Riding profile

Nelligan

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Nelligan: a safe seat for the Quebec Liberals?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 57.1%

    Monsef Derraji incumbent

  • PCQ 18.7%

    Gary Charles

  • CAQ 11.2%

    Tom Tang

  • Other 7.0%

    Michael Wilkinson Canadian Party of Québec

  • PQ 5.1%

    Martine Dubois

  • QS 0.9%

    Dominique Naud

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PCQ CAQ Other
HereNelligan 57.1%18.7%11.2%7.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +33.7 16.1% +2.5 21.3% −10.1 1.7% +5.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nelligan, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Quebec Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 57% vote share, against 19% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Monsef Derraji

Sits with QLP

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QLP Incumbent
    Monsef Derraji

    Monsef Derraji

    Monsef Derraji has been working as an MP to ensure the well-being of his fellow Nelligan residents since 2018. During his term of office in the service of the citizens of Nelligan, the holder of a doctorate in public health from the Université de Montréal, demonstrated leadership in health, immigration, work-employment, the economy, SMEs, innovation and research as a Liberal spokesperson. The MNA for Nelligan was also vice-chair of the National Assembly's Delegation for Relations with Morocco. As Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition, he introduced an amendment close to his heart to ensure recognition of Parkinson's disease as an occupational disease caused by pesticides. Monsef Derraji also initiated the tabling of 2 bills, both passed unanimously: An Act to improve mental health support for entrepreneurs and farmers, and An Act to temporarily limit the fees that can be charged to restaurateurs for online ordering and meal delivery services.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Tom Tang

    Tom Tang

    Tom Tang is a veterinary medicine student at the Université de Montréal. He immigrated to Quebec when he was young. His journey here has given him opportunities to grow, study, and serve his community. Growing up in the west of the Island of Montreal, he has interacted with people from very diverse cultures and backgrounds. Although paths differ, he has found that priorities are often the same: the cost of living, access to quality health care, good schools, safe neighbourhoods and the opportunity to build a better future. Over the years, Tom Tang has served his community in various roles, including as a section sergeant with the Royal Canadian Air Cadets, swimming instructor, community patrol member and veterinary assistant. These experiences taught him the value of responsibility and teamwork, as well as the importance of earning people's trust through concrete actions. For him, politics is not about having all the answers. It's about being ready to listen, learn and make thoughtful decisions that improve people's daily lives. I look forward to bringing curiosity, determination and a fresh perspective as Member of Parliament for Nelligan.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Michael Wilkinson

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Gary Charles

    Gary Charles

    Established entrepreneur and author in the West Island, Gary has built his career around initiative, perseverance and the desire to contribute concretely to his community. His experience in the business world allowed him to develop an understanding of the challenges faced by families, workers and entrepreneurs.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Martine Dubois

    Martine Dubois

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Dominique Naud

    Dominique Naud

    Dominique Naud has been a speech-language pathologist in a CLSC for 15 years and an active Québec solidaire member for more than a decade. A Université de Montréal graduate, she works with young children and serves families and communities in close collaboration with the community sector. A committed feminist and independentist, she participates actively in social struggles and the defence of public services. Her QS path has led to key organizing and mobilization roles. Concerned about the cost of living and social inequalities, she advocates concrete solutions to improve Quebecers' daily lives in an uncertain world.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QLP
Margin
35.4 pts
Turnout
58.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Monsef Derraji Elected QLP 17,454 52.0
Cynthia Lapierre CAQ 5,584 16.6
Gary Charles PCQ 5,061 15.1
Maxime Larue-Bourdages QS 1,766 5.3
Jocelyn Caron PQ 1,399 4.2
Jean Marier Other 1,014 3.0
Neena Hanif Other 610 1.8
Daniel Reiniger Other 558 1.7
Michael Hennawy Other 100 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026