Riding profile

Blainville

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Blainville: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Blainville, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mario Laframboise

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Mario Laframboise

    Mario Laframboise

    A notary by training, Mario Laframboise has been the Member of Parliament for Blainville since 2014 and caucus president since 2018. He is very attuned to the realities of regions and municipalities, and enjoys extensive political experience.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
64%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.3%
  • CAQ 29.1%
  • PLQ 21.7%
  • PCQ 9.5%
  • QS 7.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PLQ PCQ
HereBlainville 32.3%29.1%21.7%9.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +2.2 20.3% +8.8 27.2% −5.5 13.2% −3.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.0 pts
Turnout
72.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mario Laframboise Elected CAQ 21,149 49.5 —
Frédéric Labelle PQ 6,600 15.4 —
Éric Michaud QS 5,987 14.0 —
Alexandre Mercho PLQ 4,718 11.0 —
Grace Daou PCQ 4,175 9.8 —
Marie-France Hanna Other 140 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026