Riding profile
Nelligan
The question
Nelligan: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?
Editorial read
Nelligan, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 66% vote share, against 15% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Monsef Derraji
Sits with PLQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Incumbent 
Monsef Derraji
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger 
Gary Charles
Established entrepreneur and author in the West Island, Gary has built his career around initiative, perseverance and the desire to contribute concretely to his community. His experience in the business world allowed him to develop an understanding of the challenges faced by families, workers and entrepreneurs.
source ↗
Current forecast
PLQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 51.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PLQ | PCQ | Other | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNelligan | 66.3% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.2% +39.2 | 13.2% +1.7 | 2.0% +5.9 | 20.3% −15.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monsef Derraji Elected | PLQ | 17,454 | 52.0 | — |
| Cynthia Lapierre | CAQ | 5,584 | 16.6 | — |
| Gary Charles | PCQ | 5,061 | 15.1 | — |
| Maxime Larue-Bourdages | QS | 1,766 | 5.3 | — |
| Jocelyn Caron | PQ | 1,399 | 4.2 | — |
| Jean Marier | Other | 1,014 | 3.0 | — |
| Neena Hanif | Other | 610 | 1.8 | — |
| Daniel Reiniger | Other | 558 | 1.7 | — |
| Michael Hennawy | Other | 100 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026