Riding profile

Pierre-Laporte

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Pierre-Laporte: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

QLP

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 31.3%

    David Bowles

  • CAQ 25.8%

    Mélanie Martin

  • PQ 20.5%

    Anne-Sophie Maguire Armand

  • PCQ 11.7%

    Mi Jie

  • QS 8.4%

    Claude Lefrançois

  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP CAQ PQ PCQ
HerePierre-Laporte 31.3%25.8%20.5%11.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +7.9 21.3% +4.5 27.9% −7.4 16.1% −4.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Pierre-Laporte, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Isabelle Poulet

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Mélanie Martin

    Mélanie Martin

    Mélanie Martin's commitment to youth is a long-term endeavor. Holding a bachelor's degree in education and a graduate diploma (DESS) in school administration, Mélanie Martin dedicated herself to music teaching for twenty years before becoming the deputy director at the Saint-Hyacinthe Centre de services scolaire.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Florent Portron

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Yahia Ghzala

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Mi Jie

    Mi Jie

    A graduate in political science, Mi Jie possesses solid experience in administration and SME management. Based in the Rive-Sud region, she has actively engaged in her community and developed a good understanding of the realities experienced by families, workers, and entrepreneurs in the region. Mi Jie wishes to represent the citizens of Pierre-Laporte with listening, pragmatism, and efficiency. She advocates for concrete solutions to facilitate access to property ownership, restore purchasing power to families, reduce bureaucratic burden, and improve access to health care. She believes that a strong economy and responsible state management are essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Anne-Sophie Maguire Armand

    Anne-Sophie Maguire Armand

    Over the past 20 years, Anne-Sophie has directed several educational institutions in the Montreal region. She has chosen politics today following a thorough reflection on the challenges our education network must meet.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    David Bowles

    David Bowles

    A leader in Quebec’s education sector, David Bowles has been dedicated to helping young people succeed for more than 25 years. A recognized manager, former municipal official, and father of four, he is deeply rooted in his community. He began his career as a high school teacher and has held leadership positions for over 20 years. He is currently the principal of Collège Charles-Lemoyne, a school with more than 3,200 students. Under his leadership, the school has become a model of educational innovation, inclusion, and academic success. More than 40% of the students there have an individualized education plan, yet the school boasts remarkable success rates. He also served as a city councilor in Saint-Lambert from 2013 to 2021. He holds a master’s degree in public administration from ENAP, a graduate diploma in educational leadership from McGill University, a certification in corporate governance, and a bachelor’s degree in education; he has completed training programs at Harvard University and in Finland on best practices in education. Author of the essay Reflections from a School Principal – Boosting Student Retention in Quebec , he regularly appears in the media to discuss education issues. A recipient of the 2021 Quebec Order of Excellence in Education, he has served on several boards of directors in the fields of education and community service. In particular, he helped establish the Longueuil Community Social Pediatrics Center. Today, David Bowles hopes to continue his commitment to his community as the Member of Parliament for Pierre-Laporte .

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Claude Lefrançois

    Claude Lefrançois

    A resident of Pierre-Laporte for three decades, Claude Lefrançois embodies a life marked by service, commitment and closeness to people. A career veterinarian, she created Vétérinaire à vélo, a unique North American initiative that allowed pets to be treated in their own environment, without stress. A longtime human-rights activist with Amnesty International, engaged with people with disabilities and co-founder of Ciné-club Outrepont, she has long worked for a more inclusive society and carries Québec solidaire’s core values.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
1.9 pts
Turnout
64.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Isabelle Poulet Elected CAQ 10,361 30.8
Mathieu Gratton QLP 9,707 28.8
Claude Lefrançois QS 5,968 17.7
Soledad Orihuela-Bouchard PQ 4,108 12.2
Evelyne Latreille PCQ 2,488 7.4
Jean-Philippe Charest Other 497 1.5
Herby Fremont Other 445 1.3
Ian Parent Other 113 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026