Riding profile

Vimont-Auteuil

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Vimont-Auteuil: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?

Editorial read

Vimont-Auteuil, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 64% vote share, against 18% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Valérie Schmaltz

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Valérie Schmaltz

    Valérie Schmaltz

    An action-oriented communications expert, Valérie is also distinguished by her keen analytical sense, great creativity, and interpersonal skills. Mother of three children and president of the Vimont Local Action Committee for the CAQ, Valérie aims to continue her commitment to the constituency's citizens as a Member of the National Assembly to serve as their voice within a CAQ government.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Amin Ouazragh-Marchand

    Amin Ouazragh-Marchand

    Amin is a young activist for the independence cause who recently obtained his law degree. He is now entering politics to serve the citizens and citizenesses of Laval, his hometown.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 64.0%
  • PQ 17.5%
  • PCQ 11.9%
  • QS 5.3%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PQ PCQ QS
HereVimont-Auteuil 64.0%17.5%11.9%5.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +36.8 30.1% −12.5 13.2% −1.2 8.3% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
4.4 pts
Turnout
70.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+42.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Valérie Schmaltz Elected CAQ 10,957 34.3 —
Anabela Monteiro PLQ 9,541 29.9 —
Stefano Piscitelli PCQ 4,118 12.9 —
Josée Bélanger QS 3,669 11.5 —
Nathalie Lavigne PQ 3,379 10.6 —
Rita Lo Cicero Other 301 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026