Riding profile

Terrebonne

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Terrebonne: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 39.8%

    Catherine Gentilcore incumbent

  • CAQ 24.9%

    Valérie Doyon

  • QLP 17.8%

    Ange Claude Bigilimana

  • PCQ 10.2%

    Marianne Poirier

  • QS 6.2%

    Ariane Drainville

  • Other 1.1%

    Benoit Beauchamp Climat Québec - Équipe Martine Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereTerrebonne 39.8%24.9%17.8%10.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +11.9 21.3% +3.7 23.4% −5.6 16.1% −6.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Terrebonne, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine Gentilcore

Sits with PQ

Since
2025-03-17
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Catherine Gentilcore

    Catherine Gentilcore

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Valérie Doyon

    Valérie Doyon

    Since 2021, Valérie Doyon has served as a municipal councillor and president of the municipal council of the City of Terrebonne. She is also president of the Board of Directors of the Lanaudière Elected Women's Network. With over 20 years of commitment to community service in both education and municipal governance, she holds a bachelor's degree in teaching for social and educational adaptation from the University of Sherbrooke and has a particular interest in issues related to education, health, and family.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Benoit Beauchamp

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marianne Poirier

    Marianne Poirier

    A resident of Terrebonne for more than ten years and mother of two children, Marianne has a career as human as it is atypical. Graduated in psychology and former plasterer, she developed an understanding of the realities lived by families, while cultivating a practical sense and great adaptability.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Ange Claude Bigilimana

    Ange Claude Bigilimana

    A resident of Terrebonne, Ange Claude Bigilimana joined the Quebec Liberal Party to seek the confidence of voters and represent the people of Terrebonne in the National Assembly. Married and father of three children, Mr. Bigilimana holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and is a member of the Ordre des ingénieurs du Québec. His education and professional background give him a thorough understanding of the infrastructure challenges facing Quebec. Ange Claude Bigilimana was previously involved with the Conservative Party of Quebec. He first ran as a candidate in the 2022 election, then in the Terrebonne constituency in the 2025 by-election. He also served as interim president of the party. Today, the Quebec Liberal Party led by Charles Milliard is the political formation that best matches his political convictions and is the best vehicle to carry forward his ideas. His involvement extends beyond his political engagement, as he is active in the school community, within the Ordre des ingénieurs, and on several boards of directors, including that of the Réseau-ÉTS of the École de technologie supérieure. These commitments reflect his desire to contribute to his community, an engagement he now wishes to pursue by representing the citizens of Terrebonne in the National Assembly. Among his main priorities are support for families, the improvement of public services, particularly in health, education, and transportation, the protection of individual rights and freedoms for all, and the responsible management of public finances. As a father of three children, he also believes it is essential that Quebec create more wealth in order to sustainably fund quality public services, both for seniors and for the generations that will ensure their continuity. × I commit to voting for Ange Claude Bigilimana as member for the Terrebonne constituency

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Ariane Drainville

    Ariane Drainville

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.6 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre Fitzgibbon Elected CAQ 20,911 49.4
Geneviève Couture PQ 7,986 18.9
Nadia Poirier QS 5,352 12.7
Lindsay Jean QLP 4,301 10.2
Daniela Andreeva PCQ 3,357 7.9
Nazar Tarpinian Other 308 0.7
Marie-France Meloche Other 80 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026