Riding profile

Deux-Montagnes

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Deux-Montagnes: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
51%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.1%

    Linda Vaillant

  • CAQ 27.1%

    Christine Maestracci

  • QLP 18.4%

    Marc Allaire

  • PCQ 13.1%

    Samuel Levesque

  • QS 8.0%

    Guillaume Ducharme

  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereDeux-Montagnes 32.1%27.1%18.4%13.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +4.2 21.3% +5.8 23.4% −5.0 16.1% −3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Deux-Montagnes, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Benoit Charette

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Christine Maestracci

    Christine Maestracci

    An experienced manager recognized for her impactful leadership and ability to mobilize people, Christine Maestracci now works as a strategy consultant for various organizations. She notably served as president and chief executive officer of the Quebec Film and Television Office, after holding the position of vice-president, acquisitions and international distribution, at Québecor Contenu. She has more than 20 years of experience in entertainment, technology and digital media. A passionate defender of local talent and Quebec creativity, both in Quebec and internationally, Christine Maestracci was appointed in 2024 secretary general of the Working Group on the Future of Audiovisual Media in Quebec, a mandate entrusted to her by Quebec’s Minister of Culture and Communications. A member of the Quebec Bar, she holds a bachelor’s degree in law from the Université de Montréal. She has also completed training in leadership and governance and is currently pursuing further development in this field in order to obtain a corporate director certification from the Institute of Corporate Directors. Sensitive to several social issues, she has, for example, volunteered in the fields of culture, women’s professional advancement and perinatal health.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Samuel Levesque

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Linda Vaillant

    Linda Vaillant

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Marc Allaire

    Marc Allaire

    A native of Lanaudière, Marc Allaire has dedicated his life to education, community involvement, and serving others. A high school science teacher since 1997, he firmly believes that every citizen deserves quality public services and a government that listens to their concerns. For nearly 30 years, he has been helping students in Laval and the Lower Laurentians succeed in school. Active in his community, he has been involved for more than 15 years in his local teachers’ union, where he has held various positions. He has also contributed to the development of school sports by founding two soccer programs in the Laval–Laurentides–Lanaudière region and serving as a coach. A passionate lover of travel, culture, and photography, he has explored more than a hundred countries on every continent. In fact, it was his travel experiences that fostered his openness to the world and his desire to connect with people. It was in 2022, during the provincial elections, that he entered politics by running as a candidate for the Quebec Liberal Party in the Deux-Montagnes riding. Inspired by the meetings and conversations he had with residents throughout that first campaign, Marc Allaire is proud to renew his commitment in 2026.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Guillaume Ducharme

    Guillaume Ducharme

    From an early age, Guillaume Ducharme became involved in his community by founding the Jeunes souverainistes de Deux-Montagnes and serving on the board of the Centre du Florès. With more than 15 years of experience in the health and social-services network, he wants to place these major issues at the heart of his campaign. A direct witness to problems accessing services, particularly for marginalized populations, Guillaume believes that the Québec solidaire project and its values are the way forward to repair our public services and build a fairer, more inclusive country.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
29.9 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.4 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Benoît Charette Elected CAQ 15,854 47.1
Guillaume Lalonde PQ 5,777 17.2
Olivier Côté QS 4,766 14.2
Marc Allaire QLP 3,460 10.3
Isabelle Baril PCQ 3,308 9.8
Amavi Tagodoe Other 317 0.9
Hélèna Courteau Other 119 0.3
Dominique Dubois-Massey Other 74 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026