Riding profile

Bourassa-Sauvé

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Bourassa-Sauvé: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 51.8%

    Madwa-Nika Cadet incumbent

  • PQ 17.2%

    Edline Henri

  • PCQ 10.9%

    Ismaila Marega

  • QS 9.9%

    Mara Hermione Pierre

  • CAQ 8.4%

    Isabelle Lamy

  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ PCQ QS
HereBourassa-Sauvé 51.8%17.2%10.9%9.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +28.3 27.9% −10.7 16.1% −5.2 9.6% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bourassa-Sauvé, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 52% vote share, against 17% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Madwa-Nika Cadet

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Madwa-Nika Cadet

    Madwa-Nika Cadet

    Madwa-Nika Cadet has represented the riding of Bourassa-Sauvé in the Quebec National Assembly since October 2022. As part of this mandate, she held the position of Vice-Chair of the Commission des finances publiques and was the Quebec Liberal Party's spokesperson for education, culture and communications, the French language, employment, labor and the fight against racism. A member of the Quebec Bar and an accredited mediator, she holds a bachelor's degree in law and a master's degree in business administration from the Université de Sherbrooke, as well as a master's degree in public policy from Georgetown University. Madwa-Nika Cadet's professional career has included working as a policy advisor in the office of Canada's Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, practicing corporate and commercial law in the Montreal office of multinational law firm 大成Dentons, and acting as a legal analyst with the World Bank Group. Strongly committed to the community, she has served on the boards of the Fondation des Offices jeunesse internationaux du Québec and Centraide of Greater Montreal, and is co-founder of the Centre culturel afro-canadien de Montréal. Throughout her career, Madwa-Nika Cadet has been recognized many times for her excellence and commitment, including as a laureate of Black History Month in Quebec and, more recently, as a recipient of the King Charles III Coronation Medal. She lives in the Bourassa-Sauvé riding with her husband and two young children.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Isabelle Lamy

    Isabelle Lamy

    Born in Montréal-Nord, I grew up and lived there for over thirty years, deeply shaped by the human richness and diversity of this neighbourhood. My years abroad and my many travels broadened my worldview, nurtured my curiosity, and strengthened my ability to understand varied realities. My atypical career path has allowed me to acquire skills that I have been able to transfer from one job to another, with great adaptability and a strong sense of responsibility. My childhood, my values, and my life as a single mother shaped me and turned me toward the community, attentive to the needs of others. Among my professional experiences, my role as a political attaché has been the most rewarding. It allowed me to work at the heart of issues that directly affect citizens, to listen, to understand, and to contribute to concrete solutions. This experience confirmed my desire to invest in projects that bring people together, that improve people's lives, and that give deep meaning to my commitment.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Ismaila Marega

    Ismaila Marega

    Ismaila chose Quebec as his adopted homeland about fifteen years ago, attracted by the values of freedom, opportunity, and solidarity that characterize our society. Since his arrival, he has multiplied opportunities to learn and integrate, pursuing studies at the Université du Québec à Rimouski, the University of Montreal, and Collège LaSalle.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Edline Henri

    Edline Henri

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Mara Hermione Pierre

    Mara Hermione Pierre

    Mara Hermione Pierre wants to represent Bourassa-Sauvé residents with authenticity and determination. After arriving in Canada at 19, she settled in Montréal-Nord and became deeply rooted in her community. Trained in accounting and management, she is recognized for leadership and commitment, earning a community distinction in 2024. Active with young people, she advocates a fairer, more inclusive, and solidaristic Quebec where families, seniors, youth, and newcomers can thrive.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
15.1 pts
Turnout
53.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Madwa-Nika Cadet Elected QLP 9,704 40.1
Absa Diallo CAQ 6,049 25.0
Ricardo Gustave QS 3,737 15.4
Carmel-Antoine Bessard PCQ 2,161 8.9
Zacharie Robitaille PQ 2,101 8.7
Omar Ahmed Other 266 1.1
Smaille Toussaint Other 94 0.4
Shawn Lalande McLean Other 70 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026