Riding profile
Saint-Laurent
The question
Saint-Laurent: will Independent lose this seat to QLP?
Current forecast
QLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 38.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| QLP | PCQ | PQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint-Laurent | 54.3% | 16.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 23.4% +30.9 | 16.1% +0.2 | 27.9% −18.3 | 21.3% −12.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint-Laurent, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 54% vote share, against 16% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marwah Rizqy
Sits with Independent
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Tahmina Kabir
Tahmina Kabir came to Quebec as a skilled immigrant in 2006. She has been serving citizens since her arrival: social worker, community worker, ambassador (francization). She has volunteered at a daycare (board advisor), at a primary school (school board advisor), and with community networks and organizations (interpretation: Bengali, French, and English). She is dedicated to solving problems: housing, homelessness, poverty, urban safety. Tahmina believes in deep positive change to improve the quality of life of the population.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Audrey Baillairgé
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Joe Young
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Barry Rolbin
Barry is a resident of Saint-Laurent who chose to engage in politics out of a desire to contribute concretely to the well-being of his community. Convincing himself that citizens deserve to be heard and represented with integrity, he wishes to put his energy at the service of families, workers, and all those who want to see their quality of life improve.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Pierre-Étienne Nantel
A history teacher for over fifteen years in a metropolitan school, our candidate knows well the issues and challenges of our education system. His first contact with Saint-Laurent dates back to his adolescence when he worked for the City.
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QLP Challenger
Valérie Assouline
It is in Saint-Laurent that Me Valérie Assouline grew up, built her practice, and chose to continue her career. A lawyer for nearly 30 years, she has devoted a large part of her career to the defence of families and children. A graduate in law from the Université de Montréal, she also holds a degree in sociology and pursued studies in management at HEC Montréal. In 2007, she founded in Saint-Laurent SOS Avocats, a firm dedicated notably to the defence of families and children. Her practice has led her to intervene in complex cases involving youth protection and to become a recognized voice in the public sphere on children's rights, youth protection, and conjugal violence. Her commitment to the legal profession led her to become first councillor, then bâtonnière of the Barreau de Montréal for the year 2025-2026. She placed her bâtonnat under the theme of "Kindness at the heart of justice," with the intention of promoting a more humane, more accessible justice system that listens to citizens. She also has solid experience in local politics. For nine years, she has served as a municipal councillor in Dollard-des-Ormeaux, where she works directly with citizens on issues affecting their daily lives. × I commit to voting for Valérie Assouline as deputy in the constituency of Saint-Laurent
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marwah Rizqy Elected | QLP | 14,304 | 50.0 | — |
| Mélanie Gauthier | CAQ | 4,091 | 14.3 | — |
| Catherine St-Clair | PCQ | 3,973 | 13.9 | — |
| Gérard Briand | QS | 2,840 | 9.9 | — |
| Karl Dugal | PQ | 1,696 | 5.9 | — |
| Rizwan Muhammad Rajput | Other | 752 | 2.6 | — |
| Myrtis-Eirene Fossey | Other | 533 | 1.9 | — |
| Othmane Benzekri | Other | 439 | 1.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026