Riding profile

Robert-Baldwin

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Robert-Baldwin: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 59.6%

    Brigitte Garceau incumbent

  • PCQ 19.5%

    Axel Lellouche

  • Other 9.1%

    Paul Henry Danylewich Canadian Party of Québec

  • CAQ 8.8%

    Sophie Leroux

  • PQ 2.4%

    Maurice Daude

  • QS 0.6%

    Alexandra Lacoste

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ Other CAQ
HereRobert-Baldwin 59.6%19.5%9.1%8.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +36.2 16.1% +3.4 1.7% +7.5 21.3% −12.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Robert-Baldwin, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 60% vote share, against 19% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brigitte Garceau

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Brigitte Garceau

    Brigitte Garceau

    Brigitte B. Garceau is a seasoned lawyer, a deeply committed woman and, since October 3, 2022, Member of Parliament for Robert-Baldwin. Holder of a Bachelor of Arts from Carleton University (1986), she went on to study law, obtaining a degree in Common Law from the University of Ottawa (1990) and a Bachelor of Civil Law from the Université de Montréal (1991). A member of the Quebec Bar since 1992, she practices mainly in family law with Robinson Sheppard Shapiro, where she distinguishes herself through her expertise and human approach. Her professional excellence has been recognized nationally, notably by Best Lawyers, which ranked her among the top family law experts in Canada from 2019 to 2023. In 2022, she was awarded the prestigious title of "Advocatus Emeritus" by the Quebec Bar, in recognition of her overall contribution to the profession. She is also a member of the International Academy of Family Lawyers. Alongside her legal career, Ms. Garceau is actively involved in her community. She chaired the Board of Directors of the West Island Women's Shelter from 2020 to 2022, and contributed to the activities of the Centre and Résidence Bienvenue. In 2020, her philanthropic commitment earned her recognition as one of ten outstanding businesswomen philanthropists by the West Island Community Shares organization. At the National Assembly, she held a number of key positions, including Vice-Chair of the Committee on Institutions and Official Opposition Spokesperson on the Status of Women and Youth Protection and on the Laurent Report.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Sophie Leroux

    Sophie Leroux

    A communications and project-management professional with more than 25 years of experience, Sophie Leroux has led IT projects and marketing agreements in various industries while developing strong expertise in organizational management. A member of the Coalition avenir Québec since its founding in 2012 and a committed volunteer, she contributes to the Montreal community and to various philanthropic and political initiatives, putting her leadership and sense of commitment to work.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Paul Henry Danylewich

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Axel Lellouche

    Axel Lellouche

    Born in France, in the Paris region, Axel moved to Quebec in 1997. He completed his bachelor's degree in biology with a specialization in biotechnology in 2000.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Maurice Daude

    Maurice Daude

    A flight simulator engineer, Maurice is entering politics with a desire to leave a free and prosperous Quebec to future generations. But beyond this ideal, it is also a wish to serve the citizens of Robert-Baldwin. According to him, the time has come for Quebec to fully assert its identity as a people. He is convinced that we possess all the necessary resources, both human and economic, to take our future in hand and build a more just and sustainable society. "Can one be a technical expert and a political actor? I believed for a long time that it was impossible. By thinking about ways to restore to Quebec the confidence necessary to achieve its ambitions, today I choose action. The observation is clear: since Coalition Avenir Québec came to power, we have witnessed a weakening of our public finances and a degradation of services to the population. Today I join a team determined to take Quebec's destiny in hand, in order to build a more just, greener and more prosperous society for our children."

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Alexandra Lacoste

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
41.7 pts
Turnout
55.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brigitte Garceau Elected QLP 17,228 57.8
Axel Lellouche PCQ 4,779 16.0
Maïté Beaudoin CAQ 2,909 9.8
Marieve Ruel QS 1,498 5.0
Jonathan Gray Other 1,231 4.1
Qaiser Choudhry Other 792 2.7
Alix Martel PQ 776 2.6
David MacFarquhar Other 614 2.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026