Riding profile

Blainville

Provincial riding — QC · Suburban · rest

The question

Blainville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 29.4%

    Nadine Le Gal

  • CAQ 29.0%

    Mario Laframboise incumbent

  • QLP 19.8%

    Sébastien Daoust

  • PCQ 13.2%

    Pascal Quévillon

  • QS 8.2%

    Louis Piette

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereBlainville 29.4%29.0%19.8%13.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +1.5 21.3% +7.7 23.4% −3.6 16.1% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Blainville, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mario Laframboise

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Mario Laframboise

    Mario Laframboise

    A notary by training, Mario Laframboise has been the Member of Parliament for Blainville since 2014 and caucus president since 2018. He is very attuned to the realities of regions and municipalities, and enjoys extensive political experience.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Marie-Claude Archambault

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Pascal Quévillon

    Pascal Quévillon

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Nadine Le Gal

    Nadine Le Gal

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sébastien Daoust

    Sébastien Daoust

    A business analyst by training, entrepreneur, and educator, Sébastien Daoust has built his career at the intersection of management, entrepreneurship, and Quebec’s agri-food sector. With a master’s degree in management science, specializing in business process optimization and information systems implementation, he led a team of business analysts for several years. He also shares his expertise with the next generation as an adjunct professor at HEC Montréal, where he continues to teach today. Fifteen years ago, Mr. Daoust took the plunge into entrepreneurship by purchasing his own vineyard, a small business that now employs nine people. This experience gave him firsthand insight into the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in Quebec, particularly in the agricultural sector: bureaucratic red tape, labor issues, market development, and business succession. Active in the wine and agri-food sectors, the PLQ candidate in Blainville serves on the boards of directors of the Conseil des vins du Québec, Marchés publics de Montréal, and the Conseil des appellations réservées et des termes valorisants. As the father of two young daughters, Sébastien Daoust now wants to put his experience as a manager and entrepreneur to work for Quebec. Convinced that prosperity depends on more productive, competitive, and better-supported businesses, he is entering politics to reduce the administrative burden, facilitate business succession, and give greater prominence to local products and expertise.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Louis Piette

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.0 pts
Turnout
72.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mario Laframboise Elected CAQ 21,149 49.5 —
Frédéric Labelle PQ 6,600 15.4 —
Éric Michaud QS 5,987 14.0 —
Alexandre Mercho QLP 4,718 11.0 —
Grace Daou PCQ 4,175 9.8 —
Marie-France Hanna Other 140 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026