Riding profile
Laval-des-Rapides
The question
Laval-des-Rapides: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLaval-des-Rapides | 43.1% | 24.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +19.7 | 27.9% −3.6 | 21.3% −10.7 | 16.1% −5.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Laval-des-Rapides, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 43% vote share, against 24% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Céline Haytayan
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger
Vincent Bolduc
Vincent has been involved with the Coalition Avenir Québec since its beginnings. His involvement with the party has taken place at various levels, first in his riding of Laval-des-Rapides, where he has lived for 20 years, and then within government as a political adviser in a ministerial office. Completing a master’s degree in applied ethics, he now wishes to bring his experience and contribution to the service of the citizens of Laval-des-Rapides and defend the values of Quebecers.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Shawn Lalande McLean
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Ronny Niro
Cybersecurity and information technology expert, Ronny is a long-time resident of Laval. Throughout his career, he has developed a solid understanding of the challenges related to digital transformation and the efficient management of organizations.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Fatima Aboubakr
Fatima left Morocco with her family in 2005. Since then, she has worked as a qualified early childhood educator before offering her management expertise to several childcare facilities.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Caroline De Guire
An economist by training and a recognized manager, Caroline De Guire has more than 25 years of experience in economic development, entrepreneurship, innovation, and business community representation. Holder of a master's degree in economics from the Université de Montréal, she has devoted her career to bringing businesses, institutions, and community partners together around projects that contribute to the growth and development of communities. Since 2020, she has led the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Laval, one of the largest chambers of commerce in Quebec. Under her leadership, the organization has strengthened its role as a key player in regional economic development, advancing several files related in particular to productivity, sustainable development, local purchasing, business succession, francisation, and innovation. Recognized for her ability to mobilize, build bridges, and turn ideas into concrete actions, Caroline De Guire has worked closely with entrepreneurs, public institutions, municipal elected officials, and community organizations to find solutions to the region's economic and social challenges. Her career reflects a constant desire to bring community stakeholders together around common objectives. A hands-on leader deeply attached to the development of Laval, she now wishes to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Laval-des-Rapides. Convinced that economic prosperity is essential to improving Quebecers' quality of life and strengthening our public services, Caroline De Guire wishes to contribute to building a more effective, more ambitious, and more humane Quebec. × I commit to voting for Caroline De Guire as Member of the National Assembly in the riding of Laval-des-Rapides
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Sabrina Di Matteo
A doctoral student in religious studies and Laval community advocate, Sabrina Di Matteo supports affordable housing, active mobility and reducing inequality.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Céline Haytayan Elected | CAQ | 10,599 | 31.9 | — |
| Saul Polo | QLP | 9,546 | 28.7 | — |
| Josée Chevalier | QS | 5,542 | 16.7 | — |
| Andréanne Fiola | PQ | 4,293 | 12.9 | — |
| Nicolas Lussier-Clément | PCQ | 2,852 | 8.6 | — |
| Zied Damergi | Other | 398 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026