and the Partenariat du Quartier des spectacles. His career has earned him several honors, notably the HEC Montréal Cultural Management – Lifetime Achievement Award and the title of Knight of the Order of Arts and Letters of the French Republic. Convinced that Quebec’s future depends on education, culture, entrepreneurship, and civic engagement, David Lavoie now hopes to put his experience to work for the residents of Rosemont and help build a more inclusive, ambitious, and forward-looking society.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Gisèle Pouhe Njall

    Gisèle Pouhe Njall

    After studying journalism, Gisèle Pouhe Njall chose to become involved in the community sector, where she has worked for more than a decade. Whether working with youth organizations or leading an organization that fights sexual violence, she has always sought to mobilize communities and amplify voices too often forgotten. To broaden her field experience, Gisèle pursued university studies in community economic development. An engaged citizen living in Rosemont, she understands and shares the concerns of residents in her neighbourhood and wants to bring a unifying commitment to building a more caring Quebec, where everyone can contribute fully to society and live with dignity.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
14.6 pts
Turnout
68.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent Marissal Elected QS 13,311 37.6
Sandra O'Connor CAQ 8,157 23.1
Pierre-Luc Brillant PQ 7,527 21.3
Sherlyne Duverneau QLP 4,170 11.8
Marie-France Lemay PCQ 1,605 4.5
Jamie D'Souza Other 452 1.3
Jean-François Racine Other 158 0.5
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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