Riding profile

Rousseau

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Rousseau: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rousseau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 38% vote share, against 32% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Louis-Charles Thouin

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Louis-Charles Thouin

    Louis-Charles Thouin

    Before being elected as the Member of Parliament for Rousseau in 2018, Louis-Charles Thouin was prefect of the MRC of Montcalm and president of the table of prefects of Lanaudière. He served as mayor of the municipality of Saint-Calixte from 2009 to 2017.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marie-Ève Boucher

    Marie-Ève Boucher

    Mother of three children and grandmother of two grandchildren, Marie-Ève is a family woman who understands the realities and daily challenges faced by parents and seniors. Her journey is marked by a deep desire to contribute positively to her community and to participate in building a Quebec where families can envision the future with confidence and serenity.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 38.1%
  • CAQ 32.3%
  • PCQ 13.9%
  • PLQ 8.7%
  • QS 5.8%
  • Other 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereRousseau 38.1%32.3%13.9%8.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +8.1 20.3% +12.0 13.2% +0.8 27.2% −18.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
32.7 pts
Turnout
61.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louis-Charles Thouin Elected CAQ 14,117 50.6 —
Pierre Vanier PQ 4,985 17.9 —
Gisèle Desroches PCQ 4,180 15.0 —
Ernesto Castro Roch QS 3,667 13.1 —
Estelle Regina Lokrou PLQ 963 3.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026