Riding profile

Laval-des-Rapides

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Laval-des-Rapides: will CAQ lose this seat to PLQ?

Editorial read

Laval-des-Rapides, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 58% vote share, against 20% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Céline Haytayan

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PCQ Challenger
    Ronny Niro

    Ronny Niro

    Cybersecurity and information technology expert, Ronny is a long-time resident of Laval. Throughout his career, he has developed a solid understanding of the challenges related to digital transformation and the efficient management of organizations.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger

    Caroline De Guire

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Fatima Aboubakr

    Fatima Aboubakr

    Fatima left Morocco with her family in 2005. Since then, she has worked as a qualified early childhood educator before offering her management expertise to several childcare facilities.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 58.5%
  • PQ 20.0%
  • QS 12.1%
  • PCQ 8.1%
  • Other 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PQ QS PCQ
HereLaval-des-Rapides 58.5%20.0%12.1%8.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +31.3 30.1% −10.1 8.3% +3.8 13.2% −5.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
3.5 pts
Turnout
61.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+35.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Céline Haytayan Elected CAQ 10,599 31.9 —
Saul Polo PLQ 9,546 28.7 —
Josée Chevalier QS 5,542 16.7 —
Andréanne Fiola PQ 4,293 12.9 —
Nicolas Lussier-Clément PCQ 2,852 8.6 —
Zied Damergi Other 398 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026