Riding profile

Sainte-Rose

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · mtl

The question

Sainte-Rose: will CAQ lose this seat to QLP?

Current forecast

QLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QLP 38.5%

    Cécile Tremblay

  • PQ 24.7%

    Judith Cardin

  • CAQ 15.6%

    Christopher Skeete incumbent

  • PCQ 11.1%

    Alexandre Arrata

  • QS 8.7%

    Karine Cliche

  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QLP PQ CAQ PCQ
HereSainte-Rose 38.5%24.7%15.6%11.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 23.4% +15.1 27.9% −3.2 21.3% −5.7 16.1% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sainte-Rose, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Liberals ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christopher Skeete

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Christopher Skeete

    Christopher Skeete

    A lifelong resident of Laval, Christopher Skeete settled there to raise his children. With an MBA degree, he took on the challenge of entrepreneurship by creating a healthcare business after serving as a peace officer.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger

    Alexandre Arrata

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Judith Cardin

    Judith Cardin

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Cécile Tremblay

    Cécile Tremblay

    Having worked in the healthcare sector for several decades, Dr. Cécile Tremblay is continuing her commitment to public service by entering provincial politics under the banner of the Quebec Liberal Party. A physician specializing in microbiology and infectious diseases, as well as a clinician-researcher at the CHUM for over twenty years, she distinguished herself during the COVID-19 pandemic through numerous media appearances aimed at making scientific knowledge about the virus’s evolution accessible to the general public. Through her constant presence in the public sphere, she has become an indispensable authority on science communication and public health for people in Quebec. Dr. Tremblay holds a Doctor of Medicine degree from the University of Montreal and specializes in microbiology and infectious diseases; she also completed a research fellowship on HIV at Harvard Medical School. Recognized as a pioneer in advancing knowledge about HIV, she has notably served as the principal investigator for Canada on several major research projects. Drawing on this experience, Dr. Tremblay has a deep understanding of issues related to health and social services. She is particularly attuned to the inequalities affecting vulnerable and marginalized populations, especially with regard to infectious diseases and access to care. This on-the-ground knowledge, combined with solid scientific expertise, will enable her to put her ideas and experience to work for the benefit of all Quebecers. Throughout her career, Dr. Tremblay has also served as director of the Public Health Laboratory and the FRQS AIDS and Infectious Diseases Network. These roles have enabled her to develop recognized expertise in managing complex cases and coordinating multidisciplinary teams. Her social commitment has always been at the heart of her professional journey. Throughout her career, she has dedicated herself to helping the most vulnerable populations, convinced that public health is an essential pillar of the development of a just, equitable, and inclusive society.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Karine Cliche

    Karine Cliche

    A college professor and social-justice and environmental activist since 2005, Karine Cliche is deeply involved in Sainte-Rose.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.5 pts
Turnout
67.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christopher Skeete Elected CAQ 14,091 38.5 —
Michel Trottier QLP 8,778 24.0 —
Karine Cliche QS 5,243 14.3 —
Lyne Jubinville PQ 4,536 12.4 —
Stéphanie Beauchamp PCQ 3,429 9.4 —
Pierrette Kamning Nguendjong Other 304 0.8 —
Simon Filiatrault Other 128 0.3 —
Kevin Fortin Other 91 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026