Riding profile

Les Plaines

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Les Plaines: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
60%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 31.6%

    Dieudonné Ella Oyono

  • CAQ 28.4%

    Fatou Diop

  • QLP 15.9%

    Agathe Owona

  • PCQ 15.3%

    Habib Diarra

  • QS 8.0%

    Irène Dubé

  • Other 0.8%

    Félix-Alexandre Bernier Démocratie directe

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereLes Plaines 31.6%28.4%15.9%15.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +3.7 21.3% +7.1 23.4% −7.5 16.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Les Plaines, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lucie Lecours

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Fatou Diop

    Fatou Diop

    Resident of the La Plaine sector for nine years, Fatou Diop is deeply rooted in her community. Recognized for her commitment to creating a more inclusive and united society, she has among other things set up the Cheta Foundation, which dedicates itself to supporting vulnerable populations, and co-founded the Black Community Grouping of Lanaudière.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Félix-Alexandre Bernier

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Habib Diarra

    Habib Diarra

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Dieudonné Ella Oyono

    Dieudonné Ella Oyono

    Holder of an advanced diploma in economics from Université Omar Bongo and having completed doctoral coursework at the Université du Québec à Montréal, Dieudonné Ella Oyono has been Montreal's Director of Economic Development since 2024. He held economic-development posts since 2016 and spent about ten years with the Quebec government, including as deputy director at the Ministry of Economy, Innovation and Exports and economist at the agriculture ministry. He is active in his community and was a laureate of Black History Month 2026. He wants Quebec to become a country able to negotiate its own international agreements.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Agathe Owona

    Agathe Owona

    An experienced social worker specialized in mental health, Agathe Owona is making the leap into provincial politics with the Quebec Liberal Party. An immigrant mother originally from Cameroon and a fully integrated Quebecer, she embodies a calm, thoughtful and rigorous leadership grounded in integrity, accountability and respect for human dignity. Reserved but determined, she prioritizes listening, consultation and the search for lasting solutions—qualities essential to the exercise of a public mandate in service of the common good. Driven by a deep sense of public service, she now wishes to put all her expertise at the service of the citizens of Les Plaines. Her international academic background—a master's degree in human sciences and a master's degree in international human rights law from Lyon, a master's degree in sociology from Cameroon and a bachelor's degree in social work from the Université de Montréal—gives her a solid understanding of public policy and governance mechanisms. At the CIUSSS de l'Est-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, she supports people living with mental health challenges and intervenes in complex situations requiring discernment, composure and leadership. Her experience with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees also enabled her to develop recognized expertise in legal analysis, the defense of fundamental rights and the management of particularly sensitive situations. A resident of Terrebonne, Ms. Owona sits on several boards of directors and is actively involved in the Réseau des femmes en Action, where she contributes to the promotion of women's leadership and the valuing of diversity. Mental health and access to social services are at the heart of her political commitment, as are the defense of fundamental rights and sound governance. Her migratory journey and her identity as a Black woman nurture a particular sensitivity to equity issues, but it is as a fully integrated Quebecer that she wishes to bring to the National Assembly a unifying, human voice deeply rooted in the field, at the service of all citizens of Les Plaines. × I commit to voting for Agathe Owona as member in the constituency of Les Plaines

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Irène Dubé

    Irène Dubé

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.3 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lucie Lecours Elected CAQ 13,922 50.5
Normand Ouellette PQ 4,444 16.1
Richard Jr Leblanc QS 3,668 13.3
Ian Lavallée PCQ 3,333 12.1
Elizabeth Stavrakakis QLP 1,895 6.9
Mohamed Benmoumene Other 282 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026