Riding profile

Robert-Baldwin

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Robert-Baldwin: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Editorial read

Robert-Baldwin, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 66% vote share, against 16% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brigitte Garceau

Sits with PLQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Incumbent
    Brigitte Garceau

    Brigitte Garceau

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Axel Lellouche

    Axel Lellouche

    Born in France, in the Paris region, Axel moved to Quebec in 1997. He completed his bachelor's degree in biology with a specialization in biotechnology in 2000.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PLQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PLQ 65.9%
  • PCQ 15.6%
  • Other 10.1%
  • CAQ 5.1%
  • QS 1.7%
  • PQ 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PLQ PCQ Other CAQ
HereRobert-Baldwin 65.9%15.6%10.1%5.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.2% +38.7 13.2% +2.5 2.0% +8.1 20.3% −15.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PLQ
Margin
41.7 pts
Turnout
55.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brigitte Garceau Elected PLQ 17,228 57.8 —
Axel Lellouche PCQ 4,779 16.0 —
Maïté Beaudoin CAQ 2,909 9.8 —
Marieve Ruel QS 1,498 5.0 —
Jonathan Gray Other 1,231 4.1 —
Qaiser Choudhry Other 792 2.7 —
Alix Martel PQ 776 2.6 —
David MacFarquhar Other 614 2.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026