Riding profile

Rousseau

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Rousseau: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
38%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 34.0%

    Mathieu Lebrun

  • CAQ 27.5%

    Louis-Charles Thouin incumbent

  • PCQ 18.0%

    Marie-Ève Boucher

  • QLP 11.8%

    Sashmir Sidney

  • QS 7.8%

    Hind Rihani

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereRousseau 34.0%27.5%18.0%11.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +6.1 21.3% +6.3 16.1% +1.9 23.4% −11.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rousseau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Louis-Charles Thouin

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Louis-Charles Thouin

    Louis-Charles Thouin

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Rousseau in 2018, Louis-Charles Thouin was prefect of the MRC of Montcalm and president of the table of prefects of Lanaudière. He served as mayor of the municipality of Saint-Calixte from 2009 to 2017.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marie-Ève Boucher

    Marie-Ève Boucher

    Mother of three children and grandmother of two, Marie-Ève Boucher is a project manager and is pursuing part-time university studies in management. Her career in retail sales, transportation, construction, and project management has given her a concrete understanding of the realities faced by families, workers, and seniors. Marie-Ève wants to represent the citizens of Rousseau with listening, proximity, and determination. She advocates concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to homeownership, improve access to healthcare, reduce bureaucratic barriers, and better support seniors. She believes that responsible management of the State is essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Mathieu Lebrun

    Mathieu Lebrun

    Mathieu Lebrun holds a bachelor's degree in industrial relations from the Université de Montréal and a master's in law from the Université de Sherbrooke. Since 2021 he has been chief mediator-conciliator at the Ministry of Labour; previously he accumulated nine years as a mediator-conciliator in the public and private sectors and five earlier years as a mediator. He also worked in the Sûreté du Québec's Labour Relations Service from 2002 to 2012. He wants to put his expertise at the service of a collective project and a Quebec free to choose, proud of its language, culture, and history.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sashmir Sidney

    Sashmir Sidney

    Holder of an honours bachelor's degree in political studies from York University, a dual master's degree in public and international affairs from the same university, as well as a master's degree in international relations from Sciences Po Strasbourg, Sashmir has a rich and diverse background. Her experience at the Permanent Mission of Haiti to the United Nations in Geneva notably allowed her to develop a rigorous approach, but above all a deeply human one. She takes the time to listen, to understand each person's realities, and to seek solutions that concretely meet people's needs. These experiences have strengthened her conviction that politics must first serve people and communities. In the National Assembly, Sashmir will know how to carry the voice of the people of Rousseau, defend their priorities, and move forward the issues that truly matter to them. × I commit to voting for Sashmir Sidney as member of the National Assembly in the riding of Rousseau

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Hind Rihani

    Hind Rihani

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
32.7 pts
Turnout
61.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louis-Charles Thouin Elected CAQ 14,117 50.6
Pierre Vanier PQ 4,985 17.9
Gisèle Desroches PCQ 4,180 15.0
Ernesto Castro Roch QS 3,667 13.1
Estelle Regina Lokrou QLP 963 3.5
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026