Riding profile

Anjou-Louis-Riel

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Anjou-Louis-Riel: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 44.9%

    Nicolas Plourde

  • PQ 22.4%

    Younès Dadoun

  • CAQ 12.5%

    Karine Boivin Roy incumbent

  • QS 9.7%

    Edissya Boukrif

  • PCQ 9.4%

    Helder da Costa Leitao

  • Other 1.0%

    Claude Gélinas Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ CAQ QS
HereAnjou-Louis-Riel 44.9%22.4%12.5%9.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +21.5 27.9% −5.5 21.3% −8.7 9.6% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Anjou-Louis-Riel, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 45% vote share, against 22% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karine Boivin Roy

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Karine Boivin Roy

    Karine Boivin Roy

    A trained lawyer, Karine stands out for her political engagement and passion for public service. Her 8 years of experience as a city councillor allowed her to sharpen her knowledge of the realities of current sector challenges.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Claude Gélinas

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Helder da Costa Leitao

    Helder da Costa Leitao

    Father of two young boys and engaged resident of the riding, Helder Da Costa Leitao holds a degree in business administration from TÉLUQ and has accumulated over twenty years of experience in human resources management and planning. Throughout his career, he worked both in the private sector and within public organizations, developing solid expertise in management, organization, and administration.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Younès Dadoun

    Younès Dadoun

    PhD candidate in administration at ENAP, Mr. Dadoun holds a master's degree in addiction intervention and in applied political studies from the University of Sherbrooke.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Nicolas Plourde

    Nicolas Plourde

    Nicolas Plourde grew up in Cartierville, in northern Montreal. He now lives with his partner, Ann-Marie, and is the father of three children. His parents, both teachers, instilled in him the importance of education, the French language, and active participation in Quebec society. These values became evident very early in his career. While studying law at the University of Montreal, Nicolas became secretary-general of the Federation of Student Associations of the University of Montreal Campus (FAÉCUM), and later president of the Quebec University Student Federation (FÉUQ). Deeply involved in the student movement, he advocated for access to higher education and brought students’ voices all the way to the National Assembly. A law graduate of the University of Montreal who was admitted to the Quebec Bar in 1993, Nicolas has built a practice in civil and commercial litigation. Throughout his career, he has assisted individuals and organizations facing disputes and complex situations. He is known for his thoroughness, sound judgment, and ability to bring parties together to find practical and lasting solutions. His career has led him to hold positions of significant responsibility within the legal profession. After serving as president of the Young Bar of Montreal, he became president of the Montreal Bar Association, and then president of the Quebec Bar Association in 2012. In these roles, he contributed to protecting the public, improving access to justice, and advancing the legal profession. In 2013, upon completing his term as President of the Quebec Bar Association, he co-founded the law firm Sarrazin Plourde, which he helped grow and which now employs about twenty professionals. This experience has given him practical knowledge of managing an organization, developing a team, and the responsibilities that come with being an employer. He subsequently continued his national-level involvement by serving as president of the Federation of Law Societies of Canada, which brings together the law societies responsible for regulating the legal profession across the country. Beyond his titles, a single concern has run through his career: making justice more accessible, more understandable, and closer to citizens. As a founding director of Justice Pro Bono, Nicolas also helped establish the Greater Montreal Community Justice Center and the Montreal Bar Association’s On-Call Lawyers Service. He is also an advocate for improved access to legal aid. His commitment goes far beyond the law. For nearly eight years, Nicolas served as president of the Fondation de l’Accueil Bonneau, an organization dedicated to supporting people who are experiencing homelessness or at risk of becoming homeless. He served for more than ten years on the board of directors of Special Olympics Québec, which promotes the inclusion of people with intellectual disabilities through sports, and then for six years on the board of Moulin Microcrédits, which helps skilled immigrants pursue their professional goals in Canada. These commitments reflect his dedication to dignity, inclusion, and the opportunity for everyone to take their rightful place in Quebec society. A member of the Quebec Liberal Party for more than ten years, Nicolas has served on the party’s National Executive Committee and acted as chief election officer during the two most recent leadership races—a role that requires impartiality, rigor, and adherence to the rules. Nicolas has always viewed political engagement as one of the most direct ways to bring about positive change. After serving in student, legal, and community circles, he believes the time has come to put his experience fully to work in public service. As the Quebec Liberal Party candidate in Anjou–Louis-Riel, he wants to reach out to citizens, understand their priorities, and work with them to advance the issues that affect their daily lives. He aims to offer them an attentive presence, a strong voice, and a genuine ability to bring people together and take action.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Edissya Boukrif

    Edissya Boukrif

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
5.0 pts
Turnout
63.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karine Boivin Roy Elected CAQ 9,376 35.6
Chantal Gagnon QLP 8,045 30.5
Laurence Pageau QS 3,893 14.8
Yastene Adda PQ 2,910 11.0
Genevieve Deneault PCQ 1,887 7.2
Claude Gélinas Other 203 0.8
Katy LeRougetel Other 49 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026