Riding profile

Laval-des-Rapides

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Laval-des-Rapides: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 43.1%

    Caroline De Guire

  • PQ 24.3%

    Fatima Aboubakr

  • CAQ 10.6%

    Vincent Bolduc

  • PCQ 10.4%

    Ronny Niro

  • QS 10.3%

    Sabrina Di Matteo

  • Other 1.3%

    Shawn Lalande McLean Parti accès propriété et équité - Équipe Québec debout

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ CAQ PCQ
HereLaval-des-Rapides 43.1%24.3%10.6%10.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +19.7 27.9% −3.6 21.3% −10.7 16.1% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laval-des-Rapides, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 43% vote share, against 24% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Céline Haytayan

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Vincent Bolduc

    Vincent Bolduc

    Vincent has been involved with the Coalition Avenir Québec since its beginnings. His involvement with the party has taken place at various levels, first in his riding of Laval-des-Rapides, where he has lived for 20 years, and then within government as a political adviser in a ministerial office. Completing a master’s degree in applied ethics, he now wishes to bring his experience and contribution to the service of the citizens of Laval-des-Rapides and defend the values of Quebecers.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Shawn Lalande McLean

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Ronny Niro

    Ronny Niro

    Cybersecurity and information technology expert, Ronny is a long-time resident of Laval. Throughout his career, he has developed a solid understanding of the challenges related to digital transformation and the efficient management of organizations.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Fatima Aboubakr

    Fatima Aboubakr

    Fatima left Morocco with her family in 2005. Since then, she has worked as a qualified early childhood educator before offering her management expertise to several childcare facilities.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Caroline De Guire

    Caroline De Guire

    An economist by training and a recognized manager, Caroline De Guire has more than 25 years of experience in economic development, entrepreneurship, innovation, and business community representation. Holder of a master's degree in economics from the Université de Montréal, she has devoted her career to bringing businesses, institutions, and community partners together around projects that contribute to the growth and development of communities. Since 2020, she has led the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie de Laval, one of the largest chambers of commerce in Quebec. Under her leadership, the organization has strengthened its role as a key player in regional economic development, advancing several files related in particular to productivity, sustainable development, local purchasing, business succession, francisation, and innovation. Recognized for her ability to mobilize, build bridges, and turn ideas into concrete actions, Caroline De Guire has worked closely with entrepreneurs, public institutions, municipal elected officials, and community organizations to find solutions to the region's economic and social challenges. Her career reflects a constant desire to bring community stakeholders together around common objectives. A hands-on leader deeply attached to the development of Laval, she now wishes to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Laval-des-Rapides. Convinced that economic prosperity is essential to improving Quebecers' quality of life and strengthening our public services, Caroline De Guire wishes to contribute to building a more effective, more ambitious, and more humane Quebec. × I commit to voting for Caroline De Guire as Member of the National Assembly in the riding of Laval-des-Rapides

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Sabrina Di Matteo

    Sabrina Di Matteo

    A doctoral student in religious studies and Laval community advocate, Sabrina Di Matteo supports affordable housing, active mobility and reducing inequality.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
3.5 pts
Turnout
61.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Céline Haytayan Elected CAQ 10,599 31.9
Saul Polo QLP 9,546 28.7
Josée Chevalier QS 5,542 16.7
Andréanne Fiola PQ 4,293 12.9
Nicolas Lussier-Clément PCQ 2,852 8.6
Zied Damergi Other 398 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026