Riding profile

Saint-Laurent

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Saint-Laurent: will Independent lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 54.3%

    Valérie Assouline

  • PCQ 16.3%

    Barry Rolbin

  • PQ 9.6%

    Pierre-Étienne Nantel

  • CAQ 9.0%

    Tahmina Kabir

  • Other 6.1%
  • QS 4.8%

    Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ PQ CAQ
HereSaint-Laurent 54.3%16.3%9.6%9.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +30.9 16.1% +0.2 27.9% −18.3 21.3% −12.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Laurent, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 54% vote share, against 16% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marwah Rizqy

Sits with Independent

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Tahmina Kabir

    Tahmina Kabir

    Tahmina Kabir came to Quebec as a skilled immigrant in 2006. She has been serving citizens since her arrival: social worker, community worker, ambassador (francization). She has volunteered at a daycare (board advisor), at a primary school (school board advisor), and with community networks and organizations (interpretation: Bengali, French, and English). She is dedicated to solving problems: housing, homelessness, poverty, urban safety. Tahmina believes in deep positive change to improve the quality of life of the population.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Audrey Baillairgé

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Joe Young

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Barry Rolbin

    Barry Rolbin

    Barry is a resident of Saint-Laurent who chose to engage in politics out of a desire to contribute concretely to the well-being of his community. Convincing himself that citizens deserve to be heard and represented with integrity, he wishes to put his energy at the service of families, workers, and all those who want to see their quality of life improve.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Pierre-Étienne Nantel

    Pierre-Étienne Nantel

    A history teacher for over fifteen years in a metropolitan school, our candidate knows well the issues and challenges of our education system. His first contact with Saint-Laurent dates back to his adolescence when he worked for the City.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Valérie Assouline

    Valérie Assouline

    It is in Saint-Laurent that Me Valérie Assouline grew up, built her practice, and chose to continue her career. A lawyer for nearly 30 years, she has devoted a large part of her career to the defence of families and children. A graduate in law from the Université de Montréal, she also holds a degree in sociology and pursued studies in management at HEC Montréal. In 2007, she founded in Saint-Laurent SOS Avocats, a firm dedicated notably to the defence of families and children. Her practice has led her to intervene in complex cases involving youth protection and to become a recognized voice in the public sphere on children's rights, youth protection, and conjugal violence. Her commitment to the legal profession led her to become first councillor, then bâtonnière of the Barreau de Montréal for the year 2025-2026. She placed her bâtonnat under the theme of "Kindness at the heart of justice," with the intention of promoting a more humane, more accessible justice system that listens to citizens. She also has solid experience in local politics. For nine years, she has served as a municipal councillor in Dollard-des-Ormeaux, where she works directly with citizens on issues affecting their daily lives. × I commit to voting for Valérie Assouline as deputy in the constituency of Saint-Laurent

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
35.7 pts
Turnout
51.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marwah Rizqy Elected QLP 14,304 50.0
Mélanie Gauthier CAQ 4,091 14.3
Catherine St-Clair PCQ 3,973 13.9
Gérard Briand QS 2,840 9.9
Karl Dugal PQ 1,696 5.9
Rizwan Muhammad Rajput Other 752 2.6
Myrtis-Eirene Fossey Other 533 1.9
Othmane Benzekri Other 439 1.5
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026