Riding profile

Mille-Îles

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Mille-Îles: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 46.4%

    Virginie Dufour incumbent

  • PQ 22.3%

    Mathieu Trottier-Kavanagh

  • PCQ 11.7%

    Nare Stepanyan

  • CAQ 10.4%

    Sonia Amédomé

  • QS 7.9%

    Zachary Robert

  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ PCQ CAQ
HereMille-Îles 46.4%22.3%11.7%10.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +23.0 27.9% −5.6 16.1% −4.4 21.3% −10.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mille-Îles, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 22% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Virginie Dufour

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Virginie Dufour

    Virginie Dufour

    Deeply rooted in eastern Laval, where she spent part of her youth, a Laval resident for over 20 years and the mother of two teenage daughters, Virginie Dufour is seeking a second term as MNA for Mille-Îles in the October 5, 2026 general election. Her commitment to politics began with the Quebec she wanted to leave to her daughters. First elected on October 3, 2022 under the banner of the Quebec Liberal Party, she is now the voice of the districts of Duvernay, Duvernay-Est, Val-des-Brises, Val-des-Arbres, Saint-François and Saint-Vincent-de-Paul at the National Assembly. With an MBA in Information Technology Management from Université Laval, Virginie Dufour began her career ten years ago managing IT projects, both in Quebec and abroad. A stay of several years in Chile enabled her to learn Spanish, which she now speaks fluently. Her public involvement began with Ville de Laval. Elected city councillor for the Sainte-Rose district in 2013, she sits on the executive committee of Quebec's 3rd largest city, overseeing issues relating to the environment, urban planning, information technology and the status of women. Founding president of the advisory committee on the environment, she is at the heart of Laval's green shift: the protection of most of the natural environments on Île Jésus, including the three Grandes Îles, and the acquisition of two of them by the city. These actions have earned her the title of Municipal Climate Champion from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities in 2019. Beyond her role on the city council, she is committed to the economic and professional development of her region. She chairs the board of the Centre local de développement de Laval, sits on the boards of Montréal International, Laval Technopole and the Tricentris sorting center, and in 2021 becomes the first woman to chair the Association québécoise d'urbanisme. At the National Assembly, Virginie Dufour represents the Liberals in environment, housing and municipal affairs. She is responsible for the Lanaudière and Laurentides regions, sits on the Office of the National Assembly and represents Quebec at the Assemblée parlementaire de la Francophonie. She is the only Canadian elected representative to have joined the Interparliamentary Coalition to Stop Plastic Pollution. Her duties have also taken her on missions to Senegal, Laos and Paris. On a daily basis in Mille-Îles, Virginie Dufour cultivates close ties with the citizens and organizations of her riding. Meals on Wheels, schools, sports clubs, health, culture and food safety organizations. Renowned for her tenacity, she keeps to the same thread: ensuring that Mille-Îles and all of Laval receive public funding commensurate with their population, economic development and vitality. Outside of public life, Virginie Dufour is an avid cyclist, gardener and alpine ski tourer. Her two dogs, Molly and Tigua, play an important role in her daily life.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Sonia Amédomé

    Sonia Amédomé

    Serving the health network for 8 years, Sonia Amedome is a risk and quality of care and social services management consultant. Driven by the will to improve public services, she dedicates her career to developing concrete solutions that meet citizens' needs.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Nare Stepanyan

    Nare Stepanyan

    A student in humanities at Montmorency College, Nare Stepanyan has been interested for several years in issues affecting Quebec's future. Her participation in the 2026 Student Forum, a parliamentary simulation bringing together young people from across Quebec, strengthened her conviction that the new generation must play a more important role in the decisions that will shape the future of the province. Deeply attached to the Mille-Îles constituency, Nare wishes to represent citizens with proximity, listening and seriousness. She advocates for concrete solutions to improve access to homeownership, reduce the cost of living, foster a more dynamic economy and improve access to healthcare. Her commitment is based on a vision of a more prosperous Quebec, driven by responsible government management and policies focused on the needs of families.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Mathieu Trottier-Kavanagh

    Mathieu Trottier-Kavanagh

    A cultural entrepreneur, producer, director, author, and speaker, Mathieu Trottier-Kavanagh has worked for more than 20 years in film, audiovisual production, events, and the stage. He has developed creative leadership, organizational rigour, and the ability to complete complex projects, many of which reached national and international audiences. He has devoted important work to historical memory and Quebec culture. The Mille-Îles candidate sees culture as essential to collective identity and social cohesion and wants to put his political experience at the service of the community.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Zachary Robert

    Zachary Robert

    A substitute teacher and former 2022 candidate, Zachary Robert wants to strengthen public services and promote a just ecological transition.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
1.5 pts
Turnout
66.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Virginie Dufour Elected QLP 9,522 32.4
Julie Séide CAQ 9,097 30.9
Guillaume Lajoie QS 3,789 12.9
Michel Lachance PQ 3,551 12.1
Ange Claude Bigilimana PCQ 3,105 10.6
Bianca Jitaru Other 346 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026